IDP Cap Casualties
Over the past few weeks, and increasingly so over the last few days,a handful of notable IDP assets were released. Some moves were more surprising than others, but all have meaningful impact to the IDP landscape as we approach the opening of free agency and the NFL draft:
James Laurinaitis, MLB/ILB
Laurinaitis was one of the NFL’s first big cap causalities when the Rams cut a number of their salary heavy players a couple of weeks ago. He, along with Jared Cook and Chris Long (more on him later), were released in an effort to free up roughly $24 million in cap space. At 29-years-old, Laurinaitis shouldn’t have an issue signing and sliding into a starting spot with another team, though there will continue to be questions whether he can maintain subpackage snaps. He struggled in coverage in 2015.
Impact:
With Mark Barron a free agent, this is a clear move to not only save cap space, but re-sign one of Jeff Fisher’s favorite chess pieces. As an undersized linebacker in 2015, Barron excelled in relief of Alec Ogletree as the Rams’ weakside linebacker. The expectation is Ogletree will move to middle linebacker and Barron will re-sign and play on the weakside in 2016. This will result in a position designation change from safety to linebacker. Some suggest this is a hit to Barron’s IDP value, but I disagree. In 2015, as a starter for the Rams from week 7 on, he was a LB2 option in most formats. That’s easily an asset worth acquiring, especially if the perception is his value will take a hit with the shift to linebacker designation.
Potential Free Agent Suitors:
Reports suggest Laurinaitis will meet with New Orleans in short order, which would be an interesting fit. Nothing but mediocrity worked next to Stephone Anthony last year, so he would be a nice upgrade to Dannell Ellerbe on the weakside. A signing with the Saints is unlikely, though,considering the Saints’ cap situation. If it occurs, it’s likely a leadership play by the Saints front office as Laurinaitis’ experience and leadership is invaluable.
With Rolando McClain a free agent, the Cowboys’ middle linebacker spot is open and could be a solid fit. Other spots in need of veteran linebacker talent in the middle of their defense include the Giants, Packers, Cardinals, Ravens, or Bears.
Chris Long, DE
After struggling to stay on the field and accumulate sacks over the last two years, the Rams parted ways with Long at the same time as Laurinaitis. Over the past two years, Long only tallied four sacks in 14 games. He appears to be slowing down significantly and is likely to be relegated to a part time role similar in a career path similar to Jared Allen’s – just a few years earlier. Long wasn’t a worthy IDP asset the past two years and there is no reason to expect that to change as his best football appears to be behind him. Though, big-play leagues may want to keep an eye on where he lands. If he’s utilized as a pass-rushing specialist, he could become a nice matchup play in deeper big-play leagues.
Impact:
Other than Robert Quinn, the Rams defense ends are few and far between with William Hayes and Eugene Sims free agents. Ethan Westbrooks is someone to keep an eye on. He received fourth/fifth round grades coming into the league in 2014, but was undrafted due to perceived character issues. As a raw prospect, Westbrooks hasn’t seen much time in the lineup until this past year when his snaps increased due to Quinn’s injury plagued season. While the Rams will likely add depth at end, considering Fisher’s praise of Westbrooks’ two sacks in two games performance late in the season, it’s not inconceivable he gets an opportunity in 2016.
Potential Free Agent Suitors:
The pool of free agent defensive ends appears to be plentiful, but so are the potential suitors. Any of the Falcons, Dolphins, Saints, Giants, Raiders, Panthers or Cowboys are options for Long.
Mario Williams, DE
This move was expected considering the well-documented 2015 clash between Williams and Rex Ryan, as well as the $13 million cap savings the Bills receive with the release. Williams was always a horrible fit in Ryan’s defense contributing to his lost motivation and one of the worst seasons of his career. At 31-years-old and with a chip on his shoulder after a horrible year, Williams could prove to be a perfect short-term IDP option. He possesses the potential to reach double-digit sacks in his new home, wherever that may be. Considering where his value currently is, he represents a nice buy low option with the likelihood he lands as a starter in a 4-3 scheme.
Impact:
It’s unlikely the Bills will fill Williams’ role from within the organization with only Jarius Wynn as an option. He’s coming off a major injury, after all. With the depth on the defensive line in this year’s draft and the Bills already stating they won’t be active free agency participants, it’s highly likely they add contributors early on in the draft.
Potential Free Agent Suitors:
Same as Chris Long’s list: Falcons, Dolphins, Saints, Giants, Raiders, Panthers or Cowboys.
Charles Johnson, DE
In yet another move to clear cap space, the Panthers released their long-time defensive line leader to save close to $11 million. With Josh Norman and Kawann Short in search of long-term deals, and Johnson struggling to stay healthy in 2015, this was a slam dunk decision for the Panthers. With Kony Ealy’s Super Bowl emergence with three sacks, this move also became a bit more palatable. Johnson should have no issue finding a home at 29-years-old. There is always the possibility he re-signs with the Panthers for less money should he not be happy with suitors on the open market, or lack there of. If healthy, double-digit sacks are not out of the question for Johnson. Though, I wouldn’t pay a great deal of value for him at this juncture.
Impact:
Ealy is a lock to be a 2016 starter for the Panthers, but the team still needs to address the position in free agency or the draft. Ealy’s Super Bowl performance was encouraging with three sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery, but he’s yet to perform consistently throughout his career. He’s posted a sack here and there, but this is really one of his few dominant performances.
Even if the Panthers are entirely confident in Ealy, on the other side, with Jared Allen retiring and Frank Alexander a free agent, Mario Addison is the only remaining body worth talking about. Because of that, the Panthers will likely add depth via free agency or the draft.
Potential Free Agent Suitors:
Same as Chris Long’s list: Falcons, Dolphins, Saints, Giants, Raiders, Panthers or Cowboys.
Donald Butler, ILB
The release of Butler won’t have much lasting IDP impact considering he lost his starting spot and much of his snap share to Denzel Perryman and Manti Te’o mid-way through the 2015 season. His struggles in 2015 and 2014, as well as the pervasive thought that he gave up on the team won’t help his case on the market, either. Unless he lands in an ideal situation, Butler should continue to be a non-factor across IDP leagues like he was to end the 2015 season. However, if he signs with a team where he’s expected to see a high volume of tackle opportunities, Butler could be a viable short-term option.
Impact:
This move speaks to how the Chargers feel about Denzel Perryman who is situated for a breakout season in 2016. It was likely even with Butler on the roster, but removing a competing body only solidifies Perryman’s breakout potential. Through his time as starter in 2015, Perryman performed at a LB1 level. He should match that in 2016, or close to it, with a low LB1/high LB2 forecast.
Butler’s release also inflates Manti Te’o’s value with less competition for snaps. His ceiling is no where near Perryman’s, but he should be serviceable as a LB3 option with a full season of starter playing time.
Potential Free Agent Suitors:
Butler could land with any team looking for linebacker depth, but if he lands with a team like the Bears, Giants or Packers and they don’t add another talent in the draft or free agency making him a 2016 starter, his value will spike. Considering his recent struggles, this would appear unlikely, but it’s certainly possible.
