2016 Dynasty Rookie Rankings: Consensus First Round

Ken Kelly Posted On May 4, 2016

Editor’s Note: Make sure you’re ready for your dynasty league rookie draft by checking out our rookie draft guide, rookie rankings, rookie draft cheat sheet and mock draft rooms. There are simply no better resources out there for dynasty fantasy football enthusiasts.

This year’s rookie draft talent pool pales in comparison to some of its predecessors and certainly to next year’s draft that looks to feature the likes of Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Mike Williams, OJ Howard, Corey Davis, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Brad Kaaya, Deshaun Watson and a host of other elite offensive talents. In fact, I’ve seen fewer trades for future first round picks this year than in any other I can remember as savvy owners seem to understand the value of next year’s selections. If you’re in a league with owners who aren’t looking ahead, it’s time to pounce. Remember, building a dynasty league champion is a marathon, not a sprint.

All of this doesn’t mean this year still isn’t loaded with interesting prospects, though. It’s destined to be an intriguing rookie draft class as there seems to be a clear 1.01, a solid second tier consisting of three receivers, then a host of players who could be taken anywhere from 1.05 to the late first or early second round. In fact, this year’s rookie draft in your league may go down as the one where a few second round picks turn out to be absolute gems and some late first round players become busts. The question is going to be just which players those may be. We’re here to help!

Let’s dig in with this year’s top twelve, as comprised by our initial consensus rankings:

TIER ONE

The tiers and commentary I’ll make on this post are my own comprised of my opinions. I see this year’s draft as including three clear tiers in the first round, starting with a running back who can be a staple in dynasty leagues for years to come.

1.01 = Ezekiel Elliott, RB DAL

Elliott has been the 1.01 on our board all Winter and Spring and going to Dallas to be their new bell cow just solidifies that. In fact, he’s been taken first overall in all but one of our mocks in our mock draft rooms since the draft ended. Elliott has the skill set to be a true three-down workhorse, which is becoming more and more rare in today’s NFL. While he may not be the next Adrian Peterson, he has the talent and now the situation to be amongst the league leaders in virtually every rushing category as early as next season. This is a pick you make and never look back.

TIER TWO

This tier of players consists of three receivers who have a legitimate chance to be early contributors in dynasty leagues. While Elliott seems to be the clear 1.01, these three could go at any point in rookie drafts between picks 1.02-1.04. Any selection of these players beyond 1.04 should be considered a coup for your dynasty squad.

1.02 = Laquon Treadwell, WR MIN

Treadwell has been criticized for a lack of speed and quite honestly, it’s probably a bit overblown. He’s a true playmaker who has a nose for the ball and that seems to have been forgotten. I’ve heard some say Minnesota isn’t the greatest place for him because of Teddy Bridgewater’s lack of arm strength. To me, that seems ironic since Treadwell is being devalued for his apparent inability to separate. I believe Minnesota is a great spot for him because he’ll be a prime red zone threat, great complement to Stefon Diggs and perfect possession-style receiver for Bridgewater to rely upon. The last burner the Vikings had was Mike Wallace and that didn’t exactly work out too well. Treadwell is a much different player and should find a lot more success than Wallace did in the Twin Cities.

1.03 = Corey Coleman, WR CLE

Twitter immediately blew up after Coleman was the first receiver taken in the NFL Draft because many felt Cleveland was a death blow to his dynasty value. While they may not be the most stable franchise at quarterback (that may be the biggest understatement in the ten year history of this site), people seem to have forgotten Josh Gordon found some amazing success there. Coleman has elite talent and athleticism that will serve him well. While the quarterback situation is a concern, the fact he’ll be peppered with targets and should be the top target on a team that trails often shouldn’t be ignored in dynasty circles. In short, don’t overthink this.

1.04 = Josh Doctson, WR WAS

Some believe Doctson is actually the best receiver in this entire class. In fact, it’s an easy argument to make when you watch the tape because you see a player who is explosive, polished and NFL-ready. However, he also looks like a receiver who is going to be eased as he finds himself on a depth chart consisting of DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon ahead of him at the moment. His talent is going to be very tough to leave on the bench and the Redskins may part ways with at least one of those two receivers in the near future, though. Regardless of his short-term production worries, Doctson is the clear receiver to own in Washington. Dynasty owners have a hard time not wanting immediate gratification from rookie drafts – don’t make that mistake and pass on him in favor of anyone below him on this list.

THE REST

And now it gets fun. Most drafts will become unpredictable after 1.04 since you can make a case for a large group of players deserving to be selected. They each have talent, but they also all have concerns to go along with it. In fact, this is the range where I’d be pretty comfortable trading a selection for a first round pick in next year’s draft to a team you believe is in line for a nice draft choice next season.

1.05 = Sterling Shepard, WR NYG

Shepard found himself in a great landing spot. It’s unusual to use pick 1.05 on a player whose ceiling is going to be the WR2 on his own team, but he could be a worthy gamble here. He’s already a polished route runner and has massive potential in a PPR league since the Giants go three-wide so often. He’s much more talented than his predecessor, Rueben Randle. Look for Shepard to pay immediate dividends for those who take him in rookie drafts this Summer.

1.06 = Michael Thomas, WR NO

The Saints found their long-term replacement for Marques Colston in the form of Thomas. New Orleans is a great landing spot, but Drew Brees’ career arc isn’t going to match that of Thomas’. Still, Sean Payton loves to throw the ball and Thomas should make for a nice complement to the speedy Brandin Cooks in the Big Easy. His addition should give Brees the second target they lost with the trade of Jimmy Graham and cut into Willie Snead’s workload.

1.07 = Derrick Henry, RB TEN

[inlinead]Henry’s landing spot was less than ideal in the short-term based on the presence of DeMarco Murray in Tennessee. Still, there are some questions about just how much Murray has left in the tank after being overused in Dallas and getting destroyed behind the line of scrimmage in Chip Kelly’s offense last season with the Eagles. Henry is a powerful runner with physical ability rarely (if ever) seen in a player his size. If he can refine his pass catching ability, you could catch lightning in a bottle here, even though you may not see immediate dividends. If he can’t, he’s going to be much more valuable in non-PPR leagues as a player who can put up similar numbers to what Alfred Morris did in Washington during his better years as a bruising two-down and goal line runner.

1.08 = Tyler Boyd, WR CIN

Once thought of as a candidate for a top three selection, Boyd is our eighth player off the board. He should be a great addition to the Bengals, though his upside is capped by the presence of AJ Green. Those who draft Boyd surely hope he’s a better version of Marvin Jones and they could be right as he re-wrote the record books at Pitt. Boyd could go down as a serious steal in rookie drafts.

1.09 = Kenneth Dixon, RB BAL

The fourth round pick of Baltimore, Dixon is second all-time in the touchdown department in the history of the FBS. With Buck Allen and Justin Forsett ahead of him on the depth chart, those who draft him see a clear path to early playing time. Dixon is a risk as a fourth down draft choice, but few players taken that late have the upside he has. In a draft seemingly shallow on talent, Dixon is worthy of a late first round rookie pick in dynasty leagues. He’s a dart throw, but one you can easily see hitting the bullseye.

1.10 = Leonte Carroo, WR MIA

Of all the landing spots for receivers, Carroo may have landed in the worst. With youngsters Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker ahead of him on the depth chart, Carroo will have to fight just to be in the top three players targeted for the Dolphins, making him unreliable on a week-to-week basis. This selection is all about talent over situation, though. Carroo is a very good athlete and could step in to a highly productive role if Parker’s foot injuries creep up again.

1.11 = CJ Prosise, RB SEA

The Seahawks have stated they’re fine with Thomas Rawls taking over for Marshawn Lynch, who is seemingly at home eating Skittles. The problem is actions speak louder than words and the selections of Prosise and Alex Collins show Seattle may not be supremely comfortable handing the keys to the Lynch castle directly over to Rawls. Prosise will initially be used as a third down back, but he could quickly develop into a three-down player and challenge Rawls for playing time. Just remember, Prosise is a converted receiver and has a lot to learn in terms of blocking, ball security, blitz pickup and decision making.

1.12 = Will Fuller, WR HOU

Fuller joins Prosise as back-to-back Notre Dame players to round out the first round. Some may wonder why he isn’t higher on this list and that’s fair. As I stated, the group between five and twelve is tightly bunched together. Still, there are concerns about Fuller’s hands and his ability to consistently catch the ball. In addition, he’s battling Braxton Miller, Jaelen Strong, Cecil Shorts and a number of other players for playing time opposite DeAndre Hopkins. If he hits, he could be DeSean Jackson or Mike Wallace in their prime (side note: this may be the only article ever to somehow mention Jackson and Wallace twice) and that could lead to a lot of great games to go along with a fair number of duds – that kind of inconsistency isn’t exactly what dynasty owners seek in their weekly lineups.

We’ll be back soon with round two!

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Ken Kelly

Co-Founder at DynastyLeagueFootball

Ken is a corporate trainer by day an a tireless editor of dynasty content by night. His passion for the World Champion Seattle Seahawks is second only to his love of fantasy football and the dynasty format.

Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK