Weekly Twitter Observation
Each week I will be walking through the Twitterverse extracting some of the best commentary from trusted fantasy football minds. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis.
The State of Running Backs
Devonta Freeman led all RBs with 768 snaps in 2015. There were 40 WRs in the NFL who played more than 768 snaps.
— Michael David Smith (@MichaelDavSmith) January 22, 2016
I found the above tweet from Michael David Smith intriguing when thinking about running back usage. I was not surprised to see so many wide receivers with more snaps as top players rarely come out of the game. But what is the opportunity spread in terms of snaps between positions and how have the numbers trended of late? In 2015 only two running backs, Devonta Freeman and DeAngelo Williams, logged more than 700 snaps. The previous year both Matt Forte and Le’Veon Bell logged more than 900 offensive snaps and four other runners hit 700 plus. 2013 saw Forte hit the 900 plus mark again, two more running backs finished in the 800’s and a total of eight backs saw 700 plus offensive snaps. Finally in 2012 there were eight running backs with 800 plus snaps with a total of nine players accumulating more than 700. So, there is definitely a downward trend with players at the top in previous years being both strong runners and highly proficient in the passing game. This past season saw increased time shares, injuries to lit level players and teams choosing to use more defined roles than in previous seasons. There has been plenty of data in recent weeks looking at the truly awful season fantasy running backs put together in 2015. This is just another piece that confirms the running back position continues to be devalued by coaching staffs and why fantasy owners need to look to shore up their rosters elsewhere. Last season does offer the potential for an overreaction at the running back position providing increase value in the coming year, but overall it appears the position is becoming more volatile with fewer instances of high upside players. Melvin Gordon, RB SD The rookie season for Chargers running back Melvin Gordon is likely one fantasy owners would like to quickly forget. He managed to average only 3.5 yards per carry over the course of the season and as Jeff Miller noted he did not fare much better in the passing game.
32 NFL RBs caught 25 passes or more this year. Of them, Melvin Gordon ranked 30th in yards per catch at 5.82. — J3ff Miller (@FFJeffM) January 23, 2016
Gordon’s production as a receiver should not have come as much of a surprise seeing that before his senior season at Wisconsin he had only caught three passes in total. Even in his final year while logging 343 rushing attempts he managed to catch 19 balls. But what should we make out of his dismal running production? The yards per attempt was low, the fumbles were a problem and for a guy that found the end zone 32 times the year prior with the Badgers he was downright allergic to scoring touchdowns failing to score six even once. [inlinead]Some of the blame is clearly on Gordon but he also was dealing with one of the shakiest offensive lines that saw multiple injuries to starters throughout the year. There also remained no continuity from week to week likely leading to struggles anticipating which running lanes would be open and which ones would be filled with oncoming defenders. Defenses were also able to key in on the running game more as Philip Rivers lost about every imaginable receiving threat the team could provide. As the year wore on Melvin often times was dancing too much and sometimes completely running away from the designed play leading to numerous attempts of loss yardage or no gain. The combination of all of these factors has led to Gordon sliding down the dynasty ranks heading in to the offseason. When thinking about his relative value and whether to have any hope for the future I did come across one tweet that would ask owners not to “bail” just yet.
Yeldon was better than Melvin Gordon, sure, but Im not bailing on Melvin, while banking on Yeldon progressing into RB1 status. — Kevin (@the_FF_engineer) January 24, 2016
T.J. Yeldon gained a lot of value after his rookie campaign and while he did put up around 100 more yards on essentially the same carries as Gordon, he only was able to score twice and his output in the passing game was nothing to write home about save for a couple games. The positives that I still see in Gordon in terms of fantasy are that the Chargers offensive line cannot be worse than it was in 2015. The return of offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt should lead to better schemes and production. In 2013 Ryan Mathews flourished and Whisenhunt definitely looks to get the ball out quicker helping the offensive line as well. Gordon’s rookie year also will likely serve as motivation to bounce back and even he acknowledged as much recently. So between a down year at the running back position in general and a rookie runner that offered little to no weekly value there could easily be owners looking to dump him for little in return. Jordan Reed, TE WAS One player who I feel may be overvalued heading into the offseason is Washington’s Jordan Reed. Tweets like the one from JJ Zachariason only help they hype because when any player outperforms Gronk you know he was doing something right.
Excluding Week 17, Gronk had 12 top-12 performances this year (PPR). Jordan Reed had 10. But Reed had one more (9) top-6 performance. — JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) January 27, 2016
Reed’s talent was fully on display in 2015 particularly down the stretch as the Redskins were making a push for a divisional crown. Unfortunately for Reed injuries, not talent, have been the main question regarding his game. Jordan suffered a couple concussions while in college and in his rookie season was placed on the IR after accumulating a couple more brutal shots. The 2014 season saw him dealing with hamstring injuries that caused him to miss another five games. In addition to the injuries, Reed was not even slated to be the starter in Washington this year. Niles Paul won the job as he was more well-rounded, particularly in the blocking department where Jordan under-performs. Paul’s return in 2016 may lead to less playing time for Reed but you also would assume the team would find a way to work him in more at receiver. He should remain a key component to the offense and offers more upside than players like Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz, but there still remain risks to his availability. The tight end position continues to offer more and more depth each year and I still value Tyler Eifert and Greg Olsen above him long term. Michael Floyd, WR ARI The Cardinals’ wide receiver Michael Floyd has always been a player I have been higher on in fantasy. His sophomore campaign saw him cross the 1,000 yard mark and during the offseason heading into this third season the news from the team and reporters was that Floyd was poised to become the number one receiver for the team. That obviously did not materialize as Michael was relegated to be more of deep threat and Carson Palmer was lost for most of the season. The train wreck of backup quarterbacks led to dismal stats for the entire offense and Floyd’s value took a hit. Then coming into his fourth year the team showed faith in him by extending his contract and picking up the option for the fifth season. Unfortunately Floyd dislocated his fingers and missed most training camp and preseason. Even at the start of the year while he was seeing the field, he clearly was not being utilized within the offense. After starting to get up to speed in the middle of the year and posting back to back 100-plus-yard efforts and logging a touchdown in four consecutive games, Michael dealt with a hamstring injury that caused him to essentially miss two more games. He finished the year strong though logging nearly six catches and 100 yards per game between weeks 13 and 16. Chris Wesseling recently shared comments from head coach Bruce Arians on Michael’s game:
Arians on Michael Floyd: “If he wouldn’t have broke his hand, I think he would have had a 1,500-yard season.” — Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling) January 20, 2016
That sounds more like the receiver fantasy owners have been hoping for and I fully believe him to have that potential. There is a little bit of concern that the Cardinals could choose to simply cut Floyd during the offseason and avoid paying him over $7 million in 2016. I would be surprised to see this move and would expect the Cardinals to try and sign the receiver to another extension. When on the field and playing healthy he has shown his top end ability. Larry Fitzgerald may only be with the team one more season and if Floyd remains healthy he should be a lock for 1,000 yards for years to come. Antonio Brown, WR PIT When looking at the elite wide receivers in fantasy you normally are splitting hairs on which one is the best overall. For me the answer still remains Pittsburgh’s own Antonio Brown. John Paulsen shared some stats this week highlighting how good he truly has been, particularly in PPR formats.
In the 11 games last year in which Ben Roethlisberger attempted at least 25 passes, Antonio Brown averaged 9.8-136-.91. (1 of 2) — John Paulsen (@4for4_John) January 26, 2016
That translates to 157-2,176-14.6 over 16 games. Antonio Brown will be my no-brainer #1 overall pick (PPR) once again in 2016. (2 of 2) — John Paulsen (@4for4_John) January 26, 2016
I know some may have found his struggles without Ben Roethlisberger this season to be concerning. Brown’s numbers definitely nose-dived when Landry Jones and Michael Vick were under center. But I would ask how do you think Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones would have fared with Ryan Nassib or Sean Renfree throwing passes their respective ways? (To be honest I even had to look up who the Falcons backup quarterback was). Again you can make the case one way or another, but I am still putting my money on 84. [ad5]
Luke practically owns the Twitter machine at @FFGator
- Weekly Twitter Observations - April 2, 2016
- Weekly Twitter Observations - March 26, 2016
- Weekly Twitter Observations - March 11, 2016
