The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly Truth: Recap (Part Two)

Jacob Feldman

larry_fitzgeraldAnother fantasy season is in the books, and the NFL playoffs are about to begin. For fantasy owners, this just might be the most important time of the year in my opinion. Before you start jumping into your plans for the off-season or who you are going to draft in your rookie draft, it is extremely important to sit down and look back at the decisions you made this past season. Where were you right? More importantly, where were you wrong, and why were you wrong? If you don’t take a moment to consider these questions you are bound to repeat the same mistakes in future seasons.

For that reason, I think it is important to take this final week and turn the good, bad, and ugly truth around, aiming it at how I did this season. Where was I right? Where was I wrong? Why was I wrong? Time to take a look! Players are in the order I addressed each one. Part one of the article featured weeks one-nine, while part two covers weeks ten-seventeen.

Travis Benjamin, WR CLE

Original take – I expected him to be a slightly inconsistent low end WR2 on the season. Long term there was some risk due to him being a free agent.

Result – Good call! Benjamin did finish as a back end WR2 or high end WR3 on the year, and was definitely very inconsistent. In leagues with return yardage he might have been a little better, but he faded from his hot start. He did have a few more big games after I wrote this, but he also had some terrible ones. Long term he is a wild card. He has the talent to be a quality deep threat, but he needs the right team to be productive.

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Jamison Crowder, WR WAS

Original take – I expected the Redskins passing game to continue to improve and for Crowder to be a part of it. I didn’t see a huge upside, but predicted a lot of 5-7 catch games with 40-70 yards. Long term he will be a low end WR3.

Result – Okay Call! While the offense did improve and Crowder was exactly what I expected through the middle of the season, he vanished from the gameplan from week 11 on. He didn’t see more than four targets in a game from week 11 until after the fantasy playoffs ended, even though Kirk Cousins was on fire during that time. It is bad news that Cousins was so productive with Crowder mostly being an afterthought. He was clearly the fourth or fifth option from week 11 on, and I think he will stay that way in the future. I don’t see a ton of upside.

Orleans Darkwa, RB NYG

Original take – Lead role in a committee was his upside. Could be a back end RB2 or flex play if he gets a score, but isn’t going to be much more than that. He is worth an add in larger leagues, but little more than a back of the roster player.

Result – Good call! He was just a flash in the pan. His touchdown in week seven was his only of the season, and he never topped more than eight carries in any of his weeks. Who knows what the off-season will bring in New York with Coughlin out of town, but I doubt Darkwa will amount to anything more than a career backup.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARI

Original take – Fitz would continue to turn back the clock and post one of the best seasons of his career. I think he could definitely be a solid WR2 for several more seasons as well. If anyone can mirror Jerry Rice for production in their 30s it is Fitz.

Result – Good call! Fitz set a career high in receptions at age 32. While his touchdown pace declined and he was a little less involved during the fantasy playoffs, he had five catches or more in all but three games this year. He was a very solid high floor WR2, and I think it will stay that way with Carson Palmer at the helm.

crabtreeMichael Crabtree, WR OAK

Original take – Solid WR2 down the stretch, and he will earn himself a nice contract from someone. A young quarterback and young stud opposite from him will make him a little inconsistent, but he’ll help fantasy teams make it to the playoffs at a low price. Long term value depends on where he lands.

Result – Good call! The inconsistency was a little annoying with games like four catches for 19 yards, but otherwise he had 9-16 fantasy points in each of the last eight games of the season. Not a huge ceiling, but a solid floor given his price tag. I would expect much the same for the next few years now that he resigned with Oakland. Amari Cooper will take over, but Derek Carr will also improve to keep Crabtree a factor.

JJ Nelson, WR ARI

Original take – Undersized and has a limited skill set, he is an end of the roster player without much of a chance for a solid role on the offense. He might have a big game at some point, but he isn’t going to be worth starting.

Result – Good call! Nelson vanished down the stretch for the Cardinals as soon as everyone else become healthy. He has an interesting skill set, but I don’t see him as being much more than a situational deep threat for the Cards.

Spencer Ware, RB KC

Original take – After taking over for an injured West, Ware posted 96 yards and two scores. I predicted a very limited window, and that West would get his job back as soon as he was healthy. Sell Ware while you could.

Result – Good call! Ware had another good game the following week, but he then took a back seat to West. Ware seems to have the goal line role, but I expect West to be the main guy in the playoffs. Even if Ware does still get some work, I think they are competing for the backup role next year with Charles returning.

Markus Wheaton, WR PIT

Original take – He’s good enough to be the third receiver for the Steelers, but he’s going to be inconsistent in that role. It will bit tough to count on him as a weekly contributor for your fantasy team, so I suggested moving him. His 200 yard game will be the best of his career.

Result – Okay call! Wheaton didn’t have any more 200 yard games, but he was more consistent than I expected. He had five or more targets in all of his last five games and added in three more touchdowns. He was actually a very solid WR2 down the stretch for teams. I still view him as more of a four catch for 50 yards kind of guy, so I would be trying to move him.

No one can get all of their takes right, but I was pretty good! Outside of the major miss with Freeman and a slightly less severe miss on Barnidge, I was close on everyone else. So what did I learn from my look back? I need to be careful not to put too much stock in the past with a young player (like Freeman) or when the situation has changed (like Barnidge). Players and roles do evolve, so we need to keep that in mind when looking at potential breakouts. Thanks for reading this season. Now it is time to head into the off-season where things really get busy!

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jacob feldman