Editor’s Note: As our coverage of the 2016 NFL Draft and its impact on fantasy football continues, we bring you our 2016 Rookie SWOT series. These articles will feature video highlights, combine reviews, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats, short-term expectations, long-term expectations and rookie draft advice for over 30 of the best dynasty league prospects from this year’s draft. We’ll follow that up with team-by-team draft reviews because, you know, that’s kind of what we live for.
Make sure you’re ready for your dynasty league rookie draft by staying up on all these articles, checking out our rookie draft guide, rookie rankings, rookie draft cheat sheet and mock draft rooms. There are simply no better resources out there for dynasty fantasy football enthusiasts.
Please enjoy this free preview of what to anticipate from the SWOT series moving forward.
Eight days before the 2016 NFL Draft, the Eagles and Browns pulled the trigger on a trade allowing Philadelphia to grab the new face of their franchise, and Cleveland to bring in a haul of picks for a well-planned and well-executed renewal of their roster. In my mind, the move was a positive one for both teams. The Browns clearly want to build with Hue Jackson and bring in players he can coach up ‘his way’, and the Eagles have been in desperate need of a quarterback for what feels like an eternity. I’ll explore the prospects of the highest-drafted quarterback in FCS history.
Name: Carson Wentz
Position: Quarterback
Pro Team: Philadelphia Eagles
College Team: North Dakota State University
Draft Status: Round One, Pick #2 Overall
Combine Review
- Height – 6’5″
- Weight – 237 lbs
- Hands – 10″
- Arm Length – 33 1/4″
- 40 yard dash – 4.77 seconds
- Three cone drill – 6.86 seconds
- Vertical Jump – 30.5 inch
- Broad Jump – 118.0 inch
Video Clip
Strengths
- Size and athleticism – Wentz is big and powerful, but also elusive enough to take off and gain yards on the ground. In his final two seasons at NDSU, he ran for 936 yards on on 201 carries (4.7 average) and added 12 touchdowns
- Pro-style offense – The offense at NDSU used NFL-style concepts, giving him responsibility and putting a lot on his plate. He was able to make calls at the line of scrimmage to change the protection/routes etc, which will have prepared him to do it at the next level
- High praise – AÂ number of analysts have become infatuated with him throughout the Draft process. Jon Gruden called him the most NFL-ready quarterback in the last few years, Mike Mayock likened his ceiling to that of Andrew Luck, and Greg Cosell has said he has the kind of high-level traits that could make him a top five quarterback in this league (providing he develops those traits)
Weaknesses
- Ball security – He fumbled nine times in his last two seasons, and must become a two-handed monster. His tendency to run the ball and maneuver in the pocket will be problematic at the next level if he isn’t able to secure it
- Level of competition – He won Championships, but how many NFL-level defenders did he play against? The speed of the pro game will simply be quicker than what he’s used to. Unfortunately for Wentz, there’s no way to prove he can do it at the next level until he does it at the next level. But as he once quipped, “if you can play, you can play”
- Reads and progressions –Â Something that I’ve seen flagged a few times is his tendency to lock on to his first target (a la Ryan Tannehill), which is simply not a great trait to have. Matt Miller covered this as a weakness in his scouting report, and the great Matt Waldman has mentioned it on multiple podcasts
- Big-play mentality – Another issue Waldman brought up is that Wentz often doesn’t always take the easy pass, even if it is right there on a plate. This is very worrying – a one-read quarterback must at least have conviction in that first read and hit it while it’s open, rather than holding the ball and only looking for the big play. At a lower level, he may have gotten away with this when the big plays did eventually pay off, but the great NFL signal-callers take what is given to them
Opportunities
For anyone drafted in the first round of the NFL draft, the opportunity is clear. They were chosen to be “the guy” and the team will make a clear effort to get them on the field – whether it’s immediately, or after some time waiting in the wings. Remember, this wasn’t a team that earned the second overall pick – they were in the middle of the pack (27 wins in the last three seasons), so there isn’t the expectation for Wentz to ‘turn the organization around’, more for him to simply improve the quality of quarterback play.
The offensive line is aging, but solid. The running game leaves a lot to be desired with an unstable Ryan Mathews as a starter, but the pass-catching Darren Sproles is a QB-friendly option should Wentz be forced onto the field in his first season. By the time he does see the field, however, I expect the backfield to look a lot different. On the outside, the Eagles have two potential stars in Jordan Matthews (yes, he’s untested out of the slot) and Nelson Agholor, who are young and should develop in unison with their new leader.
Threats
I can’t sit here and type, with a straight face, that Sam Bradford is a threat. Bradford has done nothing to prove the starting position should be his, and only made matters worse by threatening the team with his absence from training camp. He’s only hurting himself, and it says a lot about his insecurities that he doesn’t feel he can win a camp battle with a rookie and a career-long backup.
Chase Daniel is serviceable, knows Doug Pederson well, and will be able to hold the fort while Wentz holds the clipboard. The threat for Wentz isn’t the players in front of him, instead it’s that he must prove he’s ready to play – and I don’t think the management is in any way rushing to let him.
Short-term Expectations
Don’t expect Wentz to see the field in his rookie year. Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t be surprised – when someone invests this much capital in a player, they will be antsy to see him on the field competing (as will the fans, the media and the NFL as a whole). However, the Eagles seem to have a plan in place with two veterans ahead of him, meaning they don’t have to rush. For your dynasty team, he might take up a spot on your bench for a while.
Long-term Expectations
Trusted fantasy advisor Evan Silva makes the great point that even though Wentz is sure to be a starter at some point, it may not be until 2017 and even when he does get his shot, it will be in an offense that isn’t exactly geared towards big production from the quarterback. Wentz is the third-ranked dynasty passer in this class for Silva.
For most 1QB dynasty owners, the quarterback position is replaceable and not worth a big investment, but Wentz might be worth targeting while he is on the bench if you have an aging veteran as your QB1, as the top pick should have a solid floor as a starter when he finally takes over the job. The outstanding arm talent combined with the ability to find the end zone on the ground mean Wentz could pay owners back kindly for holding on to him.
NFL Comparisons
Greg Cosell of NFL Films argued the Andrew Luck comparison is valid, and loves the potential Wentz has shown. NFL.com uses Blake Bortles as their NFL comparison – which could be more valid than Luck, at least in terms of career trajectory. The Jaguars had a plan with Bortles, as he was expected to struggle early on (like Wentz). Although the team threw him straight in, he had almost a full year to learn the game without huge expectations, and it helped him break out in his second season. The Eagles shouldn’t (and won’t) put too much pressure on Wentz early as they expect some struggles and a learning curve.
The former NDSU Bison has been compared to every ‘big’ quarterback you can think of – Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, and more – but personally, I feel a Cam Newton comparison is more apt, at least in terms of style. Wentz is huge, and enjoys taking off and running past/over defenders while sporting a strong arm without fully developed mechanics. Newton is a one-of-a-kind specimen, but Wentz could provide a dash of his dynamism.
Projected Range for a Rookie Draft
In traditional 1QB league rookie drafts, Wentz will most likely be taken towards the end of the second round or in the third by a QB-needy team (his May ADP was 30). However, he obviously holds a lot more value in 2QB leagues, where the landscape of your first round will look drastically different. I would expect Jared Goff, Paxton Lynch and Wentz all to go in the first round, and without a clear top tier of rookies after Ezekiel Elliott and perhaps Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson and Laquon Treadwell, at least one of the passers could sneak into your top five. Wentz may actually fall the furthest as he isn’t projected to play immediately, but I would certainly invest in him towards the end of the first round.
Resources
- Jon Gruden’s QB Camp
- Chalkboard Session with Steve Mariucci
- Inside the Film Room
- Greg Cosell and Fran Duffy All-22:
As well as editing for DLF, James writes for Sky Sports and can be found on Twitter at @JS_Football
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Love the article. Very informative and gives me the up and down of this prospect.
I think Goff is the better NFL QB, in terms of wins and losses for his team. But I think Wentz is a better fantasy QB and should be drafted higher in rookie drafts. The Bortles comparison is legit because of size and gunslinger mentality (ala Big Ben) . But I think the Eagles are further away from competing in their division and will likely be playing from behind more often and have to throw all the time like Jax, and Eagles have the better receivers.
