Rookie SWOT: Paxton Lynch

Bruce Matson

Editor’s Note: As our coverage of the 2016 NFL Draft and its impact on fantasy football continues, we bring you our 2016 Rookie SWOT series. These articles will feature video highlights, combine reviews, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats, short-term expectations, long-term expectations and rookie draft advice for over 30 of the best dynasty league prospects from this year’s draft. We’ll follow that up with team-by-team draft reviews because, you know, that’s kind of what we live for.

Make sure you’re ready for your dynasty league rookie draft by staying up on all these articles, checking out our rookie draft guide, rookie rankings, rookie draft cheat sheet and mock draft rooms. There are simply no better resources out there for dynasty fantasy football enthusiasts.

Name: Paxton Lynch
Position: Quarterback
Pro Team: Denver Broncos
College Team: Memphis Tigers
Draft Status: Round One, No. 26 overall

Video Highlights

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Height: 6’7’’
Weight: 244 Pounds
Hands: 10 ¼’’
Arm Length: 34 ¼’’
Bench Press (225 LBS): DNP
40-Yard-Dash: 4.86 Seconds
3-Cone-Drill: 7.14 Seconds
20-Yard-Shuttle: DNP
Vertical Jump: 36 Inches
Broad Jump: 118 Inches

Strengths

Lynch is tall and he can see over the top of the offensive line very easily while reading the defense. He does a very good job at using his athleticism to extend the play. His ability to maneuver in the pocket and his quick release will help him avoid taking a lot of sacks. He was sacked just 15 times on 443 drop backs last season. Arm strength is a must for a young quarterback and Lynch’s arm is strong enough to connect with his receivers on all sectors of the field.

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Weaknesses

The mental side of the game is where he struggles, quickly going through his reads and anticipating where his receivers are going are his two major issues. Moving the defenders around with his eyes is something he is going to need to learn quickly or his transition to the NFL is going to be rather bumpy. The pre-snap reads he was required to make in college was very elementary compared to what’s going to be expected of him in the NFL. He also has problems with ball placement by overthrowing or placing the ball where the receiver can’t catch it in stride. His touch on the ball can be inconsistent at times as he tends to throw the ball too hard at receivers running shorter routes and he has a habit of underthrowing receivers who are running intermediate to deep routes.

Opportunities

Not many rookie quarterbacks get drafted to a team stocked with weapons. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are going to make his transition a lot easier than what it would be if he was drafted to a team without any solid receivers, though. Denver also is investing in the running game by resigning CJ Anderson and drafting Devontae Booker in the fourth round of this year’s draft. Being able to run the ball will help divert some of the pressure off Lynch and allow his development to become more gradual. Compared to all of the teams that could have drafted him, Denver seems to be the best fit. Most teams that are in need of a quarterback are rebuilding and don’t have the players in place to help elevate his game.

Denver has one of the top defenses in the league, so during the early years of his career while he’s developing they can focus on running the ball and playing strong defense – this will help Lynch ease into running the offense without putting too much on his shoulders, allowing him to slowing progress during his development.

Threats

Mark Sanchez is the only experienced quarterback on the depth chart that could potentially delay Lynch’s opportunity of starting for the Broncos in 2016. The odds are highly unlikely that Sanchez would be holding the starting job for anything long-term and it’s going to be Lynch’s job once he has proved he has developed enough to earn the trust of the coaching staff.

The Broncos spent a first round pick to acquire Lynch and they are going to give him every opportunity to succeed. However, John Elway, the team’s general manager, is used to winning and may not have to patience to wait on Lynch to develop. I wouldn’t put it past Elway to bring in competition if Lynch isn’t showing much progress with in a couple years.

Short-Term Expectations

Expect him to compete for the starting quarterback job right out of the gate and don’t be surprised if he wins the job either in training camp or in the middle of the season. Like most young quarterbacks, his career is going to start off a little rocky due to his inexperience but don’t let that allow you to jump ship. Be patient, as he’s still very raw as a prospect and it may take him an extra year or two to develop.

Long-Term Expectations

There’s tons of upside with Lynch and if he works hard and lives up to his potential then he could end up being one of the top quarterbacks in the league. On the contrary, like many quarterbacks drafted in the back half of the first round, he could become a colossal bust. Quarterback is the hardest position in all of sports and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he ended up becoming a journeyman backup. He was drafted into a great situation with a lot of talent around him and he has the physical tools to get the job done. His development is key to whether he becomes a perennial starter in the league or just another backup quarterback who couldn’t live up to their potential.

NFL Comparison

Comparisons are hard to make with quarterbacks because there are a lot of variables that come into play when trying to predict a player’s future production. If you take size, athleticism, footwork and arm strength into account, Ben Roethlisberger and Blake Bortles would be obvious comparisons to Lynch. All three of the quarterbacks came from smaller schools, Bortles played at Central Florida and Roethlisberger went to school at Miami of Ohio. Ironically, since he is now a Bronco, Lynch draws some similar characteristics to Brock Osweiler as both players have a strong arm and a similar build, but Lynch’s athleticism tends to be a major difference between the two players.

Projected Range for Rookie Drafts

According to DLF’s ADP, Lynch is being selected around the early third round in rookie drafts – this isn’t a bad price for Lynch since there’s a massive talent drop off once you hit the beginning of the second round. 2QB leagues are a different story – expect him to get drafted anywhere in the middle of the first round to the early second. In most leagues he’s the second quarterback off the board after Jared Goff and he’s ranked second in DLF’s 2016 rookie quarterback rankings. Lynch has plenty of upside and could prove to become a tremendous value in the third round of rookie drafts if he can reach his potential.

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bruce matson