Rookie SWOT: Ezekiel Elliott

Name: Ezekiel Elliott
Position: Running Back
Pro team: Dallas Cowboys
College Team: THE Ohio State University Buckeyes
Draft Status: Round One, Pick #4 overall

Video Highlights

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Combine Review

Height: 6’0”
Weight: 225 pounds
Hands: 10.25”
Arm Length: 31.25”
40-Yard Dash: 4.47 seconds
20-Yard Shuttle: DNP
Vertical: 32.5”
Broad: 118”

Strengths

“Zeke” brings elite collegiate production and multiple big game appearances at a big time school to the NFL. The league will not be too big for him as he thrives on the big stage. His game is extremely well rounded and he projects as an immediate three down starter. Elliott uses his blocks downfield to set up defenders to miss and has enough long speed to take it to the house on virtually any play. At the same time, he has the elusiveness, toughness and strength to grind the tough yards between the tackles and pop off a big run. What could make him special is his ability to pass protect. The Cowboys need to keep Tony Romo healthy and Elliott looks to be as good a pass blocker as there is in the league.

Weaknesses

This is one of the rare instances where the majority of a player’s weaknesses are off the field. There are character concerns with Zeke rubbing teammates the wrong way and he has criticized coaches openly in the past. Beyond that, he has at least been linked to some drug rumors along with former teammate Joey Bosa. On the field, he only possesses good lateral agility but not the elite sort. This leads him to heavy contact more than one might like, so he could miss time if his body cannot hold up to the punishment; although, this was not an issue in college.

Opportunities

Elliott walks into an assumed three down role immediately. Despite Darren McFadden turning in one of the best performances of his career and bringing in Alfred Morris, the Cowboys spent the #4 overall pick on him. Given this investment and his skill set, any lesser role would be a shock. As if that weren’t enough, he is walking into a situation that boasts perhaps the best offensive line in the NFL. This is essentially the perfect storm. For the divisional rivals, no team performed better than 16th worst in points allowed in 2015, with two teams among the five worst in the NFL. Dallas won’t be hurting for scoring opportunities, and apart from Dez Bryant, those should rune through Zeke.

Threats

This might be the hardest part of any football analysis that I do this year. Due to the factors listed under opportunities, picking threats feels like grasping at straws. It is possible the Cowboys reward McFadden for his production last year by maintaining a role for him, forcing a RBBC in Dallas. More news may come to light regarding drugs with Elliott and given his post-draft track record, he may not have the maturity to avoid compromising situations. Still, those are all a pretty big stretch.

Short-term Expectations

Ezekiel Elliott could join the NFL’s elite at running back in reality and fantasy as soon as this year. DLF’s Dynasty RB Rankings have him debuting at #3 overall with his lowest ranking being #4. Anything less than a RB10 finish will be a disappointment, while a RB5+ finish is within reason given the talent and situation.

Long-term Expectations

Based on everything we know, Elliott projects as the unquestioned future for the Cowboys at the position. He is only 20 years old and the stars are aligning for him. Given the high initial ranking, the consensus thought is he will be a mainstay at the top of running back rankings for at least the next few years unless something unforeseen occurs. At a position with a short shelf life, you can’t ask for more than that.

Rookie Draft Advice

If you don’t have the 1.01 in your rookie draft, don’t expect to land Elliott. He is and has been the consensus 1.01 since prior to the draft, and the landing spots for him and other top prospects only widened the gap between 1.01 and 1.02. His 2016 Rookie May ADP has him ranked squarely number one overall (1.10 adjusted ADP) with the second ranked player (2.90 adjusted ADP) far behind him. Rejoice if you have the 1.01 and prepare to pay through the nose if you are trying to acquire it, as most completed trades discussed on our forum involve an already elite player.

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