The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

*Editor’s Note – For total team evaluations, please be sure to use the DLF Newsletter Team Advice Form!*

  1. For my running back keeper in my 10-man, non-PPR league I’m pretty torn. I have Jamaal Charles, Thomas Rawls, and Dion Lewis. In our league, we have a year system where after three years, they can’t be kept anymore. Charles is in his final year (so I only have him this upcoming year). Who should I keep/trade? I’m leaning towards keeping Rawls, but I’m not sure if I’m just better off trading Rawls based on his hype or not. – Dylan in Canada

Ultimately it’s going to come down to your league’s construction. With only 20 running backs starting on a weekly basis, it inherently devalues the position, even despite the non-PPR format. As such I have a tough time believing anyone’s going to pay all that much for a ball carrier they don’t perceive to have an elite ceiling for years to come.

As such, I can absolutely see the case for selling Seattle running back Thomas Rawls, as he’s likely the only one of the three you mentioned who fits that bill. He had a great rookie season, and as of yet the Seahawks have done nothing to address the position apart from re-signing perpetual disappointment Christine Michael. With that said, there remains an argument to be had that you’d be selling high on the young runner.

Rawls was phenomenal on the ground in 2015, but he still has yet to produce much of anything through the air. Sure, you won’t be getting the point-per-reception given your scoring, but having a true three-down running back enhances any ball carrier’s viability – thus far three coaching staffs (two in college and one in the pros) have determined Rawls can’t do much through the air, and given that precedent it’s hard to see that changing. If Seattle puts the ball in Russell Wilson’s hands more often moving forward, it’s more than reasonable to assert a running back who doesn’t catch passes will be, at least somewhat, devalued.

So if you can sell high I’d do it. You’re surely not going to be able to do so with either Jamaal Charles or Dion Lewis, even though both should be in store for solid 2016 production. I’d look to move Rawls and ride with one of your veteran backs, but if push comes to shove and you can’t make a move you deem beneficial for your team, I’d roll with Rawls.

  1. I’m in a 10-team dynasty league, where I’ve been contending for the past two seasons. I think I’ve got a good shot this year, except I’m not the strongest at running back (I’m good at receiver and tight end). There’s an owner who thinks he can contend (he probably can’t), who has pick 1.01 and has been interested in my Jordy Nelson before.  I’ve offered him Jordy and pick 1.07 for pick 1.01 and his 2017 first. Should I continue forward with my offer of Jordy and 1.07?  It could hurt my immediate chances at winning, as Jordy fit well into my 4th/5th receiver spot and could be great, but I also know I need running back help. Other potential offers I can send to him are Randall Cobb and pick 1.07 for 1.01 and a 2017 first, or Donte Moncrief and a 2017 second for 1.01.  What are your thoughts on the original trade and these alternatives? – Ryan in AZ

Of all the options you mentioned, I think I actually like the third one the best. I’ve been lower than most on Donte Moncrief, but after sifting through the 2015 numbers I can understand why many are excited for his future moving forward. He was actually more efficient than I expected within the scope of his offense, and while it didn’t really show up in the stat sheet (he was only a PPR WR1 once last season), I like to look at a player’s efficacy as a means of judgment moving forward.

With that said, Moncrief still remains more hype than hope, as through two seasons he just hasn’t put it together in a meaningful fantasy way. It’s entirely possible things click in 2016, especially given the presumably healthy return of quarterback Andrew Luck, but TY Hilton remains as a target hog, and Phillip Dorsett seems ready to establish a role in the offense as well. I’d be extremely surprised if Moncrief approaches what either Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb are likely to do.

And to the two Packers you’re prepared to move, there’s certainly nothing wrong with those deals either. However, trading Moncrief instead allows you to hang onto your second 2016 first-round pick, which could then be used to gain even more running back value via trade if your league-mates are willing. All told, in order to provide yourself with the best shot this year, as well as get the most return on your metaphorical trade dollars, the Moncrief deal makes the most sense to me.

  1. In my 10-team non-PPR league where we keep 10 players my running backs are Le’Veon Bell and Matt Jones, and I’m currently starting Brandin Cooks at FLEX.   I’ve been offered LeSean McCoy, Jonathan Stewart and pick 1.08 for Bell. I hate to lose Bell but this is enticing. – Kevin in CO

I think I’d stand pat. As loyal readers of the Mailbag know, I’m more bullish than most on LeSean McCoy and Jonathan Stewart (*swoon*). But, I simply can’t ignore the freight train of fantasy production that is Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell.

Yes, both of Bell’s last two seasons have ended prematurely due to injury, but the fact is when he’s on the field he produced. He’s a do-it-all ball carrier who plays an incredibly large portion of his team’s snaps, and with the recent suspension of receiver Martavis Bryant, he’s likely to to be an even bigger part of the team’s passing game (hard to believe considering he accrued 105 targets in 2014). He’s also no stranger to the end zone (22 touchdowns in 35 games), which is extremely important in a non-PPR setting.

Yes, I believe McCoy will be a solid, low-end RB1 in 2016, and yes, Stewart is the Panthers’ underrated ball carrier until proven otherwise. The pick also carries significant value as well, and will continue to accumulate worth up until the point when you’re on the clock, but the fact is you’re not getting any piece here that is something worth moving a mountain for. Finally, considering you’re fine at FLEX with Brandin Cooks, I just don’t see you massively (if at all) upgrading your starting lineup through this deal – I’d rather hang onto the proven stud.

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eric hardter