Rookie SWOT: Jonathan Williams

Editor’s Note: As our coverage of the 2016 NFL Draft and its impact on fantasy football continues, we bring you our 2016 Rookie SWOT series. These articles will feature video highlights, combine reviews, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats, short-term expectations, long-term expectations and rookie draft advice for over 30 of the best dynasty league prospects from this year’s draft. We’ll follow that up with team-by-team draft reviews because, you know, that’s kind of what we live for.

Make sure you’re ready for your dynasty league rookie draft by staying up on all these articles, checking out our rookie draft guide, rookie rankings, rookie draft cheat sheet and mock draft rooms. There are simply no better resources out there for dynasty fantasy football enthusiasts.

Name: Jonathan Williams

Born: February 2, 1994 (age 22)
Position: Running Back
Pro Team: Buffalo Bills
College Team: Arkansas
Draft Status: Fifth round, 156th overall

Combine Review

• Height: 5′ 11″
• Weight: 220
• Arm Length: 31⅝”
• Hand Size: 10″
• 40 Yard Dash: 4.59
• Bench Press: 16
• 3 Cone Drill: 6.97
• 20 Yard Shuttle: 4.29
• Agility Score: 11.26

Video Clip

Strengths

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• Good size, suited for the NFL.
• Runs with power and agility, quality footwork to sidestep defenders.
• Was used in multiple formations at Arkansas (shows versatility in usage)
• Vision and has patience with his blockers, doesn’t try to create his own play.
• Runs through holes with good low bad level, squares up defenders on contact.

Weaknesses

• Foot injury sidelined him all of 2015.
• Functional speed, but will struggle to outrun edge defenders.
• Limited usage in passing game as a receiver; 26 receptions over 3 seasons (2012-2014)
• Presumably buried in depth chart behind LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams.

Opportunities

Jonathan Williams joins a Buffalo Bills team that led the NFL in rushing yards in 2015, with 2,432. The Bills were second in the NFL in rushing attempts with 509, only one of three teams with over 500 rushing attempts. McCoy averaged 16 rush attempts per game, with Karlos Williams averaging 8.5 and Tyrod Taylor averaging about six rush attempts per game. The volume for rushing attempts is about as good of a situation you can find, along with Carolina and Seattle. Without an injury to either LeSean McCoy or Karlos Williams, the opportunity doesn’t look great on paper. However, neither of those backs played more than 12 games last season. So while I don’t see Jonathan Williams having a clear opportunity in 2016, he may have a few useful games. The opportunity for Jonathan Williams would be beating out Karlos Williams for the primary backup role, and future replacement as the workhorse back in Buffalo.

Threats

Depth chart is clearly Jonathan William’s biggest threat. Karlos Williams has a solid year under his belt, faster and similar size as Jonathan Williams and will have a hard enough time beating him out for playing time. LeSean McCoy securely has the majority of the workload carved out. McCoy has been often labeled as someone who is oft-injured; however McCoy has only missed 9% of his games over his seven seasons, playing in 102 of the 112 games. I wouldn’t be banking on McCoy missing time in 2016.

Short-term Expectations

For 2016, my short term expectations would be quite tempered to say the least. I expect Jonathan Williams to capture the role that Mike Gillislee and Anthony Dixon filled in 2015. Combined, these two backs had 68 carries for 311 yards with four rushing touchdowns and only 12 receptions for 73 yards. These aren’t very good numbers, and were likely inflated from games that either LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams missed and I’d expect they don’t miss as much time as they did in 2015.

Long-term Expectations

McCoy will be entering 2016 at the age of 28, and with 1,664 rushing attempts over his seven seasons. While I expect McCoy to maintain production in the short term, I don’t see McCoy producing into his 30’s as his current contract will take him through the 2019 season, at the age of 31. Considering McCoy’s contract Buffalo would not see significant savings until 2018. The bottom line is that as of today, there isn’t a clear path over the next two seasons where Jonathan Williams would be in-line to even split carries with Karlos Williams, barring injuries.

NFL Comparisons

In terms of the five metrics captured for Williams, mockdraftable.com has Todd Gurley as a 96% match as a comparable. His height, weight, arm length, hands, and bench press are very similar to Gurley. However, I wouldn’t necessarily compare them as runners, or having similar speed. I see T.J. Yeldon as a closer comparable for Williams, with similar size, speed, and production.

Projected Range for a Rookie Draft

DLF’s rookie ADP has Williams going as the 24th rookie, and the end of the second round. In a number of my rookie drafts I have been able to get him anywhere between late second and early third. I believe this is a good price to pay for Williams as a running back that has seen his stock fall because of missing his 2015 season, prior to entering the draft. If not for the injury, Williams may have been in the top 15 for this rookie class.

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