Rookies Destined to be Underdrafted

Austan Kas Posted On May 17, 2016

Where a rookie lands can certainly have an impact on his professional career. Often times, though, I think many of us in the dynasty community, myself included, place too much emphasis on a player’s situation.

At this time a year ago, with Marshawn Lynch dominating the touches, Seattle seemed like an awful landing spot for any running back. Then Lynch got hurt, Thomas Rawls blew up and Lynch retired. Josh Gordon had his insane 1,646-yard campaign on a disastrous Cleveland offense. Mike Evans scored 12 touchdowns as a rookie despite the fact Tampa Bay only scored 28 offensive touchdowns. Then, when the Buccaneers actually had a decent offense in 2015, totaling 1,400 more yards than they did in 2014, Evans had just three scores.

It works the other way, too. Elevated by what seemed like an ideal landing spot with the Colts, Josh Robinson was the RB57 — ahead of Jeremy Langford, Darren McFadden and Theo Riddick — in our August startup mocks last summer.

All that to say: situations are overblown.

Fantasy football is unpredictable. It’s painful to admit, but if we don’t accept it, we’re kidding ourselves. We don’t know what’s going to happen. Injuries happen. Coaching changes happen. Roster shakeups happen. Devonta Freeman happens.

Opportunity is obviously key in any fantasy format — players can’t score points without snaps, targets or carries — but in dynasty, we can exercise patience while believing the cream will eventually rise to the top.

Here are some rookies whose value has been negatively affected by the teams which chose them in the draft. To varying degrees, each of these players has seen their stock take a hit over the past month as dynasty owners are a little apprehensive about their respective landing spots. However, this may create an opportunity for us to land a talented rookie at a discount.

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Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

In our April rookie drafts, Derrick Henry was our RB2 and the sixth overall pick. A month later, after being taken by the Titans, Henry has slipped down two spots to the eighth overall pick in our May rookie mocks. He’s still the RB2 among rookies, but I think his slide may continue as Kenneth Dixon and C.J. Prosise keep gaining steam.

The Titans’ selection of Henry was one of the more puzzling picks of the draft, but with Tennessee spending significant draft capital on him, it stands to reason they have big plans for him. Ostensibly, the situation — mediocre offense, DeMarco Murray in the way — isn’t great, but Murray is an NFL running back, meaning he could break down at any minute. Plus, he was bad last year in a very rushing-friendly offense.

I have reservations about Henry’s ability be a fantasy stud. Most notably, I’m worried about his lack of receiving ability and massive 2015 workload (395 carries). At the same time, this is a player who may be the greatest high school running back of all time, and he had an outstanding college career against top-notch competition. Very few players, if any, have accomplished what this dude has accomplished by the age of 23. Is he all of the sudden supposed to be bad at football?

Players his size (6-foot-3, 247 pounds) should not be capable of running a 4.54-second 40-yard dash. I believe Henry could offset his lack of pass-game work by being a goal-line monster, something for which he seems ideally suited.

Leonte Carroo, WR, Miami Dolphins

Perhaps no other rookie lost more value due to his landing spot than Leonte Carroo. Prior to the draft, Carroo was the sixth-ranked wideout in our 2016 staff rankings. In April startup mocks, he was the fourth rookie receiver taken, fifth overall rookie and the 69th overall player.

After being nabbed by the Dolphins, Carroo has slipped to the 11th overall rookie pick and WR8 in our May rookie drafts.

I’m not going to try to spin Miami into a good situation, because, well, it’s really not a very good situation. Ahead of Carroo on the depth chart are target hog Jarvis Landry and rising second-year wideout DeVante Parker. Landry is a proven monster while Parker showed enough flashes as a rookie to get the dynasty community all giddy. This says nothing of Kenny Stills, who isn’t a bad player, but Stills’ value probably took the biggest hit with the addition of Carroo.

Aside from the stacked depth chart, there is Ryan Tannehill, who I’m not convinced will ever be more than an average quarterback. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Miami, and unless Tannehill improves, common sense tells us some weapons will be going to bed hungry.

With all that said, if you liked Carroo’s talent before the draft — and plenty of us did — he is still the same player right now, and you can get him for a lot cheaper than you could’ve a month ago. If Carroo ended up with, say, the Cowboys, he’d still be a mid-first-round pick. Instead, you can get him for quite a bit cheaper.

Alex Collins, RB, Seattle

Selected in the third round of the NFL Draft, C.J. Prosise has seen his stock rise over the past few weeks amid concerns about Thomas Rawls’ (ankle) health. Prosise’s rise has cast a shadow on Alex Collins, who Seattle snatched up in the fifth round.

All the same reasons — namely Seattle’s lack of running back depth prior to the draft — Prosise is a hot commodity also apply to Collins. A one-cut, aggressive runner, Collins isn’t a substantially worse back than Prosise, at least in my eyes. Prosise is a better receiver, but Collins is a more well-rounded, consistent runner.

In our April startup mocks, most people agreed. Prosise was the fifth rookie running back off the board while Collins was the sixth. Things changed after the draft. In our May rookie drafts, Prosise is RB4, and Collins has fallen to RB10 — with Kenyan Drake, Jordan Howard and Paul Perkins among those who jumped Collins.

I think Rawls is a very good player, but Seattle taking two runnings backs in the first five rounds hints at some concern with his ankle. If Rawls gets 100 percent healthy, Seattle’s running back depth will have gone from a weakness to a strength in one off-season, but the easiest way to get quality running backs for a discount is by investing in crowded backfields.

As we know, hardly any running backs start all 16 games, and teams divvy up touches now more than ever before. With a running style perfectly suited for Seattle, one of the league’s best rushing offenses, Collins is a player who could be a huge difference maker down the line, and he’s currently coming off the board as the first pick in the third round (of 12-team drafts).

Roger Lewis, WR, New York Giants

An undrafted free agent, talent is not an issue with Roger Lewis. A former Ohio State recruit, he ended up at Bowling Green due to academic issues and being charged with two counts of rape. (He was found not guilty on one count and accepted a plea deal on the other.)

At Bowling Green, he did what a high-level Division I recruit should do — dominate. In two years with the Falcons, Lewis totaled a combined 158 catches for 2,638 yards and 23 scores. At 6-foot, 201 pounds with 32-inch arms, he looks the part, too, winning with athleticism and physicality.

The off-field issues reg-flagged him with some teams even before the combine, but then Lewis stunk it up in the drills. However, he said his poor performance was due to a hamstring issue. Lewis bounced back with much better numbers at Bowling Green’s pro day, running a 4.46 40-yard dash with a 36-inch vertical and 10-foot, 5-inch broad jump.

Like most players who go undrafted, Lewis’ dynasty stock took a hit following the draft. After going 37th overall in our April rookie mock drafts, Lewis slipped all the way down to the 51st player off the board in May, which means he’s not being drafted in 12-team leagues with three- and four-round rookie drafts.

Lewis produced at an extremely high level in college — putting up similar numbers in 2015 to Western Michigan’s Corey Davis, a devy darling — and he’s in a pretty sweet situation with the Giants. Odell Beckham is obviously the dude, and Sterling Shepard seems to have a great chance to be the second receiver. It gets ugly after those two. Victor Cruz is a question mark, at best, which makes Dwayne Harris the team’s third option. The opportunity is there for Lewis, and he is a worthwhile gamble late in drafts.

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