Welcome to 20/20. As part of our continued Dynasty Scouts coverage and in preparation for the NFL Combine later this month, we’ll be profiling 20 of the top incoming rookies of the class of 2016 by giving you 20 facts you must know.
1.) Player Name – Alex Collins
2.) College – Arkansas
3.) Height/Weight – 5-foot-11, 215 pounds
4.) Birth date – 8/26/1994 (21)
5.) Class -Junior
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6.) Basic college stats – Collins rushed for 1,577 yards and 20 touchdowns while averaging 5.82 yards per carry during his junior season. He finished his three year collegiate career rushing for a total of 3,703 yards and 36 touchdowns while also catching 27 receptions for 167 yards.
7.) NFL Draft round projection – He should be selected anywhere between the mid-third to the mid-fourth round range of the draft.
8.) Current NFL comp – He is very similar to Isaiah Crowell when it comes to running style because both players have the ability to deliver punishment by running through defenders while keeping their balance with good footwork to gain extra yardage.
9.) Best possible destination – Houston Texans. The depth chart is wide open for the taking at the running back position and Collins is talented enough to take over as their three down back.
10.) Worst possible destination – Carolina Panthers. Being able to use his physical style of play along the goal line is crucial for fantasy production. Cam Newton’s ability to run for short yardage touchdowns would be a threat to Collins’ ceiling if he were to get drafted by the Panthers. Collins only had 27 receptions during his three seasons at Arkansas, so his ability to catch the ball and run the proper routes is a major question mark with his game. Taking away a large portion of the goal line work would kill his fantasy value because he has a low floor due to his limited use in the passing game.
11.) Best current skill – He’s a physical runner who will almost always win at the point of contact which allows him to pick up extra yardage at the end of his runs. He’s never going to be pulled at the goal line, because he has the power and size to break tackles to get into the end zone.
12.) Skill that needs to be improved – Ball security is a concern with Collins as he is always fighting for extra yards and he tends to not keep the football covered up. He had 16 career fumbles and he was called out by his head coach Bret Bielema during the middle of the season due to fumbling the ball too much.
13.) Past/current rookie ADP – He is currently the fourth running back off the board with an ADP of 13.25 overall.
14.) Projected dynasty value – Like most running backs, his dynasty value is going to be very dependent on his landing spot from the draft. He has the potential to sneak in the RB1 range if he goes to a team that utilizes him and his skill sets properly. Running backs in this day and age are looked at as “commodities” which means he’s more than likely going to land in a situation where he’s going to split carries within a committee. Due to his lack of receiving prowess, his value in a committee would be dependent on volume of carries and touchdowns which would make him fall into the RB2-RB3 range in dynasty value.
15.) Creating SEC history – Collins joins Georgia’s Hershel Walker and Arkansas’ Darren McFadden as the third running back in SEC history to start their career with three straight seasons with at least 1,000 yards rushing.
16.) Productive right out of the gate – He is the first true freshman in SEC history to start his career rushing for over 300 yards in his first three games.
17.) Highly touted recruit – He was a four star recruit from South Plantation High School in Fort Lauderdale Florida where he rushed for 3,186 yards and 42 touchdowns during his junior and senior year.
18.) His production rivals the elite in his conference – Collins finished third in the SEC in rushing behind Leonard Fournette and Derrick Henry.
19.) Not a momma’s boy – His mother confiscated and disappeared with his National Letter of Intent on signing day preventing Collins of officially signing with Arkansas until he was able to get his father to sign the document for him. Collins’ mother wanted him to stay closer to home and attend the University of Miami.
By reading the tea leaves from this event we can take on the inference that Collins has the ability make life altering choices independently without friends or family members preventing him from making the best possible decision.
20.) Has the ability to take over games – Collins led the SEC with ten games with at least 100-yards rushing which was all but three of the games he played last season.
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Collins will be a better pro than Henry. Jerry Jones could fit a star on his helmet…in more ways than one.
1) His feet stood out as elite to me time and again.
2) I hope his lack of receiving production was due to system and not ability. Do you know if they were throwing the ball to other backs there instead of him?