Post Combine Rookie Mock: Round One
This is undoubtedly one of my favorite times of the rookie season. The combine is complete and the dust has settled a little bit. The pro days are underway, and the NFL draft is approaching. It is only a matter of time before the rookie drafts start. It is also the time of year when every time I think I’ve made up my mind about my own rankings I see, hear, or read something which makes me go back to my original thoughts and either confirms them or makes me reconsider. I’m sure I’m not the only one! After all, if you’re reading this article right now you’re somewhere in the same process.
For this mock, we did three rounds with ten teams, so you’re getting a top 30 at this point in time. We assumed PPR scoring and traditional lineups (so not a 2QB or superflex league). All of the drafters were asked to give a brief intro to their selection, and I’ll be providing some additional thoughts on each one as well. Keep in mind it is very early in the process. There are going to be opinions shared in this mock which will completely change in the next few weeks and months. There will be players selected in the top 30 who go undrafted in most rookie drafts, and there might be some future first rounders we didn’t draft. It happens when you are doing things like this early, but that is a part of the fun! Enjoy!
1.01 – Ezekiel Elliot, RB Ohio State
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Nick’s thoughts: I struggled with this selection, but ultimately went with Elliott because he’s the “safe pick.” He has the highest floor and potentially highest ceiling in this class. He has a thick frame at 6’0″ 225 lbs and blazed a 4.48 40 yard dash, which is impressive at his weight. I was disappointed in his vertical and broad jump performance at the combine. He’s a very well rounded back with good hands, great blocking, and can make defenders miss or run them over. I almost overthought this pick, but went back to film. Elliott is a good football player and it will translate to the NFL level. I comp Elliott to Frank Gore or Doug Martin.
My thoughts: In today’s world of fantasy, it struck me as funny that Elliot is considered a “safe pick,” though Nick just might be right. While no prospect is ever a can’t miss pick, Elliot does seem to be a pretty safe bet. He has the skill set you want, the character a pro should have, and the athletic ability to make it all work. While I don’t think he’ll be a future Hall of Famer, he could definitely be an all pro a few times during his NFL, which definitely makes him worth the first pick in the rookie draft. I might still lean Treadwell at this point in time, but the combine closed the gap.
1.02 – Laquon Treadwell, WR Mississippi
My thoughts: Treadwell continues to be my top player in this draft class. If I were ranking based on pure talent, Elliot might edge him out by the slimmest of margins, but the career longevity of the receiver position makes Treadwell the choice for me at the top of my list. I was a little disappointed he elected not to run at the combine. I didn’t need to see him light up the track, but I did hope to see him run somewhere in the 4.5s. If he could do that, I’m not concerned about his speed. There are a lot of great receivers who run in that range. If he’s a 4.6 or slower, I might start to get concerned. He could have put those concerns at ease and didn’t.
Overall, Treadwell has everything you could want in a receiver, except for the possible speed. His hands were on display at the combine and definitely if you watch his games. His leaping ability and body control also jump off the page and allow him to make catches even when he’s covered. He’ll be the top target on an NFL team soon, and a top 20 receiver in fantasy leagues very soon.
1.03 – Josh Doctson, WR TCU
Adam’s thoughts: At the three spot this one was quite easy. The elder statesman (yes, he is old at 23/24) out of TCU, Doctson is steadily pushing on Laquon Treadwell for the top receiver position in this 2016 class. After having another great year, Doctson crushed the combine by showing he can pair his silky smooth route running and ability to snag contested catches with an incredible burst ability. He posted top three performances in the vertical leap, broad jump, and the 20 and 60 yard shuttles. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see him go ahead of Treadwell in your rookie draft this year. I also considered Leonte Carroo and Tyler Boyd.
My thoughts: I like Doctson, and I wasn’t surprised to see him go at the third spot in this mock draft. However, I disagree with Adam when it comes to the gap between him and Treadwell. I think there is still a pretty decent sized gap between the two receivers and I would be shocked if Doctson going before Treadwell in rookie drafts happens with even a small amount of regularity. Doctson does seem to be the complete package when it comes to catching the ball, but I am still a little worried about his lean frame and what that means with bigger and stronger corners in the NFL.
1.04 – Sterling Shepard, WR Oklahoma
Austan’s thoughts: I’m the highest on Shepard out of any of our devy rankers. He has been my third-ranked wideout since the middle of last college football season. I can’t stop seeing Randall Cobb when I watch him. I don’t get too caught up in intangibles like competitiveness, but the kid is just a hard-nosed football player. Wherever Oklahoma lined him up, he made plays. He does everything well, and at the combine, he did everything well. Shepard, along with Doctson, were two of the big winners at the combine, at least in my eyes. I thought Shepard lacked a little in the straight-line speed department, so his 4.48 40-yard dash definitely helps his stock. He’s an advanced route runner with an uncanny ability to shift gears to break free from coverage. I envision him being a PPR machine out of the slot. He’s ready to make an impact right away.
My thoughts: Players like Shepard always scare me a little bit when it comes to rookie drafts, especially prior to the NFL draft. He’s definitely talented, but as Austan mentioned he is most likely to fill the slot receiver role on an NFL team. For a slot receiver to be a real fantasy asset, he needs to be drafted to a top passing offense with a top quarterback. Otherwise they just end up being inconsistent. There isn’t any way to tell where Shepard will end up. In terms of ability, I am a little concerned that he might be close to maxing out since his route running is so advanced.
1.05 – Tyler Boyd, WR Pittsburgh
George’s thoughts: After the top three, there is a clear second tier that spans most of the remaining first round. As of today, Boyd has a very tenuous grasp on the fourth spot for me, largely due to ownership of the safest floor. Boyd has average size (6’1”, 197 lbs) and his combine was blah at best, but receivers are capable of winning even without elite measurements. For Boyd, that includes strong hands, a diverse route tree, and vision after the catch. He could be a great second option in Cincinnati, Atlanta, or with the New York Giants.
My thoughts: Calling Boyd’s combine “blah” might be a little generous. In some ways it was downright bad. He is likely sliding down draft boards as other players start to move up. I was a little surprised to see him go fifth in this mock. I had him tentatively pegged as a late first rounder. He seems to have everything you can’t measure in a receiver, which will likely give him that high floor George mentioned; however, I question what his ceiling might actually be. I think he’s a complementary receiver in the NFL and a likely WR3 in fantasy leagues.
1.06 – Derrick Henry, RB Alabama
Harrison’s thoughts: Derrick Henry may be the best running back to play for Alabama. He broke Herschel Walker’s single season SEC record, he’s got NFL size (6’3”, 247), and is an athletic monster. He had the best broad jump at the combine this year while weighing at an incredible 247 lbs. What stood out to me looking at Henry was his 2014 season with T.J. Yeldon. Yeldon proved himself to be a balanced RB in the NFL, but in 2014, Yeldon split an even timeshare with Henry and Henry actually led the team in rushing yards as well as RB touchdowns. Watching Henry play, for him to be successful in the NFL, he will need a decent offensive line as he struggles to create plays himself out of the backfield, but I expect him to get a lot of touches in games late as a possession bully and should be a fantasy threat starting his rookie year.
My thoughts: Henry is going to face the same issue a lot of college backs, especially Alabama backs, face when being evaluated. People are going to wonder how much of their production was due to their own talent and how much of it was due to running behind what was basically an NFL quality offensive line. Henry is unique in a lot of ways, especially his size/speed mix, but he isn’t a complete running back. As Harrison hinted, he struggles if he needs to make a defender miss. He also tends to run towards contact, choosing to try running through people. This often leads to injury in the NFL with bigger and stronger defenders. I don’t think he can change it, so his figure team will just need to learn how to deal with it.
1.07 – Will Fuller, WR Notre Dame
Kevin’s thoughts: Will Fuller has been tagged as a speedy deep threat leading up to the NFL Draft in April. While, yes, he has five touchdowns of over 70 yards, and finished with a yards per reception of 20.3 on 62 receptions, he only had a 14.4 yards per reception in his sophomore season when he caught 76 passes for 1,094 yards. Over his Junior and sophomore years, he totaled 29 touchdowns and wasn’t just a deep threat, he was a threat. In the Fiesta Bowl vs the seventh ranked Ohio State Buckeyes, Fuller put up a solid line of 113 yards on six receptions and a receiving touchdown on an 81 yard touchdown pass. Mel Kiper with ESPN has indicated that his forty-yard dash and overall dynamic ability will get him first round consideration in the NFL draft. I could see a number of teams looking to add a threat like Fuller; teams like the Falcons at 17, the Vikings at 23, or the Bengals at 24.
My thoughts: Fuller just might have gained more from the combine than any other receiver. We knew he was fast, so the 4.32 second time in the 40 wasn’t a complete shock. What possibly made his stock climb was how he caught the ball during the drills at the combine. His hands were at times a little suspect during his time in college, so it was nice to see some improved focus and performance. His route running needs to improve a little bit, and he needs to continue to work on his hands. Otherwise he might be the next version of Ted Ginn Jr.
1.08 – Corey Coleman, WR Baylor
Rob’s thoughts: Corey Coleman seems to be getting buried in the process leading up to the draft, and I don’t quite get it. He is admittedly imperfect; however, he is electric with the football in his hands and plays a fearless game. He can climb the ladder for the football and will be a threat to pick up chunks of yardage after the catch. Even if he is not a true number one, I think he terrorizes the league for a long time.
My thoughts: I think Rob is right about the lack of media coverage for Coleman, which is why it is very unfortunate Coleman couldn’t be a full participant in the combine due to injury. My concerns for Coleman all center around his eventual role on an NFL team and that fact that I have no idea what it will be. He’s built like a slot receiver, but he doesn’t have the sure hands and advanced route tree we are used to seeing from guys playing that position. Does that mean he plays as an undersized outside receiver? I’m not sure. He is going to need a creative play caller to make the most of his talents.
1.09 – Leonte Carroo, WR Rutgers
Coinflip’s thoughts: Unlike my other picks this is one I am solidly confident on. It is thought that Leonte Carroo is the best wide receiver in Rutgers’ history. He has the size at 6′ and roughly 215 lbs to stand strong against the defenses in the NFL. Only two wide receivers ran better 40 times than 4.4 at the combine and although this class lacks speed he did run a respectable 4.51 at the combine in comparison to all wide receivers that day. At the 1.09 mark in this mock, Carroo makes a solid, safe pick that could provide production in his first year if he goes the right team.
My thoughts: I’m a little torn on my evaluation of Carroo. He is well put together and plays with the toughness you want in a receiver. He also seems to have natural hands and has those great wide receiver instincts you want to see. On the other side of the coin he seems to be just an average athlete for the position and doesn’t always seem to be as quick or fluid as I would like. I think this might lower his ceiling a little bit, but he could present solid value both in the NFL and fantasy drafts.
1.10 – Devontae Booker, RB Utah
Izzy’s thoughts: At 1.10 he is a steal. He’s pushing Henry as my second running back in this class, and he’s my sixth overall prospect. Booker does everything you want out of three down runner. He has great vision, patience, agility/elusiveness, hands and pass blocking ability. He won’t win a ton of foot races, but that isn’t imperative to become an elite player at the NFL level. He has the potential to be an RB1, and fits today’s NFL like a glove. I’ve seen comps of Foster, Forte and Bell, but those are the upside guys. I think he most resembles Rashard Mendenhall coming out of Illinois (before he bulked up) both from a skillset and total offensive usage. I’ll take that all day at the end of the first round.
My thoughts: I think virtually everyone has Elliot as the top rusher, and the majority of them have Henry as number two on that list. After that pair, there are a wide number of options for the third rusher. Personally, Booker isn’t my number three guy. There are going to be a lot of different comparisons for Booker, but I’m going to throw another one out there. I think he is Shonn Greene if Greene could catch. Both have solid size and are grinders who lack speed. I think Booker is a RB2 in the NFL if he lands on the right team. Otherwise he’s likely to just be a committee back with a more explosive home run hit as his running mate.
That’s it for the first round. Any surprises in these first ten? Who do you think will be the first few picks of the second round? We will be back soon with the second round.
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021