Rookie Profile – Paxton Lynch, QB Memphis

One of the biggest stories over the last few weeks leading up to the draft is which quarterback will be taken first overall. After all, the Rams gave up a ton of draft capital to have the right of making that choice, and for the sake of their fans I sure hope they know which one they are taking. Whoever the Rams take, either Jared Goff or Carson Wentz, the other one will almost certainly go with the next pick.

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After those two players, the nearly universal number three quarterback on almost all rankings seems to be Paxton Lynch from Memphis. In my mind, where he ends up going in the NFL draft is going to be just as interesting as which of the other two goes first overall. With players like Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford and Geno Smith likely to still be sitting atop the depth charts of their respective teams on draft night, the need for quarterbacks might be reaching an all-time high. It likely means that a player like Lynch, who is a bit of a raw prospect, is going to get drafted higher than he otherwise should. If we are being completely honest and blind to the positions they play, Lynch’s value isn’t in the top 25 players in this NFL draft class and might not even be in the top 50. However, we all know he is going to get drafted in the first round of the NFL draft and maybe even in the top 10 picks. It is a risky play by an NFL team, but you need to get a quarterback somewhere.

For your fantasy squad, I think Lynch is going to be a bit of a lottery ticket. In your normal 12 team, start one quarterback league I’m not going to spend a roster spot on him unless I have a taxi squad or super deep rosters. It is likely going to take a while for him to adjust to the NFL and roster spots are precious. In a 2QB or super flex league you are going to be drafting him. Where depends a bit on the past history of your league, but I’m personally not looking his way until the second round. After all, he is best described as a project quarterback in my eyes. There is a lot of potential, but he is very raw. Let’s take a look at what we are working with in terms of his physical traits.

As you can see from his web, thanks to mockdraftable.com, Lynch definitely has the physical traits in spades. He is one of the biggest quarterbacks we’ve ever seen in the draft, and he is more athletic than most. He has the ability to be a dual threat quarterback while at the same time having the size of Ben Roethlisberger. When you consider most of the dual threat guys are a lot smaller, this provides a very tantalizing combo for potential NFL teams. The best part of it might be his desire to move and run in order to find a better passing opportunity. He typically isn’t running because he wants to run. The one drawback is his accuracy when on the move is a little suspect at times. He needs to work on his ability to throw accurate passes when he gets flushed from the pocket. That is something he can work on at the next level.

Let’s take a look at a few more of his traits using a different graphic, courtesy of playerprofiler.com.

It is pretty easy to see that he’s at the top of the charts when it comes to his physical traits once again. He’s a massive quarterback with a giant arm and is more athletic than most at the position. His QBR and yards per attempt are also better than most, but there is still a little bit of room for improvement in those areas. This speaks to his status as more of a prospect than a finished product. He did make significant gains each and every year in college. Virtually every metric improved each and every year in college, which has a lot of people excited. Granted, his freshman year was pretty terrible (58 percent completion rate, 5.9 yards per attempt, more interceptions than touchdowns), but that is to be expected from a freshman.

One of the biggest question marks when it comes to his production is the level of competition. Coming from Memphis out of the American Conference, he wasn’t playing top notch talent week in and week out. He simply could have been just the biggest fish in a little pond. Though he did play some top tier opponents. In fact, he destroyed Ole Miss in the middle of this past season, completing over 73 percent of his passes for 384 yards and three touchdowns against them. In his only other game against a team in the power five conferences (unless you count 0-12 Kansas…) was the bowl game against Auburn. In that game, Lynch definitely looked like a small school quarterback playing against the big boys. He completed only 43 percent of his passes for just 106 yards and an interception.

Let’s take a look at that Auburn game to help highlight some of the potential holes in Lynch’s game. Here’s the video I’m looking at. One of the first things which stand out when I watch this is Lynch seems to be constantly under pressure. He does stand tall in the pocket when he needs to, and he also does a good job of extending plays, but his accuracy when on the move definitely seems to be lacking. This is evident many times such as at the 0:50 mark. He needs to throw while moving his feet, and he is off target, forcing the receiver to the ground to make the catch. This is seen again just past the 2:00 mark. He also struggles sometimes when he needs to hit small windows. This can be seen on almost every other throw he made during this game. A great example was the interception he threw around the three-minute mark. It was a small window, but the kind of window he is going to need to hit in the NFL. In the right spot, it is a touchdown. Instead it turns into an interception in the end zone and the key pivot play in the game. There are lots of other examples where he seems to have a clean pocket and time to throw, he just misses the window.

Summary

It is pretty clear why Lynch is virtually the unanimous choice for the third quarterback in this draft. He has the physical size, mobility and arm strength which makes NFL coaches drool. At the same time, he has several question marks. His ability to perform against top tier competition is in question after having mixed results against power five teams. He also seems to have a hard time hitting some of the smaller windows he will need to hit in the NFL. This might be fixed with some work on his mechanics and throwing motion, but it is going to take some time. His steady improvement over his three years in college definitely gives hope to whatever team drafts him. He seems willing to work and able to improve.

In terms of his future, I think he will be over-drafted in the NFL based on the position he plays. Hopefully he will be given the time he needs to learn what he needs to learn. If he is thrown into the starting role immediately, he could struggle. He needs to learn how to read pro level defenses and how to make his reads faster. He needs to adjust to a pro offense and work on fine tuning his accuracy. If you’re in a 2QB league, he’s definitely worth a pick if you can wait a year or two for him. His first few years in the NFL could be like his first year in college as he makes that transition. He has the potential to be a starter in the NFL for years to come, he just needs an NFL team willing to be patient with him.

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