The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter Posted On January 25, 2016

dlfmailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

*Editor’s Note – For total team evaluations, please be sure to use the DLF Newsletter Team Advice Form!*

In my 12-man, non-PPR contract league I can only keep one of these three players next year: Brock Osweiler, Willie Snead or Ryan Mathews. Thoughts? – Brian in Canada

Right off the bat I think this list can be trimmed from three to two fairly quickly. Former (and possibly not future) Denver starting quarterback Brock Osweiler is the definition of mediocre, from both a fantasy and real-life sense, and is truthfully a fringe bench player in a 12-man, 1QB league. You could, and should, aim higher at the position.

Ryan Mathews is decidedly more interesting, after he arguably functioned as the Eagles’ best running back in 2015. Now I understand that wasn’t saying too much, given the almost comical use of free agent flop DeMarco Murray by “genius” Chip Kelly, but it’s notable that Mathews had a decent year despite the wholesale offensive ineptitude. Moreover, he managed seven total touchdowns on only 119 touches, boosting his stock in a non-PPR format.

However, the elephant in the room remains in the form of the aforementioned Murray. He’s still due a guaranteed $9 million on his massive contract, including all of his 2016 base salary – no, he wasn’t statistically proficient this past season, but Philly is going to have to pay next season regardless. Why wouldn’t they keep him around and see if he can recapture his previous form in a normal, power-running offense? Adding in Mathews’ injury woes (2015 represented his fifth season with missed games, out of a possible six), I think you can aim higher still.

All told, this should result in the targeting of Saints receiver Willie Snead. Though the non-PPR format doesn’t inherently favor receivers, it’s impossible to ignore what the “second-year” (first on an active roster) player accomplished – he fell just 16 yards away from 1,000, and actually topped his ballyhooed teammate Brandin Cooks in YPC (14.3) and YPT (9.6). While he didn’t score the ball much with just three touchdowns, such things remain prone to regression, especially after Snead corralled 15 scores as a senior in college.

So since we’re talking about three guys whom you’re considering for their ceiling, I’d take Snead as the clear winner. He had a great “rookie” year, and seems to have quarterback Drew Brees’ trust. I expect him to afford starter-quality viability moving forward, which I don’t think could be said for your other options.

How should the volatility of the 2015 running backs alter our plans for 2016? Should I keep 6-7 receivers and 2-3 running backs and plan to grab running backs as they pop? Or should I keep 4-5 receivers and 4-5 running backs to increase likelihood of running back success? – Aaron in NY

Quite simply, I think you should keep the best players. Yes, the 2015 running back landscape was absolute carnage, with arguably only four of the preseason PPR RB1s (Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Lamar Miller and Mark Ingram) finishing as such. However, this doesn’t apply any sort of predictive measure moving forward into next season.

Given you’ll have a dispersal draft anyhow in order to supplement the backside of your roster, I don’t think you need to “position-heavy” just to fit a predetermined strategy. As alluded to above, your league isn’t a true dynasty as is, giving you more flexibility to adjust your team with the remaining player pool. It also mitigates the need to utilize a multi-year, team-building strategy. [inlinead]

Long story short, you have a subset of your roster that is likely to score you the most points over the next one-three years. These players likely have a little bit more in the way of job security as well. Keep those guys, and let the rest of the cards fall as they may – despite what happened this past season.

I have just completed my first season on the RealitySportsOnline platform in a 10-team, half-PPR league and need to make a decision about to tag or not to tag players for next season. We have a 25-man roster and the core of my team for next year is Drew Brees, Todd Gurley, Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, David Cobb, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Jarvis Landry and Tyler Lockett. I also have the option to tag Allen Robinson at top-five receiver money. My cap situation isn’t great and if I keep Robinson it would leave me having to fill the rest of my team with minimum wage free agents. Is it worth risking it on A-Rob and maybe moving one of my other pieces to increase my cap space, or should I try to trade his tagging rights to someone else for a lower player or a draft pick? – Nick in Canada

As readers of this site surely know by now, I’m a big fan of Jaguars receiver Allen Robinson. I believe he checks all the boxes you’re looking for in a dynasty receiver – he’s big, fast, young, and has already proven legitimate WR1 ability. All told, there’s very little bad to say about the up-and-coming third year player.

In your situation, however, there appears to be one major drawback to rostering Mr. Robinson – money! The RSO format is certainly not kind to those wishing to apply the franchise tag in order to hang onto a player, and $24 million is an absolutely massive cap hit for any player. Adding in the fact that this tidy some would only be spent on a single year of production, and the plot thickens with red flags.

Yes, you could use Robinson on your team, as he would assuredly slide in as your WR2, at worst. With that said, Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant are both already top-end assets, and Jarvis Landry (despite the borderline hysterical downplaying and ridicule of his two-year success by many) is a fantastic WR3. Even Seattle freshman Tyler Lockett has shown enough to believe he could slide in as a FLEX-level player in a pinch.

So in this one, very specific, unusual instance, I’d suggest you either trade A-Rob’s rights for a cheaper player (or draft pick), or throw him back into the pool and do what needs to be done to snag him on a multi-year contract. This way, you’ll either get something in return for him, or get a chance to acquire his services for more than just a one-year window. It’s always unbearably tough to advise against owning perhaps my favorite player in the NFL, but I think you need to consider alternative options in this scenario.

In our league we can keep up to eight players. For my last two, I need to decide between Melvin Gordon, Doug Baldwin, Delanie Walker, and Dorial Green-Beckham. Given the system we have, trading before committing to keepers is rare as the sacrifice for trading a player is not only what you give up, but the loss of the pick to keep that player. I may have a chance to make trades for picks and/or upgrades after my eight are set. I would appreciate your thoughts on my last two options, and which of my players I should consider trading up for earlier picks after keepers are set. – Ken in NY

This is certainly an interesting dilemma, as the two players who will probably score you the most points next season (Doug Baldwin and Delanie Walker) arguably carry the least amount of dynasty and trade value. It’s nothing against them, but there are deservedly trust issues against the former (why did it take him so long to break out, and can he repeat his touchdown binge?), and age discrimination against the latter (he’ll be 32 before the season starts). Nevertheless, we’re talking about 2015’s half-PPR WR9 and TE4 – if your goal is to win again this year, this is the pair that will likely help you the most.

This, of course, means that you’ll be pushing sophomores Dorial Green-Beckham and Melvin Gordon off the the figurative scrap heap. Obviously this is a less than tenable option, since as young, highly drafted players, they remain insulated from their respectively pedestrian rookie seasons. And even though this isn’t a traditional dynasty league, it’s never prudent to push away talented young options that could potentially anchor your team for years to come.

On the flip side, these are definitively the two players who could fetch you the most on the trade market. DGB flashed enough that, in the eyes of many, he could be a future WR1. Gordon, while underwhelming in 2015, still carries with him the appeal of a likely 2016 bell-cow in what should be a healthy and improved offense. Even if the numbers weren’t there last year, the underlying belief is it’s no strong indictment on what they could do moving forward.

So ultimately you have three options – you could likely maximize both your point-scoring ability and tradeability by hanging onto the veterans. You could also build for the future by hanging onto your sophomore and trusting you’ll nail the dispersal draft. This, of course, would likely minimize your ability to move upward in the draft.

All told I think the final option, the one where you straddle the fence between present and future, works the best. As such, I’d advise you to hang onto Green-Beckham and Walker, ensuring you still have a top-end TE1, as well as an exciting young receiver prospect. You’ll also have the trade value of Gordon, and whatever Baldwin can get you on top of that, along with ridding yourself of the downside that the running back doesn’t improve, and the receiver stops scoring the ball. It’s certainly not a fool-proof endeavor, but should be the one where you maximize both your team’s value and winning potential moving forward.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.