Weekly Twitter Observations
In this series of Twitter Observations, we will focus on some of the interesting tweets you may have missed. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis. Let’s review some of the best tweets I’ve captured this week.
Rich Cimini, ESPN NFL Nation reporter covering the New York Jets
AM Jets notes: The real Fitz offer … Tensions building … Hungry Dee .. Cap update. #nyj https://t.co/W6yhEhxBnL
— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) May 29, 2016
First thought on the Ryan Fitzpatrick stalemate is – why? Why in the world would the Jets balk at giving Fitzpatrick better than an offer of the lowest paying starter in the NFL at $12M for the first year? And second, why are they offering him a high end back up money for year two and year three. Let’s look at how well he fared in 2015 – in yards, he was QB15 and in touchdowns QB10. This is decent production for what would be the near the lowest paid starter. As we know in fantasy football, that’s not the whole picture, there is always more data to be gleaned. As we look at some quality measures, Fitzpatrick threw the fifth most interceptions and was 29th in completion percentage, and that even drops to 30th when using completion percentage accounting for drops. I’m starting to think that the Jets are looking at these numbers, not the production numbers. The production numbers are likely viewed as byproducts of the offense. Offensive coordinator Chan Gailey, wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker can do a lot to help a bad quarterback. I do believe that the stalemate is viewed so poorly by the general public because seemingly the Jets have no “plan B”. They decided not to pursue Hoyer, rather drafted Christian Hackenberg to compete with Geno Smith. So while I don’t necessarily blame the Jets for their offer based on the interceptions and completion percentage, I do blame them for being in this situation into June and not having dictated the situation sooner. Clearly Fitzpatrick is not in the Jets’ future, as portrayed by offering the backup level salary in year two and year three.
TJ Hernandez, Fantasy football and DFS enthusiast | @4for4football Associate Editor
WR PPR FP/Target consistency, last three seasons (min 65 targets)
Lower CV = more consistent pic.twitter.com/cgNiQe2Wml
— TJ Hernandez (@TJHernandez) May 26, 2016
The data shared here by TJ Hernandez is incredible for us dynasty players. We strive this time of year to evaluate which wide receivers will produce in the upcoming season. While past success does not guarantee future success, it is important for us to be cognizant of the players that are consistently producing on a per target basis. Usage and injuries can impact usage; however I reasonably would like to believe that points per target should be a close approximation of how efficient that player is. It should be noted that this data is merely highlighting consistency, not necessarily quality. For example, a player can be consistently bad, yet score a low (good) score. With so many variables, we look for consistencies in any form we can and then apply those as best we can.
Raymond Summerlin, Fantasy Football writer for @Rotoworld_FB.
Doug Baldwin saw just four more red zone targets in 2015 than 2014 but 1 fewer target inside 10. RZ conversion % jumped from 23 to 41.
— Raymond Summerlin (@RMSummerlin) May 27, 2016
Over past seasons, touchdowns from outside the redzone are very difficult to see repeat year after year. This indicates that Doug Baldwin is a high risk candidate for touchdown regression in 2016. In 2015, Baldwin’s 14 touchdown season propelled him into a WR11 finish. Also concerning, is Baldwin’s efficiency of scoring fantasy points drastically increased beyond a sustainable rate. In 2014, his fantasy point per target was 1.9 and jumped to 2.7, which was the highest in the NFL among WRs with minimum of 50 targets. Baldwin was not only producing many points from touchdowns, but also yards. Looking at his year over year percentage changes for 2015 vs 2014, we see he only had a 10% jump in targets, but had an 18% jump in receptions, 30% jump in yards, and the ridiculous jump in touchdowns, 367% going from three to 14. The jump in receptions is promising that even without the extreme touchdown jump; he likely still would have shown solid progression. In 2013, Baldwin was the WR40, in 2014 WR43, and WR11 in 2015. Clearly we should be skeptical. However, the context missing here is the price.
Baldwin in May DLF mock data was going as the WR41. Wait, what? Baldwin’s ADP is his floor? This makes no sense to me. At age 27, Baldwin could reasonably see three to six more viable seasons. While he very well won’t be as high as WR11 again, it sets a range of outcomes where a reasonable top 36 finish is obtainable. By comparison, Michael Floyd is going as the WR29 at age 26, with no signs of making the jump towards being a sustainable top WR36 with a WR37 finish in 2015 and WR44 in 2014. So despite an expected regression from Baldwin, I still would view him as a ‘buy’, and not a player to avoid or sell. I have Floyd and Baldwin ranked fairly closely in my rankings, but based on ADP, I’d prefer Baldwin.
Salvatore Stefanile @TwoQBs Co-founder, TwoQBs.com
Alex Smith was a top-20 fantasy QB in 81.3% of his games last year; his 2QB ADP was QB27. https://t.co/frurQDW8pQ pic.twitter.com/stNEX3EWAu
— Salvatore Stefanile (@2QBFFB) May 27, 2016
So much to love about this tweet. First, Alex Smith as a top 20 quarterback in 81.3% of his games is music to my ears for a superflex streamer like myself. The floor that Smith is providing is exactly what I look for in streaming my second QB in my superflex leagues, especially at the price of a high end QB3 at QB27. Secondly, I love this tweet, because it opened my eyes to a fantastic feature on twoqbs.com on a particular player’s profile page. The data provided is extremely useful to quickly view how well a quarterback has produced as a top 10, or top 20 QB.
Ryan McDowell, DLF Writer
Thanks to @ScottFish24, the DLF ADP data now includes a “change” column. Check out the risers & fallers! https://t.co/F6CU8DBXq2
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) May 25, 2016
This week DLF’s own Scott Fish updated the DLF ADP data page to now include a change column along with the standard deviation column added previously. The change column shown below uses a red down arrow or green arrow to easily show a player’s change in ADP.
With so much information on Twitter, there are so many great minds contributing great discussion, articles, and bits of data, truly a hot bed of fantasy goodness. I will be doing my best to capture the highlights of the week and mining it out in one place for you.
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