Evaluating the Top 12 Running Backs
Looking ahead to the 2016 fantasy season started long ago, even before the 2015 season ended. The running back landscape is more volatile than any other position in fantasy and this upcoming season is going to be as crazy as ever. I asked a really simple question on Twitter the other day, “As of today, how many running backs are you confident in being legit fantasy difference makers in PPR leagues? Legit RB1s, not de facto top-12.” There was a consensus top two, Le’Veon Bell and Todd Gurley, but after that it was filled with a lot of “if” scenarios like “if Lamar Miller re-signs with Miami…” or “if Doug Martin lands on the right team…”. It’s awfully difficult to build a long term sustainable fantasy squad on “ifs” and “buts”. Using the DLF dynasty running back rankings I want to talk about the top players at the position and their potential in making a real difference in 2016.
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Todd Gurley, LA Rams
Week one age: 22 years old
The first and second place votes were exclusive to two players, Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell. No other runner received a vote higher than third. Gurley is a no-brainer as a top two selection. In just 13 games, he rushed for 1,106 yards and 10 touchdowns while adding 21 catches for 188 yards. He rushed for 125+ yards five times and scored at least one touchdown in all but five games. The fact he’ll be just 22 years old by the time week one comes around is just icing on the cake.
Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers
Week one age: 24 years old
Here is the first of our “if” scenarios. If Le’Veon Bell hadn’t torn his MCL and PCL against the Bengals in week eight, perhaps he’d be the top-ranked running back. Bell was having an incredible start to 2015 after sitting out the first two weeks for a violation of the league’s substance abuse policy, which is another knock on him which Gurley doesn’t have. In just over five games he rushed for 556 yards and three touchdowns while catching 24 passes for 136 yards. His combination of rushing and receiving skills in this Steelers offense makes him as dangerous as any skills player in the league. His recovery from knee surgery will be one of the most closely monitored stories throughout the offseason.
David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals
Week one age: 24 years old
This is where it starts to get interesting. Three of nine rankers have him ranked third but he’s also ranked 10thand 11th in two rankings. It’s early signs of the uncertainty amongst the running back position. Johnson is entering his second season but is expected to take over as the featured runner in Bruce Arians’ offense. A true all-around back with the ability to hit pay dirt from anywhere on the field, Johnson keeps a high fantasy floor due to his elite ability as a pass catcher. At 6-foot-1 and 225 pounds, he’s the clear goal line back on an offense that scores often. Even though it’s nearly impossible to predict touchdowns from year to year, it would be an upset if he doesn’t improve on his 12 total scores, eight on the ground and four through the air, from his rookie season. This pick is about expectations moving forward, not having an impressive resume.
Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons
Week one age: 24 years old
Freeman was ranked as high as third in one set of rankings but landed fifth in five separate rankings. After a very pedestrian rookie season in 2014, the new Falcons coaching staff drafted Tevin Coleman to presumably be their guy. By all accounts, Coleman won the job coming out of training camp and was the main part of a committee attack before breaking a rib in week two. Freeman would hit the ground running as a bell-cow runner from weeks three through eight, averaging a gaudy 30.4 fantasy points per game, 11 more than any other runner. Over the second half of the season he would average 16 fantasy points per game, good for seventh best over that span.
Much like other elite PPR options, Freeman was practically dud proof thanks to his involvement in the passing game. It’s my personal opinion that 2015 will go down as the best season of his career. I think Coleman is going to be more involved than people want to believe and Freeman’s ceiling won’t be as high as expected.
Doug Martin, Free Agent
Week one age: 27 years old
Martin exploded onto the scene as a rookie in 2012 and had the look of a long-term dynasty building block before laying back-to-back eggs in years two and three. He was left on the side of the road for dead entering 2015 by both fantasy owners and the Buccaneers, who decided to let him play out the final year of his rookie deal. Martin responded in a big way. He finished with 1,402 yards and six touchdowns while adding 33 catches for 271 yards and another score. Finally regaining a role in the passing game was huge for Martin after catching 49 balls as a rookie but just 25 total over the next two seasons.
One of the biggest “ifs” of the offseason will be if Doug Martin re-signs with the Bucs or moves on in free agency. There are definitely teams out there who could use his services, Baltimore, Dallas, New York Giants and Jets all come to mind. The most likely scenario is a return to Tampa Bay but the league is cold-hearted and doesn’t typically break the bank for 27 year old runners with a 50/50 resume.
Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints
Week one age: 26 years old
Ingram was definitely a surprise last year. With C.J. Spiller signing in free agency it was expected Ingram would simply be a two-down thumper and hopeful goal line back. That was definitely not the case. Spiller was one of the biggest free agency busts of 2015 and Ingram set a career high in receptions with 50. He was on pace to record his first 1,000 yard season as a pro before ending the season on injured reserve with a torn rotator cuff in week 12.
The best thing for Ingram was New Orleans’ decision to not blow things up in the Big Easy. With Sean Payton and Drew Brees both coming back, Ingram will maintain the lead role in the Saints committee attack but the rankers are all over the place on him. He’s ranked as high as third by three rankers but is also ranked as low as 10th, 14th and 15th.
T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars
Week one age: 22 years old
Honestly, I was a little surprised to see Yeldon ranked behind Ingram and Martin. As a 22-year-old running back with a solid, but not spectacular, rookie season under his belt in an up-and-coming offense, Yeldon has the look of an ascending fantasy asset. One of our rankers sees something he really doesn’t like, ranking him as his 18th running back moving forward.
The thing is, even if he isn’t a special talent, the state of the running back position drives his value higher than 18. If you believe he’s a pedestrian talent who will be replaced in the next couple of seasons it makes sense to take an older talent like Adrian Peterson and ride him off into the sunset.
Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers
Week one age: 26 years old
This is the first ranking I completely disagree with. I am 100% off the Eddie Lacy wagon. If I owned him anywhere, which I don’t, I would be looking for the first decent offer to come my way. His conditioning and commitment to the game last season was an embarrassment and something I don’t want to deal with. After back to back 1,100+ rushing yard seasons and 24 total touchdowns to start his career he rushed for 758 yards and scored a total of five touchdowns on a team begging for an offensive playmaker to step up.
Two of our rankers are giving him the benefit of the doubt and ranking him fourth, but he’s also ranked 11th (2x), 13th and 17th . This offseason will be very telling for “Fat Eddie”. If he can get into shape and regain his elite form he’ll be a steal. If he shows up to camp looking like B.J. Raji again he might be out of a job. It’s very possible the Packers draft some competition for him in the upcoming draft.
Thomas Rawls, Seattle Seahawks
Week one age: 23 years old
As soon as Marshawn Lynch tweeted that picture of his slime green cleats being hung up, Rawls saw his value jump way up. As an undrafted rookie out of Central Michigan, Rawls was awesome stepping in for the injured Beast Mode. In 13 games, he rushed for 830 yards and four touchdowns but factored very little into the team’s passing game with just nine receptions on the season. The highlight of his rookie season was a week 11 drubbing of the 49ers to the tune of 30 carries for 209 yards and a touchdown. With Lynch retired and Fred Jackson being 400 years old (roughly), his only current competition is professional disappointment Christine Michael. I expect his ranking to climb a bit as the offseason continues.
Lamar Miller, Free Agent
Week one age: 25 years old
Arguably the biggest “if” on this entire list, Miller’s ranking is probably the most volatile. After four head-scratching seasons in Miami, he enters free agency looking for the right fit and scheme. Miller has produced when given the opportunity but his biggest hurdle as a pro has been playing time. He has legitimate three-down ability, but the coaching staff has always questioned his durability and effectiveness to handle 20 touches per game, but that’s exactly the number he wants in his next offense. With Miami’s cap situation and the likelihood of Miller being the top free agent available, he’ll probably have a new home for 2016.
Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
Week one age: 31 years old
Unless I’m trying to win year one there’s no way I’m taking a 31-year-old running back in a start up dynasty draft. Peterson is a no-brainer Hall of Famer but he’s coming off a 357 touch regular season plus an additional 25 in the playoffs. I understand Peterson is unlike any other running back we’ve ever seen and his year away from football may have rejuvenated him, but a running backs decline is as cruel as they come. It’s difficult to pass up immediate production for longevity, especially at a position with so much uncertainty, but it’s hard to justify Peterson even in a three-year window.
Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers
Week one age: 23 years old
I was a bit surprised to see Gordon ranked in the top 12 over guys like Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard but this is where things really start getting ugly. You could make an argument for any of the next 10-12 running backs to occupy this spot. Gordon gets the nod after an absolutely disastrous rookie season. After being a top five rookie selection last year, he was arguably the biggest bust of the class after rushing for 641 yards, averaging 3.5 yards per carry, catching just 33 balls and failing to score a single touchdown. To make matters worse, he was thoroughly outplayed by Danny Woodhead who managed to score nine touchdowns on the way to a top five PPR running back finish.
Gordon’s fantasy future is now in the hands of new offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt who stated he intends to mold the Chargers run game to suit Gordon’s strengths. Whisenhunt’s running game as a head coach has been awful but he does a lot better as an offensive coordinator. Gordon is an intriguing buy-low candidate if you can get him at the right price but his owners are probably still feeling the sting and looking to get some sort of return on their investment.
In closing, if you don’t get one of the guys you feel really confident in, it might be a better idea to load up on youth at wide receiver or grab an upper-tier tight end or quarterback in the earlier rounds. The running back position in fantasy football is so diluted now you can survive by using the pass catching specialists in PPR leagues like Danny Woodhead, Dion Lewis and Bilal Powell as your RB2.
Follow me on Twitter @OlingerIDP.
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