Instant Analysis: Josh Gordon Returns

Mo Brewington

It ranks as the 13th highest single season yardage total among receivers of all time – 1,646 yards. It came on 87 receptions, and resulted in nine touchdowns, thrown by a trio of substandard quarterbacks. It helped a hapless team achieve a 4-12 record, when they otherwise might have lost all 16 games, for a Head Coach who was only employed for one season. It was a promise of even greater achievement that remains unfulfilled, and until today seemed like it never would be.

These are the statistics and circumstances surrounding Josh Gordon’s bust-out 2013 campaign. What followed was a well-documented string of suspensions, transgressions and allegations, which forced any sane football fan, or dynasty owner to conclude we would never see him take the field again. All that changed today, as Commissioner Roger Goodell granted Gordon his “conditional” reinstatement for the 2016 season.

While Gordon will first have to serve a four game suspension to start the year, he will be eligible for the Browns week five contest against New England, who ironically, will be getting their franchise quarterback, Tom Brady out on parole the very same week.

For the faithful, (or desperate) dynasty owners among us who were steadfast in their belief that this transcendent talent would one day return and continue his rise to NFL stardom, you have been rewarded. We have to stop and analyze, with all that’s changed in Cleveland since Gordon last took the field, what should we expect from this 25 year old receiver who seems like he’s been in mothballs for a decade?

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First, there’s the adjustment to new Brown’s coach, Hue Jackson’s scheme. As the Head Coach for Oakland in 2011, Jackson threw the ball just 524 times with Carson Palmer and Jason Campbell combining to take the lion’s share of the snaps. The 2016 Browns will rely on the winner of the Robert Griffin/Josh McCown Training Camp battle to guide the offense. Jackson’s teams in Cincinnati threw the ball about 55% of the time until Jeremy Hill’s emergence, at which point they had nearly a 50/50 run pass ratio. Both quarterbacks become more appealing QB2 options with Gordon’s return.

The takeaway here is that Jackson would like a balanced attacked given the choice, but in the absence of a bona fide workhorse back, he is willing to air it out. The closest thing Cleveland has to a workhorse back is Isaiah Crowell, who appears he will survive his own scandalous behavior this summer, and have a shot at carrying the load. You can expect the Browns to give their best effort at being a balanced offense, but having a very young inexperienced roster, still learning how to win (read – behind on the scoreboard – often), they are likely to put the ball in the air a ton this season. Gordon should be the number one target upon his return.

As far as who stands to lose the most targets with Gordon’s return, it’s dual between rookie wide receiver Corey Coleman, and one of last year’s fantasy darlings, tight end Gary Barnidge.

With the number one job in sight prior to today’s news, Coleman’s stock price will suffer a slight correction. The Browns weren’t projected to be a high volume pass attack to begin with. With questionable quarterback play, and now being bumped down a notch on the food chain, Coleman’s current fourth round ADP could slide by a round or so. Ultimately, his own talent and the questions surrounding how long Gordon can keep his nose clean will ensure Coleman remains a top target of dynasty owners.

As for Barnidge, he likely won’t see a big adjustment in his 11th round status (TE12). Age, and the unlikelihood of a repeat performance have already curbed owner’s expectations for 2016. It’s worth considering, however, that Gordon’s presence may open up the middle of the field for the veteran tight end by keeping safeties in the deep third of the field to guard against Gordon’s deep speed. This could end up being a huge blessing in disguise for Barnidge owners.

As for Gordon, he was listed as WR60, the 120th player off the board overall in our latest Dynasty mock draft for July, despite the uncertainty surrounding his status. The allure of that 87/1,664/9 stat line from 2013 will simply be too much for many owners to resist. You should not be surprised to see him ascend into the third, or even second round of your upcoming drafts. Talent like his is simply too tempting to pass on.

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mo brewington
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