The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

*Editor’s Note – For total team evaluations, please be sure to use the DLF Newsletter Team Advice Form!*

  1. I’m in a 12-team PPR league which has been going for five years, with me entering my second year having taken over a team in 2015. The team I inherited was terrible and injuries killed me last year, but thanks to some waiver luck, I managed to drag my team kicking and screaming into a runner-up spot last year. This season I’m left with a solid, if unbalanced base. I’m set at quarterback and stacked at receiver, but my problem is at running back where all I really have is Eddie Lacy and Devonta Freeman (we start 2-3). Neither of them is a sure thing this season. I’ve been invited to propose a trade by another owner who owns David Johnson, Thomas Rawls and Latavius Murray, any one of whom will significantly boost my stock. I’m curious to know what sort of trade you’d propose in my situation, if any. I only have the 1.11 pick this year, so I’m willing to include that. He also has Peyton Manning as his only quarterback, so my Tom Brady may carry some value.Jay in South Africa

Truthfully, I don’t think you’re as bad off as you believe.  Yes, Eddie Lacy is coming off a relatively poor year (by his previous standards), and has emerged as a bit of a dynasty lightning rod – but it’s prudent to remember this is a player who was a PPR RB1 in two of three years, and judging by recent pictures, is taking his coach’s challenge to lose weight seriously.  And while I’m not a huge fan of Atlanta’s Devonta Freeman and believe regression is in order, he was still the overall PPR RB1 last season, by a large margin.  If nothing else, in an absolute worst-case scenario he’ll still be a dynamite pass-catching back in 2016.

So when I look at guys like David Johnson, Thomas Rawls and Latavius Murray, I’m not so certain they’ll seismically improve your roster.  DJ is the gem of the bunch, but he’ll undoubtedly cost more than you’re likely willing to pay (depending on how much you value your firstborn).  Rawls had a great freshman season, but it remains to be seen if Seattle adds competition for him via the draft, and Oakland has already proclaimed they’ll be doing just that with Murray.  If you’re looking for an upgrade, I’d want more of a sure thing than either of those guys.  I suppose you could offer Tom Brady and your first round pick to your QB-starved potential trader partner, but short of him giving you Rawls for that price, I’d just roll out with who you have now.

  1. I’m not extremely deep at running back but may have the opportunity to obtain a young and, possibly, elite receiver in Allen Robinson in exchange for DeMarco Murray straight up. I’m by no means lacking talent at receiver, but feel it might be worth giving up an aging, yet prospective RB1/2 for a guy that could be WR1 for years to come. Also, the fact that we can start up to four receivers and our league is half-PPR, I feel this could be a huge upgrade or at least provide me expendable receiver pieces to trade away later. How fast would you run (if at all) to accept this deal? Chad in CA

I don’t have my stopwatch on me, but if you could strap a rocket pack to a cheetah, I’d essentially halve it’s 40-yard dash time.  Otherwise, Allen Robinson’s next tattoo might just be of your league-mate’s “trade withdrawn” email.

  1. Just won the championship! Being a contract league though I’m losing some players going into free agency. I am deep at receiver, but very thin at running back, tight end and linebacker. Who of these receivers would you shop: Nelson Agholor, Antonio Brown, Brandin Cooks, Michael Floyd, Josh Gordon, Cody Latimer, Demaryius Thomas, Sammy Watkins, or Kendall Wright?Paul in Vancouver

Out of everyone you mentioned, I’d look to shop the guys who carry the most value, while also having the most uncertain levels of production.  As such, I’d look to shop the duo of Brandin Cooks and Josh Gordon.  Don’t get me wrong, I like both players, but given the nature of your league (contract), as well as the stability you already have at the position, maximizing value becomes imperative.

With Cooks, he had a great year, but I have to wonder if some regression is in order.  He scored a lot of touchdowns, and while it’s not unreasonable to think he can maintain that pace, Willie Snead was nearly as good (or better) in every other aspect of the game, and it’s not crazy to think he begins to siphon off some of the team’s receiving touchdowns.  After all, he did quite well scoring the ball in college.

As for Gordon, this one is self-explanatory.  Gun to me head, and without any sort of inside information, I think he plays this year, but it’s far from certain.  Moreover, we still don’t know what we’re going to see under center for Cleveland this year.  Since getting the most fantasy value you can as soon as possible moves to the forefront in a contract league, I wouldn’t fault you for shipping Gordon off to an owner who staunchly believes he’ll be back as an elite WR1 in 2016.

  1. I drafted Tyler Lockett for my bench to let him develop. His punt and kick off returns do not count so he would not be trade bait at this time in his career. Will he ever be an elite WR1 in Seattle?Larry in Arizona

In all likelihood, probably not.  That’s no slight against Tyler Lockett, but the fact is it’s incredibly tough to be a WR1 in fantasy, especially if you play for a team that doesn’t throw the ball a ton.  Now don’t get me wrong, I know things are subject to change, and in fact Seattle was one of only three teams to support three top-50 PPR receivers in 2015.  But Jermaine Kearse is (somewhat surprisingly) returning, and Doug Baldwin finally added touchdown-scoring to a repertoire that was always overlooked despite a strong body of work otherwise.  Again, Lockett is poised to become a fantasy asset, but if someone is willing to buy for an elite ceiling, I’d be selling every day and twice on Sundays.

  1. I just traded Carlos Hyde, Jeremy Langford, James Jones, the Lions defense, and picks 1.11/3.11 for Alshon Jeffery, TJ Yeldon, Tre Mason, pick 2.10 and a 2017 second round pick. What are your thoughts on this trade?Ro in OH

I love it.  People seem to forget, but Alshon Jeffery was one of the best fantasy receivers last year on a per-game basis, functioning as a target hog and doing basically everything DeAndre Hopkins did, just in fewer contests.  And truthfully the injuries don’t concern me, as Jeffery didn’t miss a game the previous two seasons.  He’s easily the best asset in the deal, and the only one worthy of a first-round pick in a startup draft.

Despite the signing of Chris Ivory, I still like TJ Yeldon quite a bit as well.  He’s a true three-down back, and I’d be shocked if he doesn’t approach 200 touches this season, at the minimum.  I don’t think he has any less uncertainty than Carlos Hyde or Jeremy Langford, despite the recent devaluation.

So with two of the best three players (at worst), I think you nailed this.  You acquired the best asset in the deal by far, and didn’t give up anything in the way of guaranteed production.  In my estimation, these are the types of deals teams make to ensure they’re that much closer to winning it all.

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eric hardter