Four Rookies Being Overdrafted

Rookies are always an intriguing part of dynasty leagues. They are of course one of the best ways to add value and talent to your roster, but the vast majority of them also end up being busts within a few years. I think as a whole, the dynasty community places way too much value on rookies. We tend to assume every player can and will reach their fullest potential. This continues year after year even though we have seen time and time again it just doesn’t happen. The lure of perhaps landing the next Odell Beckham Jr means everyone is willing to risk getting Stephen Hill. In some ways it makes sense, but we need to keep in mind that for every Beckham there are at least five if not ten Hills.

Almost all rookies get a lot of hype each and every year, but there are a few who I feel are getting a little out of control in one way or another. Here is my list of players to tap the brakes on just a little bit.

Ezekiel Elliot, RB DAL

Might as well start this off with a bang! Let me start by saying he is and should continue to be the unquestioned top selection in all rookie drafts. His place in this article is more in relationship to where he is being placed in terms of the big picture. I understand the love. He’s a great talent, has a complete skill set, and he landed in the ideal situation. However, I have some issue with taking a player who hasn’t even played in an NFL pre-season game let alone a real NFL game and making him a top player. He’s already a top ten pick in our recent ADP data, pretty much neck and neck with Todd Gurley for the first running back off the board. That’s just a bit too high for someone who hasn’t even taken a snap yet.

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Do I expect Elliot to be great? Yes, I do. In fact, a month or so ago when I was on the DLF podcast I mentioned I think Elliot could be better than Gurley. Could is the key word though. Until I see a few games out of him, there is still an awful lot of risk. There have been numerous “can’t miss” prospects who turned into busts. That risk is there. Plus, we need to keep in mind that situations can change quickly. As our very own Nick Whalen discussed in a fantastic article back in May, a lot could change in the next few years in Dallas. How comfortable do you really feel about making him your first overall pick in a startup? I think he’ll be great, but I’ve been wrong before. That risk needs to be factored into the equation.

Sterling Shepard, WR NYG

I’m nitpicking a little bit on this one, but when we are talking about early first round picks I think it is important. Let’s take a quick look at the timeline for Shepard. He was an early second round pick on most people’s boards after the college season ended. He slid into the late first round after some more talented players decided to return to college. An impressive combine bumped him up another spot or two, and he was sitting somewhere in the 8-10 range on most boards when we entered the NFL draft. After the draft he was locked into the fifth or sixth slot, but in the recent rookie ADP data we gathered he’s going as early as second overall with an average ADP of the third slot.

Was there a game Shepard played in that I missed? I ask this somewhat facetiously, but what has happened to make someone who was a late first round pick a few months ago to be considered at the second overall slot? I understand bumping him up a bit due to a great combine and a favorable situation, but he’s still the same player he was a few months ago. I have no problem with him in the four to six range, but I think bumping him up higher is a mistake. Shepard could very easily lead all rookies this year when it comes to his statistics. However, unlike most of the other prospects who have holes in their game, I think Shepard is already pretty close to a finished product. He doesn’t have a lot of room in his game to improve, which means even though he could be the best rookie receiver in 2016, he will quickly be surpassed by a lot of the others. He is a higher floor, but lower ceiling selection who doesn’t have the long term potential a lot of the other first round players possess. I understand the allure, but drafting a less talented rookie because he’s going to produce early is often a mistake. Leave him alone until the middle of the first round.

Braxton Miller, WR HOU

One of the more intriguing prospects of this year’s draft class, Miller is someone who is being way over drafted because everyone knows his name and the story associated with him. Miller was one of the key players in continuing the Ohio State dynasty into the 2010s. He posed unique challenges for college defenses as one of the best athletes in all of college football who just so happened to be able to throw a pretty good pass as well. He spent the last year of his college career trying to convert to a new position though. Getting drafted in the middle rounds at his new position is a huge testament to his physical abilities, because there isn’t any way he can make that transition in just a year. He’s extremely raw.

There have been a lot of players who transitioned from quarterback in college to something else in the NFL. Antwaan Randle-El and Julian Edelman are the two who come to might right away as being highly successful with the transition. However, for every player to successfully make the switch, how many failed? Miller has massive upside, but there is a lot of risk. He’s going to need some luck and some time before he can be a productive receiver in the NFL. Exactly how long are you willing to wait for a player like him? He’s currently going in the early to middle second round, which is too rich for my blood. I love him as a third round flier in leagues with decent sized rosters, but not a top 18 selection.

Keyarris Garrett, WR CAR

I’m a little baffled by Garrett’s last few months. I thought he was going to be a solid day three pick in the NFL draft. I wasn’t as high on him heading into the draft as some others, but I was still surprised when he went undrafted. In some ways, being undrafted is a blessing in disguise because you get to pick the situation you want to walk into. This was the case for Garrett as he ended up with Cam Newton and the Panthers. Since then, he’s been a fixture in the late second or early third round of rookie drafts.

In situations like this, it is important to remember that all 32 teams passed on Garrett multiple times for a reason. I don’t know what every team would say is that reason, but I’m sure they all had at least one. Each team invests massive amounts of time and energy into scouting, and none of those teams felt he was worth a pick. While this doesn’t mean he’s doomed, because we all know undrafted guys who have been successful, it definitely doesn’t help. He was a very limited receiver in college, almost always lining up on the right side and running one of a select few routes. He has a long way to go if he’s going to become an NFL receiver, and he’s likely to be on the roster bubble during training camp. He’s a definite risk, and there are a lot of other players I would prefer in the late second or early third round of my rookie drafts.

Overall, this is a very strange year for the rookie class. There aren’t a lot of standouts which makes the various tiers extremely large in some cases. A lot of this year’s draft comes down to which players and teams you trust the most. It will be interesting to see how we view this draft class in a few years.

Who are some of the rookies you feel are currently being over drafted in your leagues?

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