2016 Wide Receiver Combine Analysis – Part Four
Over the last month I’ve put together my annual look at the upside of this year’s wide receiver class in order to help evaluate potential busts as well as those who could be late draft lottery tickets if everything goes their way. If you haven’t been keeping track of the series, please take some time to go back and check out part one where I detail the method, the statistics, and the rationale behind it. Without it, you’re going to be pretty lost on what the numbers mean.
As I was going through virtually every receiver in the draft class who participated in the combine, I was skipping over the top receivers in the draft class. This was because each and every one of them deserved a little bit more discussion than I could give them with all of the other players. Now it is time to get back to each of the top receivers. They are in order of their score by the metric, which loosely translates into their fantasy ceiling in the NFL. The number in parenthesis is their score with height removed.
Josh Doctson, WR WAS: 2.52 (2.91)
My Positional Ranking: Second, just barely behind first.
The debate has been and will continue to be which receiver in this draft class deserves to be the top one and likely the second player drafted in your fantasy drafts. There are three different options, but the metric clearly favors Doctson. There are some concerns about his game, and there isn’t as clear of a path to a starting role as the other two in the discussion, but I believe he has a ton of potential. The metric seems to agree with me.
Doctson’s score was docked a fair amount because of his lean frame, but his impressive leaping ability combined with his short area burst and acceleration made him the top receiver in this group. This meshes with what we saw in college from him. He has the physical tools you want and need from a top receiver. He isn’t the biggest, but that is something he can easily change with an NFL weight lifting program. While his routes are better than a lot of people coming out of college, he still needs to refine them a fair amount if he is going to become a true difference maker in the NFL. Both of those issues are things which can be worked on and can be taught. He has everything else you want.
The opportunity for Doctson isn’t quite as good as some of the others. He joins a team where the quarterback situation isn’t completely solidified. Yes, Kirk Cousins will be the starter this year, but his future is dependent on how he does. Not only that, but both Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson are still on the team. If that scares you though, don’t let it. I don’t ever plan on rookies being key starters for my fantasy teams. Doctson might see limited playing time this year, unless there is an injury, but Garcon and Jackson will both be gone in 2017. Garcon is a free agent and Jackson’s contract will be voided out. This should leave Doctson as the clear number one in Washington, and he definitely has the upside to be a top 10 receiver in fantasy leagues.
Michael Thomas, WR NO: 1.16 (0.91)
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My Positional Ranking: Third, fair gap between him and second but a very small gap between him and fourth
Like most people, there always seems to be one receiver I like a little bit more than everyone else. This year that receiver is Thomas. I have him as my third rated receiver, which I think is going to be extremely rare. It is a combination of not only being a little more excited about Thomas, but also being a bit down on Corey Coleman when compared to most other people.
When I look at Thomas, I see a player who can turn into the prototypical top receiver on an NFL team. He has the height, the hands, and the physical ability. His performance at the combine was a little disappointing when it comes to his top end speed, but short area burst and quickness are going to be more important for someone playing his role anyway. He definitely seems to have those abilities. He does struggle a little bit with balls outside of his frame, which might be partially due to relatively short arms. Fortunately for Thomas, he is going to be catching passes from one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the history of the game.
I don’t expect Thomas to be posting top 10 receiver numbers on a regular basis, but that is only because Drew Brees spreads the ball around so much. Thomas definitely has the ability to push for numbers close to that level. He’ll need to work on his route running, like almost every other rookie receiver, as well as some of other the finer points of the positions, but if there is anyone I trust to mold a receiver it is Brees. In a few years, I think we will be looking back on Thomas as being one of the better receivers in this draft class.
Laquon Treadwell, WR MIN: -0.73 (-1.60)
My Positional Ranking: First by a very slim margin.
When the whole draft process started months and months ago, Treadwell was easily my top ranked receiver, and it wasn’t even close. As the college season wrapped up and the process has progressed, the gap between him and Doctson has continually shrunk. It is now to the point where they are almost tied. In my eyes, it comes down to a Sammy Watkins/Mike Evans kind of situation. Treadwell is the more pro-ready receiver with fewer question marks, but Doctson has more physical ability and a higher ceiling. It all depends on what your team needs.
A lot of this draft process has been filled will people blasting Treadwell for his speed. Much was made of him not participating in the 40 yard dash at the combine. I said all along if he can run under a 4.6 second time in the 40 yard dash, I’m not going to dock him. Outside of your deep threat receivers, most of them don’t run in a straight line long enough to make that top end speed a major issue. Players like Larry Fitzgerald have excelled without it. However, once you start getting slower than that mark, it does start to cause some issues. Unfortunately, Treadwell was below that mark, which made him slide down to his current level of being in a virtual tie with Doctson in my rankings.
In college, his game was all about winning at the point of the catch with great hands, superb body positioning, and physical strength. There were many, many times where he would just knock defenders over or carry them 5-10 yards on his back. That is going to become a little more difficult in the NFL, but I still expect him to win at the point of the catch. This is a very good thing because I think he is going to struggle getting open.
As for the situation, I actually really like it. He will be an unquestioned starter from day one. Plus, Teddy Bridgewater is a short to intermediate passer, which plays right into what Treadwell can do. There will be a lot of quick passes, short slant routes, and other routes of that nature. Routes where Treadwell’s lack of long speed won’t have any impact on his success. I don’t think he will ever be a great receiver, but I think he’s going to be very good for a long time.
Leonte Carroo, WR MIA: -1.79 (-0.11)
My Positional Ranking: Seventh, very close to six and eight.
Carroo is the receiver in this draft class I’ve struggled with the most when it comes to my rankings. Throughout the process I’ve had him as high as fifth and as low as ninth. I currently have him as seventh, but it wouldn’t take very much to make me move him to six or to eight. There are a lot of things I like about Carroo, but there are also a lot of red flags for me.
On the good side of the ledger, he is very thickly built with strong, reliable hands. He seldom loses at the point of the catch, which I love in my receivers. He is a high motor guy who is willing to do whatever he needs to do in order to make his team better. His production during college was also great, which is another big plus for me.
So what don’t I like about him? He isn’t overly gifted from a physical standpoint. He was slightly below the average of the baseline group in all of the drills. When you combine that with slightly below average height, he might struggle to turn into an exceptional receiver. The situation also isn’t something I love. He goes to a team with a quarterback I don’t love and which just drafted a receiver in the first round last year. They also have Jarvis Landry who may or may not be there for the long haul, but is still in the mix currently. I think Carroo will struggle for playing time in the short term and might struggle to be more than the third option long term as well. We could be talking WR3 type production at best if Landry sticks around. I didn’t even get into the questionable decision making off the field. He is risky, which is why he is in the late first round for me.
Sterling Shepard, WR NYG: -2.52 (0.85)
My Positional Ranking: Fifth, but pretty close to fourth. Large gap between him and sixth.
It seems that Shepard is a bit of an under the radar prospect this year. He wasn’t getting nearly as much attention pre-draft as most of the other players on this list, and post draft a lot of the conversation seems to be about the situation he is walking in to in New York. Don’t let this fool you though. Sheapard is a talented receiver and should definitely be gone in the top six or seven picks of every rookie draft this year.
When you look at the physical traits, one of the first things people always point out is his height, or lack of it. Yes, he’s only 5’10”, but he’s well built for that height. He also possesses great leaping ability, which can help to make up for the lack of height a little bit. Where he really excels are in the qualitative areas. He has exceptional hands, catching almost everything within his frame with natural ease. He is also one of if not the best route runners in this draft class, which will definitely pay dividends as he transitions to the NFL.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Shepard lead all rookie receivers in production as a rookie. He’ll never see double coverage or even safety help over the top with Odell Beckham Jr on the other side. His proficiency with route running will help him get on the field right away as well. He might struggle a little bit with more physical defenders in the NFL, but I think he’ll find a way to minimize their impact against him. The only concern I have for Shepard is his ceiling. He is pretty close to maxed out when it comes to his physical frame and his ability to run routes. There aren’t nearly as many things he can improve upon as there are for most rookies. He’ll never be the top target for the Giants, and I don’t think he has the ability to be one either. He’s likely to max out as a top 25 receiver, but not top 10.
Corey Coleman, WR CLE: -2.60 (0.45)
My Positional Ranking: Fourth, very close to third.
Having Coleman as my fourth ranked receiver is going to raise some eyebrows. If you read above, it is a combination of being a little bit lower on Coleman than most and quite a bit higher on Thomas. I’ve been saying since late Fall that Coleman has a ton of talent; however, I’m worried about how it will transition to the NFL. He doesn’t fit into the traditional receiver roles, so he’s going to need coaches who are willing to think a bit outside the box to help him reach his potential. He could be great, but I think he has more challenges to overcome than the majority of the other receivers.
From a physical talent perspective, outside of physical size, Coleman has everything you want. His score would have been quite a bit higher had he been healthy enough to compete at the combine. He’s lightning fast, has exceptional acceleration, can jump out of his cleats, and change directions quick enough to break the ankles of any defenders attempting to cover him or tackle him. He’s a phenomenal athlete. There is no questioning that.
The issues all arise when it comes to actually playing the wide receiver position. Saying he isn’t a natural pass catcher is about as big of an understatement as saying twinkies are just a little bit unhealthy. Coleman had one of if not the highest drop rate of the drafted receivers at nearly 12 percent of on target passes. Passes outside of his frame are almost certainly misses. His route running is also a major work in progress. He wasn’t really asked to run routes at Baylor as it was much more of a backyard football type of offense. As a result, his route tree is very limited.
The issue for Coleman is going to be getting the ball into his hands. It is a new regime in Cleveland, so we don’t really know what they are capable of, but Hue Jackson has always been a believer in running the football. This could limit the number of passing opportunities, especially since the quarterback situation is in a state of flux. The good news about the situation is that Coleman will be the unquestioned top playmaker on the team. He could be involved in a lot of sweeps, screens, and other players to manufacture touches for him. I’m just not sure I trust the Browns to create an offense which can help Coleman reach his fullest potential, because the guy definitely has the athletic ability very few possess.
Tyler Boyd, WR CIN: -5.81 (-5.09)
My Positional Ranking: Eighth, but pretty close to seventh. Very large gap to the ninth best.
I’ve been a little bit lower on Boyd than most over the last few months, and he seems to keep dropping a bit in my mind. I always questioned his upside in the NFL, and his low score on the metric just reinforces that belief. Athletically, he’s too lean, too slow, and lacks the explosiveness to make up for it. The one thing he does do well is change directions, which could help him when it comes to refining his routes, but that’s not very much to hang your hat on.
What he does have going for him are a great pair of hands. He catches pretty much everything thrown in his general direction. He doesn’t have the best vertical for an NFL receiver, but when he is up in the air he shows superior body control and field awareness. He’ll be able to make a lot of sideline catches if Andy Dalton can place the ball there. He is also a very driven competitor who will do whatever his team asks of him in order to help them win. This was shown time and time again at Pitt when he was asked to do pretty much everything from return kicks to playing running back in addition to catching the lion’s share of passes.
My concerns all center around his upside. He doesn’t have the talent nor the athletic ability to be anything more than a complementary receiver at the NFL level. He’ll be a great third option for the Bengals, behind AJ Green and Tyler Eifert, but how much is Dalton’s third option going to be worth? I think Boyd is the kind of player who will be much more valuable to his NFL team than he will to your fantasy team. He’ll be a great pro, but I don’t know if he’ll help win many fantasy championships as a WR3 or lower.
Will Fuller, WR HOU: -6.46 (-4.26)
My Positional Ranking: Sixth by a narrow margin.
There always seems to be at least one receiver like Fuller in every draft class. A player who is a little bit on the small side with tons of speed and slightly questionable hands. We’ve seen it years ago with players like Ted Ginn Jr and Mike Wallace, and more recently with players like Devin Smith. NFL teams always seem interested because if these guys pan out, they can change the look of their offense. It spreads defenses out to open up the underneath passing and the running lanes. Plus, it only takes one good throw to completely change the complexion of any game.
When it comes to Fuller, his lean build, miniature hands, and short arms account for almost all of his negative score in the metric. He was pretty solid everywhere else except for his vertical leap. But let’s face it, when you’re running a forty yard dash in 4.3 seconds, are you really going to stop running and jump straight up into the air? His speed is his main attribute. It is what made him a first round pick in the first place. One leg up he has on a lot of the other “deep threats” is he has shown the ability to run some other routes. He isn’t great at them yet, but he definitely has the ability to turn into more of a complete receiver.
The fit with Houston is great. He’ll never be a number one receiver, but he won’t need to be with DeAndre Hopkins in town. Fuller can take the lid off of defenses and take advantage of the massive arm Brock Osweiler brings to town. If Fuller can get open, Osweiler can hit him. I think the upside for Fuller is what we saw out of players like Wallace and Torrey Smith when they had quarterbacks who could actually throw the deep ball. It will be inconsistent for fantasy owners, but when he hits it will be big.
Here are my current rankings for this group of receivers. There are pretty large gaps between the tiers and very little if any difference within them for me right now.
Tier 1
Laquon Treadwell
Josh Doctson
Tier 2
Michael Thomas
Corey Coleman
Sterling Shepard
Tier 3
Will Fuller
Leonte Carroo
Tyler Boyd
That’s it for this series for this year. I’ll be back next year to do it again! Good luck with your drafting and trading.
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