2015 Rookie Re-Draft: Round One

Jacob Feldman

lockettThe 2015 fantasy season is in the books, which means some owners are sitting back and binge watching their favorite show. While that might be enjoyable, it isn’t going to help them win the title next year. The smart owners are spending some time looking at current player values and trying to figure out where the deals are. Who are the players who are overvalued, and who are the ones on the other end of the spectrum? Those lists are often dominated by young players, especially rookies.

In order to help you get a feel for the current value of last year’s crop, I joined eleven other writers and conducted a redraft of the 2015 rookie class. The rules were simple. Draft the player you feel is the best available for a team with no glaring holes. We assumed PPR scoring and a normal starting lineup (not superflex or 2QB). We went three rounds deep, and each writer was asked to supply some thoughts on the player they drafted. To give an extra perspective, I’ll also be commenting on each pick. Hopefully the pair of perspectives will help you with your own evaluations of the 2015 class, and you’ll be able to use the market to your advantage this off-season.

Without any more preludes, it is time to take a look at the first round.

1.01 – Amari Cooper, WR OAK

Typical draft range last year – Top 2 pick

Bruce’s thoughts – He is the top player on my board. He had a very productive rookie season, finishing twenty-second in the league in PPR scoring with 213.45 points. I think he has plenty of upside – he had four games where he scored 20 or more fantasy points. What sold me even more on Cooper, was how he responded to being assaulted by Adam Jones during week one. Jones ripped off Cooper’s helmet and slammed his head to the ground. Cooper didn’t feed into Jones’ antics and jogged straight back to the huddle. I love his professionalism, and I know I don’t have to worry about him getting arrested or suspended over something foolish. He’s only 21 years old and he’s going to be a solid fantasy asset for a very long time. He’s a very safe play. My second choice for this pick is Todd Gurley. I think he’s a generational talent and I like him almost as much as Cooper.

My thoughts – I’ve felt this was the easy pick at 1.01 since this time last year, and I still believe that. In fact, Cooper was even better as a rookie than I expected. There were times he did look like a rookie, such as his week 14 clunker which bounced me from the playoffs in one league, but most of the year he looked mature beyond his years. That’s huge when you consider what Bruce mentioned about his age. Cooper is going to get better and is already knocking on the door for my top five receivers. He is definitely the top player from this draft class in my mind.

1.02 – Todd Gurley, RB STL/LAgurley

Typical draft range last year – Top 2 pick

Izzy’s thoughts – This pick was pretty straight forward. This is the first time since the Julio Jones/AJ Green draft that the top two picks from the preseason held court all season. I prefer Cooper and his frustrating case of butterfingers over the potential transcendence Gurley possesses, but I’m very partial to avoiding running backs in a dynasty format. That all said, Gurley is a very trustworthy player long-term unless injuries sap his career. Outside of the knee injury, Gurley doesn’t carry much injury risk moving forward so I’d be very comfortable with him on my team despite my hatred for the position.

My thoughts – There was really only one option at this spot in the draft. After Cooper and Gurley, there was a drop off. That isn’t to say the rest of the class is bad, they just aren’t at this level. There are always going to be questions with running backs, and Gurley playing for the Rams is a little concerning, but he’s the clear second choice. I’m still not fully convinced he’s a hall of famer like some others are, but I do think there are multiple pro bowls in his future. It would be nice to see him get a bit more involved in the passing game, but I’m really splitting hairs to come up with a flaw. He’s about as good as a rookie running back can be.

1.03 – DeVante Parker, WR MIA

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Typical draft range last year – Early first

Adam’s thoughts – Being at the third spot I know I had the hardest pick of the entire draft. The first two were ‘give mes’, but at this spot, anything could fly. I decided to stick with my gut and go with Parker. He profiles as a true WR1 for a team at 6’3 and 218 pounds. After missing eight games with an injury, he posted two very nice games to close out the season and he was able to showcase the talent his first round draft pick commands. Now, he is climbing up draft boards and has easily surpassed a 1.03 rookie valuation for many owners. This is a player that will make huge impacts on the 2016 season and is easily still worth the cost of acquisition. I also considered Kevin White, David Johnson and Dorial Green-Beckham.

My thoughts – Parker would have been my choice for the third slot as well, and I actually think the choice would have been easier than Adam mentioned. Parker started the season slow, but that was to be expected from someone who had off-season surgery and missed the majority of training camp. Towards the end of the season he was starting to earn his role and showing his talent. He definitely has room for his game to grow, but I don’t think it will take long for him to turn into a legitimate top target in the NFL. He’ll give the Dolphins a legitimate one-two combo at the receiver position. Now the question is if they actually have a franchise quarterback or not.

1.04 – TJ Yeldon, RB JAC

Typical draft range last year – Middle to late first

My thoughts – I struggled a bit with this pick. I was really hoping Adam would take someone other than Parker, but I think he’s ahead of any of the other players available at this point. At this point, I feel the next tier is made up of a trio of running backs, Yeldon, David Johnson and Jeremy Langford. I think all of the wide receivers available at this point have major question marks about them. As for the trio I mentioned, I think Yeldon has the fewest questions about his role going forward, and the Jacksonville offense is a unit trending up.

Before I get into Yeldon, let me start by saying I don’t think he will ever be a pro bowl player at his position. He’s one of those who is very good at a lot of things, but he lacks that special characteristic needed for a running back to really stand out. He is good at pretty much all aspects of his game, but not great at any of them. This makes him a solid all around back. He catches the ball well, his 4.1 yards per carry are definitely respectable as a rookie, and he performed best when he had 15 plus carries in a game. As the Jaguars improve, that should become a more common occurrence, making him a high floor player in PPR leagues. I don’t think his ceiling is terribly high, but he should be a consistent back end RB1 or high end RB2 for several years.

1.05 – Dorial Green-Beckham, WR TEN

Typical draft range last year – Middle to late first

Brian’s thoughts – I considered David Johnson at this spot but I really liked the progress that DGB made as the season progressed. An off-season to work with Marcus Mariota should mean more production next season. DGB showed he was more than just a red zone threat. His raw ability and rare size/speed combination is the type of ceiling that I want in an early draft pick. I am looking forward to watching him progress as a player in 2016.

My thoughts – In the interest of full disclosure, I never through DGB was as good or had the ceiling some others seem to think he has. He has the size you can’t teach, but I question his desire to improve himself. His route running needs a lot of work, and I didn’t really see much progression in that area during his rookie year. The good news is he is going to get playing time because the Titans really don’t have anyone else. He has a long way to go on the field and a great young quarterback to grow with. I also worry about the off the field issues coming back. There’s a ton of risk here, but the rewards could be there as well.

1.06 – David Johnson, RB ARI

Typical draft range last year – Middle to late second

Scott’s thoughts – I was pleased that Johnson was available at 1.06. He has a clear path to starting on a competitive team. Andre Ellington can’t stay healthy, and Chris Johnson isn’t a long-term threat to touches. David Johnson finished as the RB12 in PPR leagues despite not getting meaningful touches until week 13. I think he has tremendous upside and I would be glad to get him at this spot. If Johnson were gone, I’d have picked Kevin White. The Bears invested significant draft capital in White, so he will get a shot. No way the Bears let Alshon Jeffery leave in free agency, so that should give White coverage advantages. I think White has tremendous upside, if he can translate his natural skills to the NFL level.

My thoughts – One of the biggest risers during the season, the Cardinals’ playoff run will only help out his stock. He didn’t earn the starting role until late in the season, and it was largely due to injury. His 29 carry, 187 yard and three touchdown rushing game against the Eagles in week 15 really made people take notice. Possibly too much notice. Johnson has struggled between the tackles from time to time, and it is far from certain he will be the bell cow for the Cardinals next year. After all, the Cardinals made a point to give a 30 year old Chris Johnson the starting role over David this year. He has some potential, especially in the passing game, but his future is far from certain. I think the market price on him will be too high this summer given the risk.

1.07 – Breshad Perriman, WR BAL

Typical draft range last year – Middle to late first

Trevor’s thoughts – I’ve long been a fan of the confluence of athleticism and opportunity, and Perriman has both in spades. Many are likely moving him down their boards but he has stayed relatively even for me. Steve Smith coming back for another year to mentor him only makes me like him all the more, as does Joe Flacco’s pretty deep ball pairing with Perriman’s speed. My only real concerns are that he appears to have issues getting over injuries and that he lost a year of polish he could have had. I also considered Jameis Winston here.

My thoughts – It is interesting to me that Perriman went before White in this draft. Both players missed the entire season due to injury, and White was the higher drafted player, both in the NFL and in rookie drafts. So I’m not sure why Perriman went right about where he did a few months ago and White is still on the board. Perriman is super raw and him missing the entire year isn’t going to help him. He has a long way to go towards being relevant, and I personally have him outside of my top ten rookies at this point in time. Maybe even outside the top 15.

1.08 – Tyler Lockett, WR SEA

Typical draft range last year – Late second to early third

Matt’s thoughts – At 5’10 and 182 pounds, Lockett isn’t your typical first round wide receiver, but what he lacks in size he makes up for with savvy route running and versatility. Lockett showed us what he could do in the return game in the preseason with multiple return touchdowns. Slowly but surely the Seahawks have integrated him into the offense as a receiver as well. Seattle gave up their third, fourth, fifth, and sixth round picks to move up and acquire Lockett at 3.05. They wouldn’t give up that much draft capital if they didn’t have big plans for him. Tyler Lockett has the talent and situation to be the second best wide receiver in this class after Amari Cooper. My second choice was Kevin White.

My thoughts – Coming out of college, I was one of those people who expected Lockett to be a special return man but would have a marginal influence on the passing game, kind of like Devin Hester. I envisioned him as a slightly worse returner than Hester but a slightly better receiver. After his rookie season, I might need to amend my original take a bit. Lockett might actually be a viable NFL receiver. He has a ton of talent, but I worried about how it would translate. I think Matt might be a bit too optimistic when he said he could be the second best receiver in this draft class. I don’t think he’ll ever reach top 20 receiver status in fantasy leagues, but he could be a solid WR3.

1.09 – Kevin White, WR CHI

Typical draft range last year – Early first

Nathan’s thoughts – Injuries ended Kevin White’s rookie campaign before it started, and I think grabbing him at 1.09 is some really solid value. White was being drafted in the 1.03-1.05 range during rookie draft and other than the late season emergence of David Johnson and the flashes we’ve seen from Green-Beckham and Parker, I don’t see why White should be any lower. White will be a 24 year old de facto rookie, but he has the height, weight, speed and draft capital that I’m looking for in a receiver. If White had been gone at my pick, I would’ve gone with Melvin Gordon.

My thoughts – Like Nathan, I’m a little surprised White lasted this long. For me, little has changed from my original evaluation. The play of a few others might have made them leap over him, but he’s still in my top six rookies at this point in time. The interesting part for him will be what Chicago does this off-season. How will they replace Adam Gase? What happens with Alshon Jeffery? What about Jay Cutler? All of these will have a big impact on White’s ceiling, but if you felt he was an early first round pick last year, he shouldn’t be much lower than that now. He’s going to be a great buy low option this summer.

langford-21.10 – Jeremy Langford, RB CHI

Typical draft range last year – Early to middle third

Eric’s thoughts – This was a tough call for me. I couldn’t decide between Stefon Diggs and Langford. Ultimately it came down to two things. One, I’m tired of chasing “last year’s Vikings WR1”. Two years ago it was supposed to be Cordarrelle Patterson and this year it was supposed to be Charles Johnson. Is that fair to Diggs? Nope, but it was enough for me to go with Langford. With Matt Forte expected to move on in free agency, Langford is poised to be the man in Chicago. He performed well when Forte missed time while hurt this year and with the state of fantasy running backs I wanted Langford. I feel like I’ll be able to find a player comparable to Diggs in free agency or maybe later in the draft.

My thoughts – Maybe it is a bit of my hometown bias, but I had Langford pegged as going much earlier in this mock. As I mentioned, I did give him some thought at the fourth pick in this draft. Langford did show some flashes this season of what he might be able to do as a feature back. He was able to handle goal line work and played fairly well in the passing game. What was lacking from Langford’s game was the big play. Even though he had almost 150 carries, only one of them went for more than 20 yards. He fared slightly better in the passing game, but considering he was the fastest running back at the combine I was hoping for a little more in the explosive play department. That might come with time, and he seems poised to be the guy in Chicago, possibly as soon as next year.

1.11 – Stefon Diggs, WR MIN

Typical draft range last year – Late third or later

Karl’s thoughts – At one point in the season, people were considering Diggs the third best rookie in dynasty, and for good reason. Diggs burst onto the scene in week four, recording six receptions for 87 yards in his first professional outing. Through week eight of the season, Diggs was the WR8 in PPR PPG. We’ve seen what he can do with ample opportunity, and in the future, the Vikings will have to consider throwing more as Adrian Peterson ages and Teddy Bridgewater matures as a player. I considered Thomas Rawls or one of the two quarterbacks with the next pick, but the wide receiver position is too valuable to look away from.

My thoughts – The Diggs we saw over his first four games of the season was the Diggs people waited for years to see in Maryland. There was a reason he was a five star college recruit. Unfortunately, he never put it together in college due to a mix of injury and lack of effort. Those four weeks showed us what he could be. Now the question is if he actually can be that on a consistent basis. Roughly half of his stats came from that brief period, meaning he really faded down the stretch. It is possible he just took NFL defenses by surprise and they finally caught on. I think it is much more likely that this is just the kind of player Diggs will be in the NFL with Bridgewater as his quarterback. He’s going to catch the majority of his passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Sometimes he’ll break one for a big gain. If he doesn’t, you’re going to have a lot of 3-4 catch for 30-40 yard games.

1.12 – Thomas Rawls, RB SEA

Typical draft range last year – Fourth round or later

Austan’s thoughts – I was pretty pleased to have Rawls available here. I have Rawls as my No. 2 rookie running back. I love what he did this year. He runs angry, is a good receiver and should be the 2016 lead back in a good offense. Marshawn Lynch is likely gone after this season. I don’t see how Seattle could pay Lynch $9 million next year when Rawls, who is owed just $525,000, severely outplayed him. I also considered Ameer Abdullah, Melvin Gordon and Tevin Coleman, all of whom I think are in store for better seasons next fall.

My thoughts – I don’t think the whole issue of Lynch and Rawls is quite as simple as salary. Lynch is the heart and soul of the Seahawks. I don’t think he leaves the team unless it is his own choice. If he does leave, the question becomes if Rawls has done enough to lock down the starting role. The slightly bigger question is what will that role look like in future years. Towards the end of the season, I think we saw an evolution of the Seahawks offense. The offense now flows through Russell Wilson instead of the running back. This could devalue the position a bit for the team. Mix in the uncertainty of Rawls’ health (just ask Ben Tate owners about broken ankles), and he carries a bit more risk than some realize.

That’s it for round one. Check back soon for the second round of our look back at the 2015 class!

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jacob feldman