In case you missed it, here are the divisions we’ve covered in previous installments:
Our tour through the world of IDP sleepers takes us next to the AFC South, where a trio of sophomores seem poised to enjoy breakout campaigns in the near future.
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
Clayton Geathers, S, IND
Last year, the Indianapolis Colts trotted out the starting duo of Mike Adams and Dwight Lowery at safety, with both combining to play 1,940 snaps on defense. With both playing close to every-down roles, it made it all but impossible for the team to get rookie Clayton Geathers involved on the defense, save for in sub-packages. The fourth-round selection out of UCF made the most of his limited opportunities, however, impressing both his coaches and fans alike.
Now, Lowery (30) is an unrestricted free agent looking to cash in on what will likely be his last chance at a lucrative contract. He is unlikely to receive that from the Colts, as their top priority is giving quarterback Andrew Luck a contract extension of historic proportions. In the likelihood that Lowery walks, the team will look towards Geathers to replace his 1100 snaps from last year. That isn’t just wild speculation on my part either: the Colts website is suggesting the same thing.
A true box safety if ever there was one, Geathers (6’ 2”) entered the NFL weighing an already-impressive 215 pounds. With a year of pro training, dieting and weight lifting under his belt, it stands to reason he has become even more of an intimidating presence. Geathers’ play on the field certainly didn’t help to remove the “box safety” label from his name: Of safeties who logged at least 275 snaps last year, only eight others had a higher tackle-per-snap ratio.
As Lowery proved last year, even the most average of players can make for a productive IDP asset if given 1100 snaps. Considering his penchant for making tackles, it would hardly be surprising if Geathers finished the 2016 season as a top 10-15 safety in IDP leagues.
Benardrick McKinney, LB, HOU
Those of us in the IDP community all know what the shtick was on inside linebacker Benardrick McKinney coming out of college: an imposing run-stuffer who was unlikely to ever excel in a three-down role.
But…
The fine people over at Pro Football Focus would have you believe that McKinney actually graded higher in coverage than against the run in his rookie season. And if you know anything about me, you know I’m the Fox Mulder of PFF believers, so I’m inclined to trust their judgement on this one. According to them, McKinney finished the year with a +3.8 grade in coverage and a +0.1 in run support.
Basic math will tell you that he finished the year with a +3.9 overall grade, which is a far cry from the -10.5 overall grade given to fellow inside linebacker Brian Cushing. Cushing, by the way, out-snapped the rookie 1004 to 420 last year. Having already proven he is an asset against the pass, it is likely that the Texans give McKinney increased snaps and responsibilities on defense next season, possibly at the expense of Cushing.
Similar to Geathers, McKinney has a penchant for making tackles. In fact, only ten other linebackers (inside or outside) with at least 400 snaps had a higher tackle-per-snap ratio. Were he to see his snaps increased from 420 to 750, he would be nearly a lock for triple-digit tackles, and that translates to major IDP value.
A safe estimate would be to project McKinney as a LB2 in 2016, with the upside of a low-end LB1. Considering he can be had at a relatively cheap price, now is the time to go all-in on this ascending player.
Hayes Pullard, LB, JAX
Alright, I’m not going to pull any punches: we are digging deep enough here that some Chinese family on the other side of the world is probably staring in disbelief right now wondering why there is a shovel poking through their kitchen floor.
Hayes Pullard doesn’t have the immediate opportunity that the two other players on this list have, considering he is behind stat monsters Telvin Smith and Paul Posluszny at the linebacker position. What he does have, however, is just enough positive game tape to make him worth a speculative add in larger IDP leagues.
While playing inside linebacker for USC, Pullard was able to put up 377 tackles, 25 tackles for a loss and three interceptions. He was then drafted in the seventh round by the Cleveland Browns, only to find himself stuck on the practice squad for the first eight weeks of the season. Finally, the Jaguars decided to take a gamble on him and signed him to their 53-man roster. It wasn’t until Week 16 that he was able to showcase his skills. With Smith sidelined the last two games of the season, Pullard was called upon to start on the weakside, where he proceeded to rack up 17 tackles and a +5.1 overall grade from PFF. In those two games, he was able to justify the faith the Jaguars put in him while also putting forth a compelling case at an increased role in 2016.
There is no chance of him stealing a starting spot away from Smith or Posluszny, but there IS an opening on the strongside. Last year’s starter at the position, Dan Skuta, is recovering from a sports-hernia surgery and is a prime bet to be cut, paving the way for Pullard.
Now, the strongside is certainly not the most glamorous linebacker position in the IDP community. If he excels in that position, however, he could be headed for greener pastures: middle linebacker. It is no secret that Posluszny is a better fantasy player than real life asset. And while his current contract extends through 2017, the team can easily get out of the contract after next year and save $5,000,000 in cap space.
Pullard is a natural inside linebacker and has already proven (albeit in limited fashion) that he can be an above-average player in this league. Should he take over for Posluszny in the middle of the defense, he could easily become a top 15 linebacker in two years.
[/am4show]
- IDP 20/20: Zach Cunningham - February 16, 2017
- IDP Depth Chart Evaluation: AFC West - September 1, 2016
- IDP Depth Chart Evaluations: AFC North - July 27, 2016
No one from Ten?
There weren’t many TEN players that stood out to me as plausible sleeper candidates, but with the release of Michael Griffin I think Da’Norris Searcy could get more tackle opportunities. Also, keep an eye on S Daimion Stafford as a possible replacement at FS.
