Running Backs Whose Value May Be Peaking Right Now

I love trading. Many of us do. It’s one of the great things about the dynasty format.

One of the toughest things to know as a fantasy owner is when is the right time to cash out on an asset. Unless you’re Phil Mickelson, there is some guessing involved, but it can be educated guessing.

If you’ve run across my work on DLF, you may be familiar with some of my trade pieces. I do a Bargain Shopping Series, where I elaborate on buy-low options, and I’ve also done some pieces on sell-high candidates.

Like I said, I love trading.

You know what I don’t love? Running backs.

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The position was turned on its head last year — even more so than usual — and our rankings were completely berserk in the middle of the 2015 season. With Marshawn Lynch struggling, Doug Martin excelling, Eddie Lacy eating and Dion Lewis playing the Shane Vereen role better than Vereen ever did, no one knew where to slot anyone. That’s to say nothing of Thomas Rawls, David Johnson and Devonta Freeman — all of whom saw their values rise in swift, unexpected fashion over the past 12 months.

Here’s a look at our ADP from August 2015 startup mocks compared to data from our May mocks. This is scary. Just a reminder: these are staff startup mocks comprised of some of the best dynasty minds in the business.

Whew! That’s crazy.

Other than Bell and Gurley, every top-10 running back from August of last year has seen their value drop fairly significantly. Bell only played in six games because of a knee injury, so Gurley is the only player on this list who provided owners with top-level production in 2015 while raising his value — and his value didn’t see a massive jump, mostly because he was close to a top-20 overall asset before playing a snap in the NFL.

Because of the year-to-year chaos at running back, when I have a running back whose value is on the rise, I shop him like a madman (which I just found out is one word). If I think I have a player — at any position, not just running backs — whose value is peaking, it terrifies me. It eats away at me until I find a willing trade partner. I can’t stand the thought of watching an asset’s value plummet on my roster.

A motto I have spewed several times in my trade pieces is “buy at funerals and sell at birthdays,” with the main idea being to always be cognisant of a player’s value, risk and upside. Just when you think you’ve landed on a rising star, it may actually be the opportune time to deal him, and when everyone has given up on the injury-prone tight end, it could be the perfect time to invest in him.

With that in mind, let’s start focusing in on the current running back market.

You wouldn’t have to work too hard to convince me any top-tier dynasty running back is a sell-high option, but I believe there are a handful of backs whose value may be peaking right now. This isn’t an argument against (spoiler alert) Lamar Miller’s talent or ability. Rather, it’s about his value as an asset and weighing the risk reward of his value. Because of the position these assets play and their current value, I think it’s at least worth dangling them in trades this off-season to see what you can get.

Last time I did a list of sell-high options, I received some questions regarding what people should ask for in return for some of the players, so I’ll throw out a couple hypothetical trades with each one. Obviously, I don’t know the specifics of your league or the rosters in your league. Maybe you won’t be able to get as much in return for the player, or maybe you can get more, which is great. Every league is different, and every owner is different. These trade ideas are meant to be used as a rough guideline.

Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams

One of the best running back prospects in recent memory, all Gurley did his rookie season was look like a star from the get go. In turn, he is one of the more highly-coveted players in dynasty. In May startup mock drafts, he was the first running back off the board and the seventh overall player.

My question is: how much higher can his value possibly get? I could be wrong, but for most of us, I think we, as a dynasty community, have probably moved past the days when we rank any running back among the top two or three overall players, meaning Gurley has just about reached his ceiling. Even if he comes out and lights it up again in 2016, which he very well may, Gurley will likely only see a slight boost in value.

On the other side of it, Le’Veon Bell has basically maintained his value over the past 12 months despite a serious injury, so Gurley should be close to as valuable 12 months from now, barring something catastrophic. I’d consider moving him regardless of my situation, but if I was in the midst of a rebuild, trading Gurley would be a way to turn one great asset into multiple really valuable assets.

If Gurley was a receiver, I’d be building my team around him, but he’s a running back. We are all aware of the inherent pitfalls of the running back position, namely injuries and short careers. Now may be the time to cash in on Gurley, and you should be able to get a small country in return.

Possible trades: Gurley for Demaryius Thomas and a 2017 first; Gurley for Dorial Green-Beckham, a 2017 first and a 2017 second; Gurley for C.J. Anderson, a 2017 first and 2016 1.5; Gurley for Jerick McKinnon, Donte Moncrief and a 2017 first.

Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami Dolphins

Ajayi has seemed like a player many in the fantasy community have doubted ever since his knee raised concerns at last year’s NFL Draft. With it looking like he’s going to be the lead guy in Miami — or at least get every chance to be the top dog — people are starting to come around on him, mostly because he looks like he’s in line for volume, which is certainly important.

Ajayi’s value has continually risen throughout the off-season as Lamar Miller left and Miami didn’t add what most people consider a true three-down back in the draft or free agency. Ajayi’s the 24th-ranked running back in our staff rankings, with no one having him higher than RB18. Unlike most of the backs on this list, his value has a lot of room to grow. If he comes out and plays great in 2016, he’ll shoot up the rankings as a top performer at a thin position.

On the flip side, if Ajayi doesn’t fare well with his opportunity (a la Montee Ball or Andre Ellington), his stock is going to fall. Opportunity is a lot of the battle in fantasy — and Ajayi is getting a big chance — but I have no idea how he’s going to do. We may look back six months from now and realize his value peaked this off-season, when the allure of his opportunity outweighed concerns about how he’d do with said opportunity.

Possible trades: Ajayi for 2016 1.10; Ajayi and 2016 2.1 for Melvin Gordon; Ajayi for Dion Lewis; Ajayi and 2016 2.8 for Eric Decker.

David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals

Johnson exploded onto the scene with a 187-yard, three-score game last December against the Philadelphia Eagles. It was one of the best — if not the best — outings by a running back in 2015. It was also Johnson’s only 100-yard game of his career. After his eruption, he averaged 39.75 rushing yards per game over Arizona’s final four games, including two playoff games. He did, however, average 58.25 receiving yards per game, displaying all-around ability as the Cardinals deployed him as an every-down weapon.

Similar to what I said with Gurley, I’m not really here to argue against Johnson’s talents. What I’m more concerned with is his value, which is think may be topped out right now. Johnson is the fourth-ranked back in our staff rankings, and he was the 19th overall player taken in our May mocks.

Not only does that seem pretty lofty, at least in my eyes, for a back with an extremely limited sample size, but his value can’t go too much higher from here. It’s very similar to Gurley (and the next two backs). Even if Johnson comes out and has 1,500 total yards in 2016, how much higher will his value be? It’ll rise, but I don’t think it’ll be too significant. I mean, he’s already going right behind Demaryius Thomas and just before Randall Cobb and Jarvis Landry — all of whom are safer bets for consistent production in the future. If he comes out and doesn’t play well this fall, there’s plenty of room for his value to fall.

Possible trades: Johnson for Demaryius Thomas. Johnson for Jordan Matthews and 2016 1.10. Johnson and Michael Crabtree for Kevin White and a 2017 first; Johnson and a 2017 first for Allen Robinson and 2017 second.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Elliott has basically the same value as Johnson, coming off the board as the 17th overall player in May mocks. While Johnson has a small sample size, Elliott has no NFL sample size. Similar to just about everyone else, I’m in love with Elliott’s game and have him as my top player in this class. We all know how ideal his landing spot is with the Cowboys, and I fully expect Elliott to have a good career in the NFL. With the current wasteland of running backs, Elliott is easily a top-10 back.

With that said — similar to Gurley and Johnson — his value is so high right now, it can barely climb. People are going Black Friday crazy for Elliott. In our June startup mocks, Elliott actually went off the board eighth overall (first running back) in one draft. The 1.01, which is interchangeable with Elliott, has gotten extremely expensive, and it’s worth it to see if you can net a king’s ransom in return. If you have 1.01 and you’re in the midst of a rebuild, you could fill a couple holes — and nab a couple valuable lottery tickets — by dealing the pick. At a minimum, it’s worth seeing what’s out there in your league. You’ll never know what you can get if you don’t shop it.

Possible trades: Elliott and a 2017 second for Julio Jones; Elliott, Jay Ajayi and 2016 3.5 for Odell Beckham. Elliott and a 2017 third for Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jerick McKinnon, 2016 1.5 and a 2017 first.

Lamar Miller, RB, Houston Texans

Miller has probably been underrated for too long, but apparently in line for the consistent workload he never got with the Miami Dolphins, Miller has jumped up the rankings. In May, he was the fifth running back off the board and 25th overall player.

You’re probably tired of my same song and dance with many of these running backs, but it applies to Miller, too. He’s a good back, but his value — a top 25 overall player — is probably nearing it’s peak. If Miller comes out and has an outstanding 2016 season, he may become a top-three running back, but, as we saw with the ADP data at the beginning of the article, it’s just not that likely.

Miller was a nice buy-low investment 12 months ago, when he was the 15th running back and 48th overall player off the board in our June 2015 startup mocks. Now, a year later, Miller may be a sell-high option.

Possible trades: Miller for Breshad Perriman, Martavis Bryant and a 2017 first. Miller and Drew Brees for Dez Bryant. Miller for Nelson Agholor, Kenneth Dixon and a 2017 first. Miller for Brandon Marshall, Jeremy Hill and a 2017 second. Miller for Tevin Coleman, 2016 1.5 and a 2017 first.

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