Consistent Greatness 2016: Wide Receivers

James Simpson

It is the era of the receiver.

It has been this way for a few years now, but just looking through the names available at the top I can’t help but smile with joy and be grateful for the players we are watching perform.

In a purely football context, it’s simply something to behold. In a dynasty context, however, it creates a few questions and conundrums. Many of us have been trained to build our teams with receivers anyway, but with the production and proliferation of talent, we must ask a few questions:

  • Does this mean we should acquire as many receivers as possible because they are simply so talented?
  • Can we wait on receivers because there are so many available outside the top players?
  • Who will remain at the top?
  • Who will break in and who will fall off?
  • Are some receivers getting too much hype purely because young receivers are expected to hit?

I can’t answer them without taking on as much as possible about player ability, age, coaching, opportunities, past performance and many other things, but I want to get an idea of how all of these players who we know have talent have performed against their peers over the last three years. The price for receivers has sky rocketed to the highest ever, but which of them have been worth it?

Wide Receivers

Why do I love receivers? They’ve always been the group I’ve been most enamoured with, both from a technical standpoint (the precision of routes, the awareness to find the open space in a game played at 100mph and the focus required to catch a rocket), and as a fan (there’s nothing like that spectacular catch or electrifying catch-and-run).

The Method

For more of the background of the method, see part one. The aim of this series is to work out how many times each player scored ‘WR1′ (top 12), WR2’ (13-24) or ‘WR1/2’ (top 24) points. Rather than counting how many places they actually had in the top 12 or 24, I calculate a baseline for points required to reach each of these goals and see how many times a player scored above the baseline. They were (based on the last three years):

WR1 – 20.3

WR2 – 15.0

This is significantly higher than running backs, showing the high level of production at receiver right now, how difficult it is to be in the top scorers and how fewer backs are maintaining high standards. I took the top 75 receivers in the June DLF ADP data, removed rookies any players who haven’t yet placed in the top 24 (Kevin White, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett, Sammie Coates, Jeff Janis and DeAndre Smelter) to end up with a list of 51. I then worked out how many times they have hit the baselines in the past three years and compared it to the number of games they have placed to calculate a percentage.

The Key

  • GP – Games played
  • WR1/2 – Weeks the player scored 15.0 points or more
  • WR1 – Weeks the player scored 20.3 points or more
  • WR2 – Weeks the player scored between 15.0 and 20.3 points
  • % – Percentage of weeks the player placed in each category versus games played

Notes

  • I used PPR scoring from the FFToday stats page
  • Playoff games are not included

The Results

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Rather than putting the data at the end of the piece, this time I thought I’d put the data right up front so you can have a peruse, then we will proceed to break it down further.

PlayerAgeGPWR1%WR2%WR1/2%SS%
Odell Beckham Jr.232715566222178830
Antonio Brown27482348153138791327
DeAndre Hopkins24481123919204236
Allen Robinson2226623727135028
Julio Jones273618509252775822
Mike Evans22298286211448310
Amari Cooper22165311663816
AJ Green274415341023255737
Dez Bryant274115376152151410
Sammy Watkins23287256211346311
Keenan Allen243712324111643411
Alshon Jeffery264112291229245937
Brandin Cooks2226831415124600
Demaryius Thomas2848183814293267715
TY Hilton264791911232043511
Randall Cobb25381026924195025
Donte Moncrief223031041372300
Devante Parker23811322533800
Jarvis Landry2332413928134113
Jordy Nelson313212386191856516
Kelvin Benjamin251642542585000
Jordan Matthews2332825413123826
Dorial Green-Beckham2314171721400
Brandon Marshall324519427162658511
Michael Floyd2646613920153337
Jeremy Maclin28318267231548413
Golden Tate27489191123204212
Julian Edelman303912311128235938
Tyler Lockett231521332053300
John Brown263131061992913
Allen Hurns243161931092926
Emmanuel Sanders29471328919224724
Doug Baldwin2748919613153124
Eric Decker294610221328235037
Devin Funchess22161621331900
Stefon Diggs22133231843100
Marvin Jones26323961992813
DeSean Jackson29391128718184625
Larry Fitzgerald324610221124214624
Michael Crabtree2837514616113013
Nelson Agholor231200181800
Torrey Smith2746613920153300
Willie Snead23151742753300
Tavon Austin25446141271612
Josh Gordon25196326321263421
Markus Wheaton2537133841113
Davante Adams23260031231200
Travis Benjamin26384112561600
Kamar Aiken27281441451800
Kendall Wright2640513615112800
Martavis Bryant2421629314943210

Now, the top and bottom players in each category:

Top WR1/2%

top wr12

  • The king of consistency and the greatest fantasy receiver in perhaps the greatest era of receivers is Antonio Brown. He’s in his prime, and I don’t even expect him to fall off. It’s astounding to watch, and if he can be acquired for any sort of ‘ageist’ discount, then pay that top dollar
  • Remember Josh Gordon on the field? Wasn’t he great?
  • Jordy Nelson is an on-field superstar, but will a recovering Jordy be the same? I’m thinking Randall Cobb could be in for a big year
  • Kelvin Benjamin obviously has a small sample size, but what he was able to do in 2014 is on par with the top players per game

Bottom WR1/2%

bottom wr12

  • For the most part, you have to give a pass to young players who haven’t actually had the chance to learn and develop. Markus Wheaton, Tavon Austin and Kendall Wright are not those players, and for me their time is up
  • Travis Benjamin and Marvin Jones are moving on to new pastures, and this tends to blow up all history
  • Donte Moncrief is the most highly-touted in this group, but has he earned it yet? No. I think he will ‘break out’, but not to the superstar heights some anticipate

Top WR1%

top wr1

  • Only one receiver has scored in the top 12 in more than half of his games played: Odell Beckham Jr. OBJ is on another level
  • Beckham is also the only player in the top eight under the age of 27. The top of the list is filled with veterans – evidence that the most points are scored when players are in their prime. As Julio Jones, Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant and AJ Green hang around, I’m sure this average age will go up
  • I love to see two youngsters who I am very fond of on this list in Amari Cooper and Brandin Cooks – a sign of what is to come
  • Keenan Allen isn’t yet as highly regarded as he should be
  • Julian Edelman surprised me with his inclusion as I figured him to be more of a WR2 scorer

Bottom WR1%

bottom wr1

  • Again, Wheaton hasn’t shown enough for me. I’m looking at Sammie Coates as the break through in that offense outside of the obvious producers
  • While Willie Snead impressed, he didn’t exactly win too many games for owners single-handedly
  • Torrey Smith’s DeSean Jackson-like up-and-down early years have dwindled, but I do expect a bit of a rebound in Chip Kelly’s offense
  • Michael Floyd will never be who you wanted him to be. I’m sorry

Top WR2%

top wr2

  • Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker has super similar numbers. Is that what we should expect moving forward? Is that lack of WR1 production due to the disappointing Ryan Tannehill?
  • It’s a strong list, so there certainly isn’t too much negativity associated with it. However, a low WR1 % makes me question whether a player can be a top producer and game-changer (Eric Decker, Landry, Snead). Do you stick with these solid performers or take a risk on potential elsewhere?

Bottom WR2%

bottom wr2

  • When Austin does well, he goes big
  • Similarly, Cooper was a top 12 scorer in just under a third of his games, but missed the top 24 in ten of 16
  • Stefon Diggs stands out as someone who did offer some upside with three WR1 weeks. He may have the chance at more with rookie Laquon Treadwell putting more pressure on opposing defenses

Superstar Weeks

Good is good. Great is great. But sometimes we want more. Who really stands out at scoring huge games that would single-handedly have given your team a win? ‘Superstar weeks’ can tell us just that. I calculate the baseline for a superstar week by using the difference between the average WR1 score (20.3) and the average top overall wide receiver score per week (38.1), which is 29.2 points.

top wrss

  • Beckham has scored over 29.2 points in eight of his 27 games, and Brown has done it 13 times in his last 48. These are the players that you should be relentless in tracking their value for any chance to buy
  • Gordon and Nelson are at rare low points in value and ADP. If you have any hope that they come back to full strength, buy now at a discount
  • Jeremy Maclin and TY Hilton look good among these peers, but notice how quickly the percentages drop after the elite few

Conclusion

It always comes down to the same thing for me. If you have a team built up of great players, regardless of position, you’ll be in great shape. At this time in dynasty football, I wouldn’t argue against drafting receivers with your first five picks, trading for receivers and filling all of your bench spots with them. There are simply so many good ones, and you can hold on while the other positions are in flux.

However, I would never overspend simply for a ‘position’ – we have to focus on the individuals. In fact, I entered a startup last year in Ryan McDowell’s Kitchen Sink 3 league planning to build around wideouts, but the auction prices were so high, my squad is made up of almost entirely running backs. I didn’t win the league, and I don’t know how the team will fare moving forward, but I felt there were enough receivers around to wait and gradually build depth.

Using this data, as well as other sources, I’ve identified a few players who might be undervalued and who I am targeting heading into 2016: Dez Bryant (WR9), Demaryius Thomas (WR14), Randall Cobb (WR17), Doug Baldwin (WR40), DeSean Jackson (WR47) and Torrey Smith (WR52). I believe they will all outperform expectations in 2016, and I’m trying to get them before they have a value spike.

Who stood out to you? Who are your targets heading in to the 2016 season?

Previous Years

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james simpson