Way Too Early Rookie Mock: Round One
The 2015 NFL season is officially complete, and unless the victory tour for the Super Bowl champs is fascinating for you, it is time to turn your attention towards free agency and of course the 2016 rookie class. The combine will be here quicker than you realize, so I gathered nine of DLF’s finest and we decided to do a little intro to the 2016 rookie class for you. This is just to help you get a rough feel for the guys currently on our collective radar as we start the draft process. Don’t consider the following mock as an ADP list but rather as a rough outline of the draft class.
For this mock, we did two rounds with ten teams, so you’re getting a top 20. We assumed PPR scoring and traditional lineups (so not a 2QB or superflex league). All of the drafters were asked to give a brief intro to their selection, and I’ll be providing some additional thoughts on each one as well. Keep in mind it is extremely early in the process. There are going to be opinions shared in this mock which will completely change in the next few weeks and months. There will be players selected in the top 20 who go undrafted in most rookie drafts, and there might be some future first rounders we didn’t draft. It happens when you are doing things like this so early, but at least you are getting a little more info on some guys! Enjoy!
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1.01 – LaQuon Treadwell, WR Mississippi
My thoughts: Much like last year’s draft class, the 2016 first overall pick should be a choice between just two players. Do you go with the running back, Elliot, or the receiver, Treadwell. While I don’t think either of them has quite the ceiling Amari Cooper and Todd Gurley do, I think they are both pretty close to that point. Of the two, I decided to go with Treadwell first overall for many of the same reasons I had Cooper as first overall from this point last year until now. The wide receiver position provides more consistency and longevity than the running back position, so when the talent level is equal I’m going with the receiver.
Treadwell was the top receiver in the nation coming out of high school, and he lived up to the expectations. He has good size at 6-foot-2, assuming he actually measures that tall, but might need to add some muscle to help him with press coverage and contested balls in the NFL. His overall athletic ability is also very good, but not great. He isn’t going to be taking the top off of defenses, but he doesn’t need to do that. Where he really shines is his natural receiving skills. He has the same instincts and feel for the game that all of the great ones possess. He has natural hands and knows how to get open against defenses, and if he isn’t open he still makes the catch. Easily the best receiver and best offensive player in this draft class in my opinion.
1.02 – Ezekiel Elliot, RB Ohio State
Bruce’s thoughts: I feel that he’s a bullet proof running back prospect which made the pick very easy to make. He was very productive in college as he led the Big Ten in rushing with 1,821 yards and 23 touchdowns. Elliott broke out as a 19-year-old sophomore by taking over 27.37 percent of the team’s offense and then he continued his success during his junior season by taking a strangle hold of 35.93 percent of the offensive yardage. His draft pedigree will inflate his value because he will be the first running back selected in this year’s draft. Elliott should get an opportunity to start as a rookie because he’s a proficient pass blocker and he’s really good at catching the ball out of the backfield.
My thoughts: At this point in the process, I think Elliot is the top running back in this draft class and it isn’t even close. He has the physical traits to be a true bell cow in the NFL. He has solid speed, great power, is gifted with his feet, the balance to bounce off hits and the instincts to know where to go with the football. About the only concerns you can find with him might be his lack of usage in the passing game (though he has the ability) and the number of big hits he takes. He might have a slightly shorter shelf life than a lot of other running backs, but he’s going to be a rock solid RB1 while he is in the NFL.
1.03 – Michael Thomas, WR Ohio State
Chris’s thoughts: Treadwell and Elliott are going traditionally one and two in drafts. I firmly believe that Thomas is perfect at three. He has amazing route running skills and will fit on any offense. He can be a WR1 however, I think he is a perfect WR2 and can really shine. I love this pick!
My thoughts: It is still really early, but at the current point in time it seems like there is a pretty significant tier drop after the top two players. At this point, you could make really solid arguments for at least five players to come off the board as the third pick. Some separation will be created by the draft process, but at this point in time I see very little difference between the third and the seventh picks. As for Thomas specifically, he has nice size, good hands and some nice run after the catch ability. What he lacks is supreme athleticism. His combine performance could move him up or down NFL draft boards. I think he profiles as a high end possession receiver in the NFL.
1.04 – Josh Doctson, WR TCU
Alex’s thoughts: There are certainly speed concerns when it comes to Doctson, but his God-given ability to track and catch the ball more than make up it. Despite his wiry build, he has a penchant for out-leaping and over-powering cornerbacks when going up to make a play on the ball, making him the kind of wide receiver that quarterbacks love throwing to in clutch situations. His skill set makes him an ideal red-zone threat, which is what his role likely will be early on as he learns to adjust to the NFL.
My thoughts: Doctson just might be the best receiver in this draft class when he is up in the air. His body control and leaping ability are definitely special. Unfortunately he isn’t as impressive with his feet on the ground. His route tree is limited, his frame is lean, and he struggles a little when he isn’t playing along the sideline. He definitely has talent, but I don’t think he projects as the top receiver on an NFL team.
1.05 – Derrick Henry, RB Alabama
Izzy’s thoughts: I was surprised by Michael Thomas going at 1.03 ahead of Docston and Boyd, and I was expecting to have an easy decision with Henry. That didn’t happen and I waffled between Boyd and Henry, but ultimately went with the player I feel will benefit most from the NFL Combine and a good scheme fit come the NFL Draft. Henry is starting to become undervalued and if he falls to 1.05 or lower, he becomes terrific value, especially if he lands in a power run scheme. He’ll be the highest riser/faller post-draft.
My thoughts:Henry is going to be one of the most polarizing players of this rookie draft class. There will be some who thinks he rivals Elliot for the top running back slot, and there will be others who will think he is just a bust waiting to happen. Those who like him will point out his monstrous physical size to go along with vision and patience as reasons he is going to be successful. While his detractors will point out his limitations, both in terms of scheme and skill set. What NFL team he ends up with could make all the difference for him.
1.06 – Sterling Shepard, WR Oklahoma
Kyle’s thoughts: Shepard is one of the best route runners in the class. He is crisp in and out of his breaks, and can run the entire route tree. He also possesses great hands and leaping ability. Shepard is on the smaller side, and isn’t as fast as you’d hope for a player of his stature. His size and lack of strength could hinder his ability to get off press coverage at the NFL level. Currently my No. four receiver in the class.
My thoughts: It is going to be very interesting to see what the next few weeks bring for Shepard. He seems more quick than fast, and when you combine that with his size, you instantly think of him as a slot receiver in the NFL. If that is true, it is going to hurt his fantasy draft stock quite a bit. However, if he ends up in a position where he could be playing outside, he could climb up draft boards and be a very intriguing option in the middle of the first round, because he definitely has talent.
1.07 – Corey Coleman, WR Baylor
Austan’s thoughts: I’m not as high on Coleman as others, but I’ll gladly take him in this spot. Perhaps no player’s stock rose as much as Coleman’s over the past 12 months. Being the top target in a high-octane offense like Baylor’s will lend itself to some gaudy stats, but Coleman racked up an are-you-serious 20 scores in 12 games in 2015, despite injuries forcing Baylor to cycle through quarterbacks like the Cleveland Browns. For reference, Laquon Treadwell reached the end zone 21 times in 35 career games. Coleman isn’t perfect — he’s a tad undersized (5-foot-11, 185 pounds) and sometimes struggles with press man coverage (like 99 percent of rookie wideouts) — but his athleticism and after-the-catch ability are off the charts. I fully expect him to shred the combine, and I don’t think he’ll be limited to the slot in the NFL.
My thoughts: If Coleman were a few inches taller and added about 25 pounds to his frame, we could be talking about him as rivaling Treadwell for the top receiver spot in this draft. His athleticism is off the charts and much like last year’s Tyler Lockett, he has the ability to play outside even though he is undersized. What Coleman lacks is polish on his skills. His route tree is very limited, and he needs to work on the finer points of playing the position. If he’s willing to put in the time, he should be able to fix those issues within a few years. I expect him to light up the combine and probably rise up draft boards. I think he’ll be a very strong contender for the third pick in rookie drafts.
1.08 – Tyler Boyd, WR Pittsburgh
George’s thoughts: Prior to 2015, Boyd was in the conversation for the top WR in this class and arguably the 1.01. With James Conner missing most of the season with a torn MCL, Boyd was used closer to the line of scrimmage (10.2 ypc vs 16.2 ypc in 2014). He has catch rates of 71%, 63%, and 71% over the last three years, never seeing less than 119 targets, 78 catches, 926 yards, or six touchdowns. Boyd also just turned 21 in November, making the accomplishments all the more impressive. Don’t let his 2015 role convince you that he can only run underneath routes. Others considered: Leonte Carroo, Will Fuller
My thoughts: As George mentioned, his last year at Pitt didn’t do Boyd any favors. He was a virtual lock to be a first round pick a year ago, but the quarterback issues have hurt his stock a bit. He is an explosive player, both off the line and when running his routes. He also shows natural hands and great body control, much like fellow Pitt receiver Larry Fitzgerald. Most of Boyd’s struggles are related to his relatively thin frame. He struggles to break tackles and could be limited by physical corners. An NFL weight lifting program should help fix that though. The larger concern for me is some minor off the field issues with a DUI in his background.
1.09 – De’Runnya Wilson, WR Mississippi State
Rob’s thoughts: This is likely higher than any would have taken him; however, I have always been a fan. His size is an obvious plus but he also moves with a natural fluidity and shows awesome body control at the catch point. His routes are sloppy and he can stand to add aggression to his game, but his weaknesses are mostly things you can teach and I am bullish on the long-term upside.
My thoughts: Wilson is a two sport athlete and converted basketball player. That means he has the size NFL teams crave, especially in the red zone. Like so many of the other converted basketball players, he has great body control and leaping ability. Where he is lacking is the speed and ability to make defenders miss. His route running is also rather suspect as Rob mentioned. There are some off the field concerns as well. Personally, I had Wilson as a late second, not late first round player, but there is some upside here.
1.10 – Leonte Carroo, WR Rutgers
Andrew’s thoughts: Sitting at the bottom of the first round, my eyes were on Carroo the entire time. This will be my target in all my rookie drafts in which I sit at the end of the first round. We all know his off-field troubles, but his upside is undeniable; and upside is what it is all about at this point in the draft.
My thoughts: Every year NFL teams and fantasy owners need to weigh the risk versus reward for some players. Last year Dorial Green-Beckham was a prime example of this. This year, Carroo is going to be one of the bigger questions. On the field, he has the athleticism, route running and hands you want from a future NFL receiver. The only complaint would be his height, but he is extremely well built for someone who might struggle to measure over six feet at the combine. Off the field, his domestic assault charge last fall, which lead to his suspension from the team. With the recent focus on domestic violence in the NFL, he is going to be put under the microscope by the league.
That’s it for the first round. Any surprises in these first ten? Who do you think will be the first few picks of the second round? We will be back soon with the second round.
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
