One of the most polarizing NFL Head Coaches in recent memory has found a home in the city by the bay in California. 3 years ago, Chip Kelly joined the Philadelphia Eagles as one of the hottest names on the coaching market after a 46-7 record in four seasons at the University of Oregon. During his time in Philadelphia, Kelly had a reputation of jettisoning quality skill position players with the release of DeSean Jackson in 2014, as well as letting Jeremy Maclin walk in free agency and the trade of LeSean McCoy to the Buffalo Bills in 2015. Just a few weeks after a 6-9 record in his third season put Kelly back on the coaching market, he was hired as the head coach of the San Francisco 49ers, succeeding Jim Tomsula who went 5-11 in his only season as head coach. So, what will the arrival of Kelly mean for the 49ers players from a dynasty perspective? Let’s take a look.
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
Quarterback
Coming into the NFL, Chip Kelly was hyped as an offensive guru, particularly for his success with using quarterbacks in his system. In Kelly’s first season, his offense had tremendous success with Nick Foles at the helm as he threw for 27 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in only 10 starts. In the following season, Foles struggled in the offense and was traded to the Rams last offseason. In 2015, Sam Bradford had a few flashes throughout the season, but struggled to find any form of consistency. As polarizing as Kelly has been at head coach, Kaepernick has been equally polarizing under center. Kaepernick took over for Alex Smith midseason in 2012 and was looking like one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. After 2 and a half up-and-down seasons, Kaepernick was benched in 2015 in favor of Blaine Gabbert. Now, in 2016, Kaepernick has a chance to be the first real mobile quarterback to play in the Kelly system in the NFL. The hiring of Kelly looks like a vote of confidence from the organization to Kaepernick, however, the 49ers have the option to get out from under the seven-year, $126.97 million contract that they signed him to in 2014. If Kaepernick is kept through the offseason, Kaepernick dynasty stock definitely increases, but the system won’t be able score the fantasy points for him, the real question for Kaepernick and dynasty owners is if he can return to 2012 form where he had 15 total touchdowns and 3 interceptions during the 49ers playoff run.
Blaine Gabbert
Blaine Gabbert doesn’t have much dynasty value, and I don’t expect Chip Kelly and the 49ers to use Gabbert even if the 49ers decide to part ways with Colin Kaepernick. Gabbert has all but cemented his role as a viable long term backup quarterback in the NFL, nothing more or less, also known as the best job ever. But nothing to see here from a dynasty perspective.
Running backs
After quarterback, the second-most discussed position in the Kelly offense is the running back. During Kelly’s first two years with Philadelphia, he had one of the best young backs in the NFL in LeSean McCoy. In two years with Kelly, McCoy ran for 2,916 rushing yards and 694 receiving yards with 16 total touchdowns. After trading McCoy to the Bills, the Eagles signed free agent DeMarco Murray and unfortunately for Kelly, similar results were not produced as Murray ran for only 632 yards in 14 games. Hyde is the clear RB1 for the 49ers as Kelly comes in, and it will be interesting to see how Hyde is used in the Kelly offense. Hyde showed flashes of RB1 potential early in the 2015 season with a 168 yard 2 touchdown performance in week 1 against a solid Minnesota Vikings defense. Will Hyde be more McCoy or Murray? I don’t think he is either and I don’t think Kelly has had a running back like Hyde in terms of style at the pro level, so it is a question of how Hyde will adapt to the Kelly offense. Kelly was a boom/bust hire for the 49ers and I expect this to be a boom/bust situation for Hyde, and one of the most important things is the 49ers need to return to being a competitive football team, because early deficits ruined any shot at seeing a full workload from the young running back Hyde.
Wide receivers and Tight Ends
One of the keys to the Kelly offense in 2016 will be getting better offensive weapons for Kaepernick than Torrey Smith and Vance McDonald. I expect Kelly to try and develop 2015 rookie tight end Blake Bell, who as a converted quarterback seems like the type of player that Kelly should be able to get creative and use him in an effective way. At wide receiver, Smith had the worst season of his career with 33 catches for 663 yards and four touchdowns. I’m a Torrey Smith fan, so I’m a bit optimistic with what he can do in the Kelly offense, but it is clear the 49ers are in need of a No. 1 wide receiver. Anquan Boldin is scheduled to be a free agent, I wouldn’t be surprised if re-signs on a cheap 1 year deal or he may just retire, either way, I don’t think he has much value in dynasty fantasy football right now, and he doesn’t really affect anyone else’s value either. Bruce Ellington and Quinton Patton are both young wide receivers that have done little to nothing in their NFL careers, and there isn’t much promise for the future. Both are end of roster players in deeper leagues, but they should be on most waiver wires. If you think Kelly will be able to better use either of their talents, I think now would be a good time to buy, even if Kelly has raised their price slightly, they are still likely just above free. The market for top wide receivers in free agency is usually pretty barren, and outside of Alshon Jeffery who is probably staying in Chicago, that is the case again in 2016. So, it will be interesting to see what the 49ers do in the draft at wide receiver, but adding a talent at the position should be one of Kelly’s first priorities.
[/am4show]
- Dynasty Trade Month: Trading in Dynasty Startups - March 21, 2022
- Devy Stock Market - November 19, 2021
- Devy Stock Market - October 29, 2021
What are your thoughts on DeAndre Smelter?
I actually like Smelter, I totally forgot he existed momentarily while writing this. But I do like him, I think he is the 2nd best wide receiver from a dyno perspective. But I do think he still has to show he is capable of coming back from serious injury, but he is a nice buy low with some high upside
I have the same question. In Dynasty the player, outside of Hyde, I am most interested in on the Niners is Smelter. I like Smelter’s upside, but am concerned given how Matthews fared in the Kelly system.
How Matthews was used doesn’t concern me as far as Smelter, I think quarterback play was more of the problem in Philly, not saying that isn’t a concern with Kaepernick, but I think it is less of a concern if Kap/Kelly mesh well
I like your middle-of-the-road take on Hyde. I’m worried that he’s more Murray than McCoy in that he seems to be a North/South runner rather than a McCoy/Matthews who can go East/West and make people miss. You’ve watched more tape than I have, but I’m curious what you think about my observation. Am I off base with that take?
No, I see that too. But I also think Hyde more of a quick twitch for his size, so while he isn’t as lanky as Mccoy, he has the ability to run stretch runs successfully and make moves when needed
I am interested to the impact this will have on Mike Davis. As with any new coach each guy on the team will be viewed equally during OTA’s and training camp. Davis has an edge on Hyde in terms of receiving talent and fits more of the McCoy mold, without the elusiveness.
I think Bruce Ellington is the guy to watch. Kelly seems to love quick twitch receivers, even if they are undersized. From a physical standpoint, Ellington is a bit of a watered down Beckham. Ellington hasn’t done anything yet, largely due to injury, but he compares favorably to the guys Kelly seems to like.
I agree. Bruce Ellington is entering his 3rd yr. He’s been forgotten. He’ll be someone I’ll target late in our rookie draft next spring.
