SRVPR: Green Bay Packers

Benton McDonald Posted On January 30, 2016

rodgers Let’s face it. Aaron Rodgers had the worst year of his career in 2015. Albeit this meant a 10-6 record and a mid-tier QB1 in fantasy scoring, this was not the same Rodgers that won the league’s MVP trophy just last year. A number of factors culminated into a situation in which many quarterbacks would struggle to succeed, much less post 31 touchdowns, 3800 yards, and a playoff victory; but we cannot hold Rodgers to the standard of other quarterbacks. The future Hall of Famer set career lows in yards, completion percentage, adjusted yards gained per attempt (AY/A) and quarterback rating, while also setting a career high in pass attempts (Courtesy Pro Football Reference). The two units primarily responsible for a quarterback’s success; his wide receivers and his offensive line, were the major proponents of Rodgers struggles in 2015 and I detailed each groups outlying factors for mediocrity below:

The Wide Receivers:

The loss of Jordy Nelson, paired with the continued failure of Davante Adams to succeed in a larger role and a surprisingly mediocre season from Randall Cobb contributed greatly to Rodgers inefficiency this season. Rodgers has long profited off of his receiver’s abilities to get open, and while you could say this about any quarterback, he has admittedly been spoiled. Whether it be Nelson, Cobb, James Jones, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, or even Jeff Janis, Green Bay receivers have always excelled at getting separation and allowing Rodgers to work his magic. The loss of Nelson was truly a nail in the coffin for the Packers’ season, and his ability to open up the field for this offense in every sense of the word was sorely missed by Rodgers and Co. And while some will point to the surprise production from Jones, who converted catches into touchdowns on 16 percent of his receptions, it’s important to keep in mind he only finished with 50 receptions on 99 targets. Richard Rodgers also had a season elevated by his eight touchdowns, as he only managed 58 catches for 510 catches otherwise. Add in a hugely disappointing third year campaign for Eddie Lacy and you have a supporting cast for Rodgers that has suddenly gone from one of the best in the league to easily the most disappointing and mediocre of 2015. However, we’ve seen elite quarterbacks get away with offensive mediocrity (See: Brady, Tom) but it was the offensive line play that truly washed away the Packers hopes at a Super Bowl 50 victory.

The Offensive Line:

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Injuries, lack of continuity, failure to communicate: these are the issues that can plague any offensive line. The Packers, unfortunately, saw all three of these in 2015. First and foremost are the injuries, all five starters from this close-knit group battled injuries throughout the season, with only one, Josh Sitton, managing to play in all 16 games. Compare this to a group that collectively saw one starter miss one game in 2014, and you have a line reeling for needed continuity. Before we dive deeper into the offensive line issues, I want to show you the Packers SRVPR data. I charted eight games and came away pretty unimpressed with what I saw:

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As expected, Green Bay was clearly worse than Arizona (whose data you can find here) and shone light on the problems an ineffective offensive line can have on the offense as a whole. The biggest takeaway I had, and one that should be noted whenever evaluating offensive lines, is that despite how good one or two players may be, the unit is only as strong as their weakest link. Green Bays guard combo of Josh Sitton and TJ Lang is arguably one of the best in the league, yet the injury-riddled line only saw one game with their pass protection success protection higher than 65 percent. Backup guard Don Barclay was abysmal in five spot starts at various positions to plug holes left by injury and the loss of stud sophomore center Corey Linsley for three games to injury really left the line in a flux. The player I had the most issue with on film was right tackle David Bakhtiari, who was constantly getting bullied by the seemingly endless pool of above average edge rushers the NFL has to offer. But despite all the injuries and inability to sustain chemistry week to week, the line still flashed the skills that made it one of the best in the league in 2014. As mentioned, the guard combo coupled with Linsley created quite possibly the best interior group in football, they just couldn’t find the field at the same time. If those three along with Bryan Bulaga and Bakhtiari can stay healthy in 2016, as they did in 2014, we are looking at one of the better lines in football next season. But the ineffectiveness they showed at many times this season cannot be ignored; which, at the height of their injury woes, forced the coaching staff to game plan an offense that was incredibly rudimentary in its passing game, as they simply couldn’t trust their line to hold a pocket. The reliance on quick passes and the running game rid the Packers of their biggest asset: Mr. Rodgers.

Summary:

The inability of the line to hold an elongated pocket coupled with the receivers struggle to consistently get open made quarterbacking rather tough for Aaron Rodgers this year. Couple this with the running game troubles and the drama surrounding coach Mike McCarthy and his ‘on-again, off-again’ play calling duties and you have an offense that never truly reached it full potential in 2015. In fact, they never even came close. However, there is much reason for optimism next season in the land of cheese. All five starting lineman are returning along with Jordy Nelson and any incoming rookies or free agent pass catchers, which GM Ted Thompson will surely look to address in the spring. Rodgers is still Rodgers, Randall Cobb will assumingly return to his comfort zone as the second fiddle in the passing game and a healthy Nelson will open the field, and the playbook, for this off-season. As Rodgers once famously said, R-E-L-A-X. Green Bay fans and concerned dynasty owners alike, R-E-L-A-X.

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