Ezekiel Elliott: The Situation
The Background
Fantasy owners have been dreaming about their favorite running back going to the Dallas Cowboys since DeMarco Murray left to play for Philadelphia in 2015. Darren McFadden signed with the Cowboys, but most had already given up on him. Most of the hype went to Joseph Randle, due to his 6.7 yards per attempt in 2014. But when the Cowboys signed Lache Seastrunk, his truthers got hope again for a resurgence. It didn’t happen and he was released before the season started. The Christine Michael truthers came out in full force when Dallas traded for him in early September. He’s a great athlete and now gets to play in Dallas! What could go wrong? He was released from the team during the season after only 15 carries. Randle opened the season as the starter and was injured in week six. He had many legal issues forcing Dallas to release him during the season, leaving McFadden as the last man standing. He never looked back, running for 976 yards over the next 11 games. If we calculated out his pace over 16 games, McFadden would have finished with 1,419 yards on 301 rushing attempts.
Once the season ended, the discussions continued – “who would be the Cowboys running back in 2016?” Lamar Miller, CJ Anderson, Alfred Morris, Doug Martin, Matt Jones, and Chris Ivory were all set to become unrestricted free agents. Rumors were in full swing about the interest level Dallas had of each player. It ended when Morris signed with division rival Dallas. Which meant the conversation switched to: “who will start?” “What will the split be?” However, when the Cowboys drafted Ezekiel Elliott with the fourth overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, his fantasy football value skyrocketed. Most agreed about his talent and saw success at the NFL level. However, all of the stars (this pun is for you Dallas) aligned when he landed in the best running situation in football.
I started with the background from the last 16 months to highlight one thing: HYPE. It surrounded any running back who could land in Dallas, and all of it links back to the situation – which means the great offensive line. But it had me wondering, “how long will it remain a great situation?” “How long can they keep it together?” Like most things I wonder about, I put in the time to research them.
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Left Tackle
Tyron Smith is one of the best left tackles in football at the age of 25 years old. The Cowboys weren’t going to let him leave, so they signed him to an extension, which will keep him in Dallas until the 2018 season. After which his 5.6 million in guaranteed money would make it possible to become a cap casualty if performance or health became a concern.
Left Guard
The Cowboys were huge beneficiaries of the La’el Collins incident prior to the 2015 NFL Draft. It caused Collins to not be drafted at the beginning of the draft. Then his agent was contacting teams to let them know to not draft him. They were threatening he would sit out the 2015 season and enter the 2016 NFL Draft. It worked, as Collins went undrafted and was able to choose where he would sign. Collins signed with the Cowboys, which almost seemed unfair given the strength of their offensive line already, and started 11 games his rookie season. He is 22 years old and will become a restricted free agent after the 2017 season. Collins was the worst starter on the line last season, but he was a rookie.
Center
One of the best at his craft, Travis Frederick is only 25 years old and will become an unrestricted free agent after the 2017 season. The Cowboys already picked up the team option on Frederick, paying him 8.8 million dollars in 2017.
Right Guard
Zack Martin has made the pro bowl every season he’s been in the NFL and still is only 25 years old. He starts at right guard and will become an unrestricted free agent after the 2017 season. Dallas has a team option for the 2018 season, which I fully expect them to pick up.
Right Tackle
The ‘old guy’ on the line is the right tackle, Doug Free, who is 32 years old and will become an unrestricted free agent after the 2017 season. Depending on his performance in 2016, Free could be a cap casualty at any moment. He only has three million left in guaranteed money and carries a cap hit of 5.5 and 6.5 the next two seasons.
Backup Offensive Line
You can see the value the Cowboys place on their offensive line due to the assets they use to maintain it. Collins replaced former starting left guard Ronald Leary early in the 2015 season. However, Dallas placed a second round tender on Leary because he was a restricted free agent this off-season and will pay him 2.5 million in 2016 to be a backup. He most likely will walk next off-season. They also spent a third round pick on OT Chaz Green in the 2015 NFL Draft. He’ll provide good depth and becomes an unrestricted free agent after the 2018 season.
Other Contracts
-Quarterback Tony Romo signed a massive contract and will be with the Cowboys until after the 2017 season. It gets tricky because he carries a 25 million dollar cap hit for the 2018 season with only 8.9 guaranteed. His 2019 cap hit is 23.7 million dollars. When we combine the offensive line becoming free agents and Romo carrying a huge cap number, it spells trouble. Dallas will have some big decisions to make.
–Jason Witten has had a great career in Dallas, but this looks to be his last season there. He carries a base salary of 8.6 million in 2016 with 4.2 guaranteed. However, he only has 2.1 guaranteed for 2017 and will have a cap hit of 9.5 million. There is almost a zero percent chance Dallas brings him back for that much money at the age of 35.
-The Cowboys signed Dez Bryant to a massive contract last off-season, which will keep him in Dallas until the 2017 season. He carries 16.5 million dollar cap hit for both the 2018 and 2019 seasons, but has only 8 million left in guaranteed money. He most likely will remain in Dallas through the 2018 season.
Coaches
Head Coach Jason Garrett isn’t going anywhere. He was signed to a five year contract for 30 million dollars following the 2014 season. Offensive coordinator Scott Linehan is under contract for the next two seasons.
Tying it together chronologically
2016 and 2017: The Dallas offensive line will likely stick together for at least two more seasons.
2018 Off-season: Many things could change after the 2017 season. Frederick is a stud, but will be a free agent and command a large amount of money. Free also becomes a free agent, but he will be 34 years old at that point. Look for competition at right tackle soon, perhaps from backup Chaz Green to unseat the older Free. Collins will be a restricted free agent and Martin will have a team option. I expect both to be brought back. However, Romo could be released due to his huge cap number and Linehan’s contract is expiring as well. If Dallas gets rid of Romo, who’s keeping defenses honest, how will this affect Elliott? Offensive coordinator Scott Linehan will also have his contract expiring after the 2017 season.
2019 Off-season: Dallas better bust out that checkbook after the 2018 season. Every starter on the offensive line will either have a contract expiring or have a friendly enough contract to be released at this point. Do I expect all of them to not be back for the 2019 season? Not at all. However, we never know what will happen with contract demands and injuries. Martin and Collins will become free agents after the season. Martin deserves to be the top paid interior offensive lineman in the NFL. Collins still needs to develop, but he has a high level of talent. If he reaches it, i’m sure his price tag will be substantial as well. Current backup tackle Green, who could be the starter at right tackle, becomes a free agent after the season. Stud left tackle Tyron Smith’s contract makes it possible for him to be released at this point for cap relief. However, there should be no reason to. The only possibility for his release would be due to injury. Therefore, he will likely be with Dallas through 2021.
The big IF: If Dallas decides to pay Frederick, Martin, Collins, and keep Smith (extremely likely) they will all be 29 years old or younger by the time the 2019 comes around. Which would allow for Elliott’s good situation to continue well into his middle 20’s and help his overall production and value. Dallas still needs to make some moves at quarterback, however.
Numbers are fun…maybe?
-In the five seasons Jason Garrett has been head coach of the Cowboys, the leading rusher has averaged 235 attempts. In the last two years the average spikes up to 316 attempts, thanks in large part to Murray’s 392 attempt season in 2014. The same leading rusher averaged a surprising 42 receptions per season. To be fair, Murray was the leading rusher for four of the five seasons in Dallas and has shown to be an accomplished receiver out of the backfield.
-Offensive coordinator Scott Linehan is entering his second season calling plays in Dallas. When I look back at his five seasons calling plays in Detroit, I see more of a split among the running backs with touches. The most by any one running back in any one season is 277, which ironically is the exact average for touches in Dallas for over Garrett’s five years as head coach. Why were Linehan’s totals much lower? I would lean toward injuries, but it also could be talent. He worked with Kevin Smith, Jahvid Best, Maurice Morris, Mikel LeShoure, Joique Bell, and Reggie Bush. Linehan’s average leading rusher over his five years in Detroit had 182 carries and 42 receptions. His first season calling plays in Dallas had the leading rusher, McFadden, had 279 touches.
Conclusion
When I hear people talk about Elliott’s situation, it sounds like they’re talking like it will last forever. The good news is it appears to be safe for the next two seasons. The best pieces of the offensive line are under contract, along with the head coach, and the quarterback. But the studs on the offensive line become free agents after that in 2017 and 2018. It will then depend on the price tag of Frederick, Collins, and Martin. Romo looks like he only has a couple of seasons left in Dallas as well. The usage from Garrett and Linehan has me thinking Elliott will see plenty of work in the passing game. I think they’ll mix in McFadden and Morris more Elliott’s rookie year than many expect. But when Elliott finally gets used to the NFL game and hits his prime, many of his offensive lineman will start to become free agents.
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Nick can be found on Twitter at @_NickWhalen
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