Chris Ivory’s signing with the Jacksonville Jaguars appears imminent, and those with T.J. Yeldon on their dynasty rosters are weeping and gnashing their teeth. But they’re not the ones who should be concerned.
First, the contract. Early reports value Ivory’s deal as worth more than $30 million over five years. At first glance, that looks bad for Yeldon, but the second glance is more important. A deal of that length almost certainly includes high-salary, non-guaranteed money seasons near the end of the deal. The Jaguars front office folks aren’t fools; they left themselves an out. Moreover, the Jaguars need to dish out some cash to meet the oft-overlooked salary floor.
With that out of the way, let’s look at the individual impact of Ivory’s acquisition.
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
Chris Ivory
This is a sell opportunity for Ivory. In New York, he was locked in as the early down back; in Jacksonville, that’s his ceiling, but his floor is much lower. Regardless of your opinion of Yeldon, he’s more formidable competition than Bilal Powell. And while Ivory got paid, the Jaguars spent a premium draft pick on Yeldon just last offseason. Plus, he’s moving from a team that rushed the ball 28 times per game in 2015 (10th in the league) to one that rushed the ball 23.5 times per game (30th). If Ivory can keep up his 16.5 carry per game pace from New York, consider it a victory.
Most owners rostering Ivory don’t see it this way. The majority wouldn’t part with him for anything less than an early 2016 rookie second (most of the write-in voters wanted a first):
If you own Ivory, look to sell for an early second, but settle for a mid-second.
T.J. Yeldon
Yeldon is a potential buy low, but only if the owner rostering him overreacts. Yeldon will lose some carries, but his value comes from the passing game, and Ivory won’t impact him there. The real concern is touchdowns. Yeldon didn’t have many in 2015, but savvy owners expected an uptick in 2016. If the Jaguars use Ivory primarily as a short-down back, that upside is capped. But Ivory isn’t an obvious upgrade there. Take a look at this chart, which shows what portion of each player’s runs, compared to the league average, gained at least “X” yards.
Yeldon was a middling rusher across the board, but Ivory was atrocious at getting past the line of scrimmage. And we can’t blame offensive line play: Jacksonville’s wasn’t obviously better than New York’s. Even if the Jaguars plan to use Ivory over Yeldon in short-yardage situations, he may not keep that role for long.
Alas, most owners rostering Yeldon aren’t discounting him much based on the news. But if you can find someone willing to part with him for the 1.11 or later, I’d make that move.
Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson, and Allen Hurns
Bortles and Hurns are the sneaky losers in this acquisition. Ivory’s signing indicates Jacksonville’s desire to move away from 2015’s pass-happy ways. When you include sacks as non-rushes, the Jaguars ran the ball on only 35% of plays in 2015. Only the Dolphins, Ravens, and Lions ran less. Ivory’s addition suggests they’ll move toward the middle of the pack in 2016 — even further toward the middle than they otherwise would have, that is. To be sure, run-pass ratio is largely driven by game script, and Ivory doesn’t do much to improve the team on that front. But if nothing else, he’s a signal that the front office thinks they’ll be in a position to run more often in 2016.
This is all bad news for Bortles, whose success was driven by volume. It’s also bad news for Hurns, the offense’s number-two target. Most owners won’t change their valuations of these two based on Ivory’s signing, so now is the time to get a first-round rookie pick for either player. Robinson should still get his targets, though, so I wouldn’t worry much about him.
[/am4show]
- Dynasty Capsule: Miami Dolphins - January 26, 2019
- Dynasty Capsule: Buffalo Bills - January 21, 2019
- Dynasty Capsule: Carolina Panthers - January 21, 2018
“If the Jaguars use Ivory primarily as a short-down back, that upside is capped. But Ivory isn’t an obvious upgrade there.”
Unlikely Jags just spend $6m/year for a short yardage back and definitely didnt bring him in at that price to simply backup Yeldon to use Yeldon as the receiving plus short-down back. Yeldon’s value was in his safety as the Jag’s “guy” based on the pick invested, meaning he would get the bulk of the Jags carriers going forward.
That security which is now gone, along with any uptick in goal line work, which hurts his near-term value tremendously.
Actually, it is very much possible. As Brian pointed out, the salary floor has increased spending for a lot of teams with too much cap space that risk having to write a check for the difference at the end of the season. If you checked out the link in the introduction, you’ll see that the Jaguars are the absolute biggest offenders in this regard and second place isn’t even close.. $69 million in cap space under these circumstances says plenty about their motivations.
Spend money on talent now or spend it later and without gaining a thing. It’s an obvious choice for a team that doesn’t have much behind Yeldon.
Yeldon always had value do to his opportunity. It was never his talent. He was mediocre as best as a rookie and was never viewed that highly as a rookie. His best assets, opportunity and volume have no been taken away. Second round picks al by the way side all the time (hellow bishop Sankey). Let’s not under react to this grade. This hurts Yeldon. Ivory stays about the same.
Ivory doesn’t stay the same vs his Jets usage last year. He was a threat for 20 carries a game in 2015; that’s gone now.
Both players are downgraded. Yeldon just lost crucial volume and any chance at goal-line work, so it’s arrow straight down for him. Ivory just lost any chance at 20 carries a week but probably gained more goal-line opportunity than he was getting as a jet, so he’s getting a big arrow down and a smaller arrow up (net result: arrow down).
And they both injured easily, so that’s a wash.
Let’s also not pretend that Bishop Sankey would have been drafted in the first 4 rounds of the 2015 NFL draft. You can’t conflate wildly different draft classes in terms of positional talent and pretend you’re talking about the same thing. I’d still take Yeldon over Ivory. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb
I’ll take Yeldon over Ivory in any format that awards anything for receptions, but you’re kidding yourself if you think Ivory wasn’t signed to be the clear-cut bruiser of the running-game. Yeldon was already getting yanked all last year from goal-line work, and now they went out and overpaid for Ivory. Put two and two together.
Expect a weekly average of 15 touches and no goal-line work for Yeldon so long as Ivory is healthy. He’ll be the safer fantasy start most weeks, but his chances at RB1 numbers just got nuked. As for Ivory, I predict he’ll be a boom-or-bust borderline RB2 ultra dependent on touchdowns.
I think the real winner here will be whoever doesn’t get injured, as whoever’s left will instantly become a low-end RB1. Both players get banged up easily. Ivory because he seeks contact, Yeldon because he’s always run like more of a scatback than what his height/weight would have you think; there’s a reason he didn’t get huge workloads at Bama.
I like Yeldon, but many draft analysts had him pegged as a rotational RB coming out of college, and now those guys are looking like they got it right.
Ugh! “Agony” is right. I now have both Yeldon and Ivory on my auction/dynasty/IDP/PPR league roster. No chance to swap one for a draft pick. I will be looking to trade Ivory and keep Yeldon. I have Bortles also (currently my QB2, but matched or exceeded Rivers many weeks). I still expect low end QB1 numbers from Bortles going forward.
I picked up Powell late last season in a dynasty league as a emergency fill-in. What happens to his value, depending on if and who the Jets pick up or draft?
Sorry -not enough coffee or maybe too much…
Forgot about Forte being picked up.
