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Dynasty Trades: What is a Win?

James Simpson Posted On January 10, 2016
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I think it’s fair to say we enjoy the misfortunes of others. Why is it funny to watch people get hurt? Because we know it could happen to us, we empathise with it, but it didn’t happen to us. Part one was a chance for owners to step forward and admit where they fell. Hey, we all make mistakes. Let’s laugh to get over it. In fact, we can enjoy the good times more when we’ve been through the bad ones. That’s where part two comes in: an offering of some ‘good’ trades. I will give praise (everyone enjoys some recognition once in a while), but also reflect on the process and what could happen moving forward.

A lot of players get caught up in ‘winning’ or ‘losing’ a trade, but often it is fluid and almost never definite. Win short term and you might lose long term, and vice versa. For example, a couple of years ago a buddy of mine gave up a combination of Chris Ivory, Brandon Marshall and Jeremy Maclin (“Side A”) for Eddie Lacy and Demaryius Thomas (“Side B”). Which side ‘won’? Is it easy to say? In the first year, Lacy broke out and Thomas was among the top receivers while Ivory stumbled and Maclin was sidelined. Fast forward to this year, and as the fantasy season ended in week 16, Marshall was the WR3 on the season, Maclin was within 20 PPR points of Thomas, and Ivory was an early-season game-winner while Lacy found himself on the bench. Both owners can argue a ‘win’ at certain times.

I asked Twitter the below question a few weeks ago, and the idea for these articles was born:

My own best moves of 2015 were trading a fourth round pick for Michael Crabtree early in the off-season, and moving two seconds plus Stedman Bailey for Doug Martin in the pre-season. I’m particularly proud of the last one; considering I’ve been firmly anti-Martin since the end of his rookie year and decided 2015 was the year to jump back in. Sidenote: never count someone out, even if you don’t necessarily ‘like’ them or they’ve given you personal disappointment in the past – see Darren McFadden. On to your responses. [am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

Stephen was extremely active with rookie sensation Gurley, and made up for his regrettable trade in part one by acquiring the former Georgia Bulldog in two separate deals. It seems clear he got the better side of the Lynch deal, and right now he looks good in the second. But here’s where the fluidity kicks in – where will that first round pick be? How will that pick turn out? Will Hyde show the talent that he did in the first game of 2015 when he returns from injury? Whatever does happen, the rewards reaped by having Gurley on his teams will make these deal worth it for Stephen for many years.

When you make a ‘picks for vets’ move, you are giving up future production for immediate points, and Brian took a team that earned the 1.01 the previous year into the playoffs with a few different trades. This one, in particular, would have been the type of move that he’d hoped would put him over the edge. Marshall was one of the biggest performers this year in relation to his price before the year, and that’s how leagues are won. Note – both of the picks Brian gave turned out as late ones.

Craig worked some magic to wind up with a bunch of ascending dynasty assets. Obviously, hitting on the picks is the key here as moving a player of Thomas’ quality is a big risk, but four picks (assuming they aren’t all late/out of the first round) is simply a good return. Even on value alone, if used wisely those picks could be moved for veterans – and Craig used three to acquire Cooks, who showed snippets of his star quality this year. Even Cooper alone is arguably more valuable than Thomas at this point. I’d be very happy with these moves.

Agholor was a tremendous disappointment in Philadelphia in his rookie year. Then again, who wasn’t? If we were raving about his achievements and involvement in the Eagles’ offense at this point in the year, maybe Chip Kelly would still be around. However, even if the former USC wideout had performed, would he be on Green’s level? Will he ever be? I’m not sure if he will, and you have to pay premium prices for these elite dynasty talents. What happens with the picks might sway the deal, but Green is the key piece, and Decker was the icing on the cake.

In another Green deal, our Adam Tzikas moved the much-hyped Moncrief and a first for the Bengals’ wideout. Green was perhaps the cheapest of the ‘regular’ top-tier receivers at the beginning of 2015 (a group that includes Julio Jones, Dez Bryant and Antonio Brown), so it’s always wise to grab them while they are at their cheapest (knowing they will never be truly ‘cheap’). In 2016, look for Bryant to fall to the bottom of the group, purely because of his injury-plagued season. He’s a solid buy before a bounce-back.

I think a deal like this shows two mindsets: going for a ‘floor’ versus going for a ‘ceiling’. While Landry had a solid rookie year and looked like he’d follow it up with another, he isn’t going to be a fantasy superstar. It’s certainly not a massive knock on him, as he scored between ten and 20 points in 11 of 16 weeks in 2015, but he doesn’t provide as regular a deep threat that others do, and it caps his upside. Robinson, on the other hand, showed tremendous flashes in his rookie season but arguably didn’t have a ‘safe’ floor of Landry. Nathan’s gamble paid off in a big way.

Curtis was on the selling end of the best move I’ve seen for Freeman. I tried to move him in one league to upgrade my running back corps, but no deal I negotiated came close to this. This really is ‘selling high’ at it’s finest – Freeman may never be more valuable than we was through the first quarter/half of this season, and Watkins may never be cheaper to acquire than when he struggled and suffered an injury early in the year. Fabulous move.

Selling Graham was the right thing to do, as much as I thought the opposite in the off-season. But everything about this seems to have worked out. Presumably, Kelce was the main attraction in the first trade at the time, and Freeman was just an extra, but obviously things played out very differently. I’m not sure how LeMaraudeur got away with the second deal, but not only did Cam Newton have an MVP-type season, Hurns exceeded expectations in a huge way this year as well. Moving vets for youngsters doesn’t always mean losing immediate production.

These are the bold moves that make or break teams. Giving up someone regarded as a top five dynasty back before the season in Lacy for a rookie is dangerous, but that’s the confidence you have to show in a player like Gurley if you believe they are a top talent. Just think of what would have to be added to the Lacy side now to make this deal fair, and it tells you all need to know about Gurley’s rapid rise.

Sal got a double whammy here with a player win and a pick win. John Brown received a lot of hype before the season, and performed admirably, but Robinson has catapulted into stardom and holds tremendous value right now. Tyler Lockett looks like he could be special, and Tevin Coleman spent most of the year on the bench watching Devonta Freeman’s breakout. While Sal definitely got the best of the trade short term, I still have high hopes for the Falcons’ rookie back, and Coleman could go some way towards evening this out.

Ah, the art of the flip. As I mentioned to Justin, it’s important (though sometimes difficult) to be open to trading a player after you’ve recently acquired them. It’s easy to get attached to something new and shiny, but what if there’s something even more new and shiny out there? Always explore it. Essentially, the trades equate to AJ Green, Alfred Morris and some expendable pieces for Mike Evans, Le’Veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams. Who wins? I believe Green is the most valuable piece, but Bell is right there and Evans sits not too far behind. Depending on where Morris ends up and Bell’s health, this trade could swing quite a bit, but Justin can definitely be happy with his new assets.

What Did I Learn?

Don’t be afraid. Take risks. I’ve made some horrible trades in my time, and made some great ones too. But if I was deterred by the failures, there’s no way I could reap the benefits in future trades. I believe it’s extremely important to deeply evaluate our trades at the time we make them, then re-evaluate regularly down the line. Why did we do it? Where were we right or wrong? Were we trading on value, or talent? Did we buy at a player’s peak? Did we take a huge risk or play safe? There are countless questions with complex answers, but going some way towards understanding our own habits, strengths and weakness will ultimately make us better players.

Trade well, my friends.

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