The Young WR Bubble
America has seen a fair number of economic bubbles in the last twenty years. The internet bubble of the mid-90’s, the real estate bubble in the mid-2000’s (which contributed to the financial bubble), and now we see a student loan bubble bursting at its seams. This is not meant to be a lesson in finance, but there is something to be said for fiscal responsibility and its applications in dynasty football.
The current bubble swelling in the dynasty community is the hoarding of young wide receivers, putting a staunch focus on age when constructing a roster. Now, I am not an anti-ageist, but I always have the tendency to question the viability of such a philosophy. Of course, a talented young wide receiver is worth more than a similarly talented older receiver, there is no disputing that point. Instead, the question I am asking is this: Are owners hinging their championship hopes too significantly on young wide receivers in lieu of prioritizing talent?
For the purposes of this study, I will use the last 20 years of wide receiver performance (1996-2015) and define success as a top 36 finish in total fantasy points (but also looked at fantasy points per game). I also excluded receivers who did not manage to play in 8 games, otherwise I would have to include a Jerome Pathon season, and who wants that?
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Last year, I looked at player lifetime value and wrote a section about the cost of sitting on a wide receiver who is not in a position to produce. For me, that creates a threshold to balance talent and opportunity, with more emphasis on the former. However, recent results have skewed the perception on how a young receiver performs. Below is a look at wide receivers over the last 20 years age 23 and under.
While there are some clear spikes, it has only been recently where young wide receivers are dominating the top 36 player list. Before 2014, no season had had more than 8 players in the top 36 with an average of just 4.2 per season. 2014 (nine) and 2015 (eleven) both shattered those marks and are contributing to the thought that this is more than just a trend.
Consistency is king
While most dynasty owner wants to pay for past production, and would rather speculate, there is something to be said for buying that production. On average, 60% (21.5) of wide receivers who were a top 36 finisher the previous season are able to repeat. Looking below, that number stays relatively consistent, ranging from 18 to 24 every season.
If you were to compare the first two charts, you can see there is little relationship between the years young players “dominate” the top 36 and those players who repeat. This should be an indicator of the idea that talent is more likely to retain fantasy value (not to be confused with dynasty value) for a team.
Now, if you remember that first chart, there were a few spikes where young players were a disproportionate percentage of the top 36 wide receivers during that year. Let’s follow their progress from that season going forward to see if they continue the success:
As expected, the results show that talent will sustain top 36 wide receiver performance but some of these early performers are simply opportunity that will eventually fade (or injury). For every Randy Moss and Torry Holt, there is a Michael Clayton or Germane Crowell who fizzled out after one strong season.
Looking at these trends, we see clear peaks when the talent level of the draft rises. Thus far, these have been unsustainable and we continue to find a diversity of age levels within the top receivers. When comparing receivers in the top 36 to all wide receivers during the year, younger receivers make up a lower ratio of the high scorers compared to the total receiver population.
There is a bell curve of sorts where it peaks at the age 25 and 26 seasons in terms of percent of players and is also the point where the index becomes 100. This does not mean to sell those players at that point, but that teams have more receivers at that age, making it likely that this will be the age range where the most receivers are top 36. What I would pay attention to is how the index rises until age 31. This shows that receivers during this timeframe diminish at a slower rate in the top 36 than the total wide receiver population.
Closing Time
I am not here to change your philosophy on trading 27 year old receivers for a first round pick (or two). That can be a viable strategy given a strong belief in your rookie evaluation skills. Instead, I want to make clear that the surge in youth performance recently has defied what we have seen in the NFL over the last 20 years. This could be the start of something brand new and exciting where the old “3 year rule” for wide receivers is shattered and young players will continue to disproportionately perform as a WR3 or better. More likely, this is a fun blip influenced by some talented wide receiver classes and there will be a correction towards normalcy. Some talented rookies and young players will put up gaudy figures and become perennial staples in the dynasty ranks. However, the high rate of success with draft picks in 2014, for example, will be something we talk about until the next one occurs…2017 perhaps?
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