The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter Posted On June 7, 2016

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

*Editor’s Note – For total team evaluations, please be sure to use the DLF Newsletter Team Advice Form!*

This is a 12-team, $100 salary cap league with max three-year contracts with certain restricted tags for free agents, and six points per passing touchdown. I have been rolling with Philip Rivers as my quarterback but have been offered to receive Aaron Rodgers at ($4 in 2016, then $17 in 2017-2019) for giving Stefon Diggs ($1, 2016-18) and Mike Evans ($8 in 2016, $1 in 2017). I would likely lose Evans in Free Agent bidding after 2017 but would likely receive a first round rookie pick as compensation. Is this worth the upgrade to Rodgers? – Ryan in SD

Not for me. While it remains fair to posit that, despite a down year, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is the best in the game, I don’t believe Chargers signal caller Philip Rivers is overly far behind. Many forget that when top target Keenan Allen was healthy for the first half of the season, Rivers averaged a robust weekly line of 344 yards and three touchdowns, good for a whopping 31.8 weekly points given your scoring setting. Obviously he cooled off, but much of that had to do with San Diego’s near annual injury collapse, both to the skill positions and the offensive line.

Continuing, you also have both Tampa receiver Mike Evans and Minnesota wideout Stefon Diggs under reasonable contracts. I can understand your worries of losing Evans in a bidding war down the line, but that’s two full years away. During that time he’s more than likely to function as a top fantasy asset, as I anticipate positive touchdown regression coming his way.

If this was a superflex league I’d likely be singing a different tune, but in a 12-team league with only one starting passer, I just don’t see the value. Rivers is still “only” 34, and should have several quality fantasy years left. I’d rather take the chance that he keeps playing well, and at worst doesn’t lose you any weekly contests, and keep rolling out with your depth at receiver.

I am currently debating on dealing Rob Gronkowski and Brandon Marshall for a high end receiver and a startable tight end. I also have Randall Cobb, Mark Ingram and Latavius Murray to round out the rest of my lineup. I won the league last year with this team (and Megatron) but the odds of me replicating is fairly slim. I see a possible regression with Marshall and he’s 32, so I’m a bit worried on my receiver front. Would you send out some feelers on guys like Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins or Odell Beckham, or do I aim lower and look into Dez Bryant, AJ Green or Demaryius Thomas? Should I just stay where I am and wait? – Alex in Saskatchewan

This sounds like a potential “TJTT,” or “trade just to trade.” You have the best tight end in dynasty football in Rob Gronkowski, who offers an incredibly rare combination of skill, proven production, and relative youth. I’ve spoke in this space before about why it’s fair to question whether other positional options such as Jordan Reed are catching up, but the long and short of it is I need to see a lot more high-end consistency for me to believe that. Gronk is arguably the best relative mismatch in the game, and a dark-horse contender for a top-five startup pick.

As for Jets receiver Brandon Marshall, I wouldn’t be worrying yourself about regression. I’m not one for “hot takes,” so when I say something like this that seems out of left field I truly mean it – Marshall was the best combination fantasy and real life receiver in the league last year.

The only other top-50 PPR receiver to have a higher percentage of WR1 weeks was Julio Jones, and the only receiver to have a higher percentage of combined WR1/WR2 weeks was Julian Edelman. In fact, Marshall was a weekly WR3 or better in a whopping 15 of 16 weeks – in other words, he was a startable option all but once. You simply can’t ignore that type of consistent greatness.

He also had an AIR score of 1.23 (fourth best out of 50), and wasn’t overly dependent on any facet of production (receptions, yards or touchdowns). As for real life, he had 36.2% of the Jets’ first downs on only 28.6% of the team’s targets. So while many have postulated that Marshall flourished due to Ryan Fitzpatrick’s career year, I’d argue it’s the other way around.

Regardless, he’s only a late fourth round pick in startup drafts, largely due to his “advanced” age. As such, I just don’t think you’re going to get the return on him that he warrants. Given that, as well as my belief that I don’t see his fantasy output coming to a screeching halt anytime soon, I think you should just keep who you have.

After failing to capitalize on the second overall playoff seed last year, I made a bold, win now, 5-for-2 trade and am told by several that I should have buyer’s remorse. Essentially I traded away depth at RB/TE for QB/WR firepower. I gave up Jay Ajayi, TJ Yeldon, Jarvis Landry, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Matt Ryan, and 2016 pick 2.09 for Mike Evans, Russell Wilson and 2016 pick 2.06. The only actually-used firepower from last year that I can see I gave up is Yeldon and Landry, which I’m hoping is more than offset by Evans and Wilson. Did I increase my chances at winning it all this year or not so much? – JohnnyD in Texas

I’m always of the belief that fortune favors the bold. I’m also of the belief that when league-mates complain as vociferously as they appear to be in this case, they’re more than likely jealous that they lacked to fortitude to make a similar splash. All told though, I think you’ll get the last laugh here.

I’m a big fan of Jarvis Landry, and have even compared him Evans in terms of production through two seasons. Evans certainly has the edge in touchdowns, but the yards are relatively similar if you factor in Landry’s rushing production, and Landry gets the definitive check mark in receptions. In fact, many don’t know this, but Landry currently holds the NFL record for the most receptions through a player’s first two years of his career – while it’s en vogue to mock the “extended handoff” nature of his average depth of target, if what Landry did was easy to do, he wouldn’t hold that record.

With that said, I think it’s easy to argue Evans’ upside is higher, and to me he’s the best asset in the deal. And while I’m usually against valuing quarterbacks highly, Russell Wilson is a surefire top-four option at the position, and a tier one guy in my opinion. Both players should offer advantages at your starting positions.

As for what you gave up, I wouldn’t worry about it. Aside from Landry, you didn’t lose any real starting talent. Though I like TJ Yeldon, it’s easy to see how his value took a hit with the signing of Chris Ivory. Both Jay Ajayi and Austin Seferian-Jenkins are unproven, and you’ve upgraded over Matt Ryan by acquiring Wilson. Ultimately, depth doesn’t do you any good if your bench players aren’t scoring you points – whenever you can make a consolidation deal to upgrade your starting lineup, I’m in favor of the move.

I currently hold picks 1.06 and 1.10 in my rookie draft. Would those be enough to get to number one pick? – Thomas in Kansas

To quote Mike Bean, CEO of Gryzzl, “We don’t like to say ‘no’ here, so I’ll just say ‘nah, brah!’”

The fact is, owners are doing just about whatever it takes to acquire the services of Dallas rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott. I’ve seen many examples, but via the Mailbag as well as on Twitter, including one trade as extreme as trading 2016 pick 1.02 and Doug Martin for pick 1.01. While I’m a staunch conservative and that colors my viewpoint, I simply can’t wrap my head around selling off a top-five dynasty running back and your pick of the best 2016 rookie receiver for an unproven entity, even if it’s Zeke.

So with the “elite to pseudo elite” tier canonically viewed as five deep, I just don’t see any way 1.06 and 1.10 gets the job done. In fact, given the tier break, it might take both of those picks just to get to pick 1.04 or so. So while it never hurts to try, I have a feeling you’re going to have to put a lot more skin in the game to get the job done.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.