The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Truth: Week Two
One of the things we as human beings tend to do an awful lot of in our lives is react to the things we see around us. Often times this is a good thing. For example, if a car just so happens to be driving down the same sidewalk you are walking on, you better get out of the way! That’s definitely a good reaction.
There is another side of the coin, though – that is the gross overreaction which is becoming more and more common into today’s world, thanks in part to social media. This isn’t just in life but also in the world of fantasy football. It isn’t uncommon for the smallest of things are blown way out of proportion. Other times what should be a minor blip on the radar gets way more attention than it deserves. There are also times when we ignore all of the warning signs and try to stay the course, not realizing we are heading for a cliff. Don’t worry though, because I’m here to help with these very things.
Each week I will examine a player or sometimes multiple players to see if their value is on par with what people are talking about. Often times this will be a player who “breaks out” the previous week and might be getting a lot of attention in trade talks or on the waiver wire. Other times it might be a player who received a lot of hype during the off-season who isn’t living up to expectations. Regardless of what it is, I’ll be doing my best to steer you in the right direction and get you a step ahead of your leaguemates.
Keep in mind that no one is perfect. After all, I told you to ignore Justin Forsett after opening weekend last year. Hey, we all make mistakes, but I like to think I’ve had a pretty good track record over the years of doing this. Two years ago, I was one of the first to lay out why you needed to trade Trent Richardson for whatever you could get, much like the Browns had done a week or two before. At the time I was blasted by readers, but if you listened, you sold before his value crashed. I was also dead on with Larry Donnell fading down the stretch, Allen Hurns being good enough to stay ahead of Marqise Lee on the depth chart, Antone Smith being little more than a rarely used homerun hitter and countless other takes from the last few years. Moral of the story, I miss from time-to-time like everyone else, but I feel I get it right much more often. When I’m wrong, I’ll own that mistake.
This week there are a lot of great options to discuss. I could talk about James Starks, but that seems to come up almost every year. In fact, he was one of the subjects of this very series back in week 2 of 2013 when Eddie Lacy also went down and Starks stepped up. Even though it was two years ago, not a whole lot has changed on that front. I could also focus on Matt Jones, but I try to avoid rookies and we focused on him in the Rookie Report Card this week. In my opinion, he is going to be in a committee with Alfred Morris and be the full time starter in 2016. He’s the guy to own in Washington and has been all summer long. Instead I’m going to focus in on the AFC East with two players who weren’t on many radars this summer but have been fantasy leaders for their teams so far this season. I’m talking about Dion Lewis of the Patriots and Rishard Matthews of the Dolphins.
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Dion Lewis, RB NE
Week 2 stats: Seven carries for 40 yards and one touchdown. Six receptions on nine targets for 98 yards.
2015 stats: 22 carries for 109 yards and one touchdown. Ten receptions on 14 targets for 149 yards.
People always scramble for a piece of the pie when you have a high powered offense without an established running back. This summer was no exception. With Stevan Ridley now in a Jets uniform and Shane Vereen following the money to the Giants, there were a few holes in the Patriots’ backfield. When LeGarrette Blount was suspended for the first game it left a hole large enough that even Trent Richardson could have ran through it. Well, maybe that was taking it a little too far…
Anyway, people were scrambling for the New England rushers, knowing one of them could be fantasy gold at pawn shop prices. The free agent signing of Travaris Cadet created a target for several, while others went after James White or Brandon Bolden. Most felt Blount would get his job back when the suspension ended and he would be the back to own, though. Through two weeks, that hasn’t been the case. In fact, pretty much everyone was wrong since Dion Lewis has been leading the charge. Will it continue?
The Good: Even after only two weeks, it is clear that Lewis is the player who is filling the role vacated by Vereen. He is the most talented of the pass catchers and definitely seems to have the trust of both Belichick and Brady. If you don’t believe me, check out the snap counts from week two. Lewis was on the field for 73 of the 86 Patriot snaps against the Bills. The vast majority of those were passing plays. Not only is he seeing the field a lot in those situations, but he is excelling in them. He is averaging over ten yards per target in the passing game, which is pretty special for a running back.
Lewis is on the smaller side, but he more than makes up for his lack of power with his agility. According to profootballfocus.com, Lewis has forced nine missed tackles so far this season. This is just one behind the league leaders at the position, Giovani Bernard and Marshawn Lynch. When you have the ability to make people miss, you always have the chance for a big play.
The Bad: The biggest concern for Lewis has to be the team he is on. Belichick is loyal to one and only one player on his team, Tom Brady. I don’t mean in the traditional sense of the word but rather when it comes to production and their role. Anyone else can and will be replaced if it helps the team win. One of the biggest reasons Lewis saw 73 snaps on Sunday was the game plan. The Patriots were trying to take the elite defensive line of the Bills out of the mix by going extremely pass heavy and incorporating a lot of quick hitting passes – this will not be their traditional strategy. The game plan shifts drastically from one week to the next in New England, which could leave Lewis on the bench for large stretches of the game. The usage of the New England running backs is one of the biggest mysteries week in and week out in fantasy leagues. If Lewis is limited primarily to passing game duties (which I think he will be), this is going to make life rather difficult for his owners.
The Ugly Truth: Lewis is a very good running back when playing in the passing game. He isn’t quite Darren Sproles in his prime, but he is still quite good. In fact, he might even be better than Vereen. The issue is he is just a passing down running back. He lacks the size and the skill set to run effectively between the tackles for 15+ carries in a game, which means he is going to be a committee back. Sometimes this means decent flex value week in and week out. The problem with Lewis is going to be consistency. Look back at the running back distribution over any of the last few years in New England. The only trend is there isn’t a trend. The usage of backs is highly dependent upon the game plan, meaning Lewis could be a solid RB2 one week and get five touches next. It would make me extremely nervous to slot him into my fantasy lineup. He could have a big week, but I don’t think I would count on it. If someone is willing to pay you RB2 or RB3 prices for him, I would gladly take it because there are going to be some bad weeks at some point when the Patriots decide to pound the ball with Blount.
Final Verdict: He is a New England running back. He is going to be highly productive when the game plan favors his skill set and almost invisible when it doesn’t. The issue is figuring out which weeks will be the good ones. If you can do it, you’ll be golden. If you want to play the guessing game, go for it. Personally, I’m trying to sell him right now because I’m not a fan of the boom or bust types.
Rishard Matthews, WR MIA
Week 2 stats: Six receptions on seven targets for 115 yards.
2015 stats: Ten receptions on 13 targets for 149 yards and one touchdown.
Heading into the season, we thought we had the Dolphins wide receiver group figured out. Jarvis Landry established himself last year, Kenny Stills was picked up in a trade, DeVante Parker was drafted in the first round and Greg Jennings joined the group as a veteran presence. Everyone figured those were the top four receivers with Parker slowly pushing Jennings aside in three receiver sets and then eventually replacing Stills in two receiver sets. Very few expected anyone else on roster to break up that group.
Then we started hearing whispers about Rishard Matthews. It was written off by most as just off-season hype since he had a total of 64 receptions in 38 games prior to this year. He was a healthy scratch for parts of the 2014 season and just seemed to be a fringe NFL player. Those whispers turned into shouts when Matthews played as a starter through all of training camp. Matthews’ exact position on the depth chart is a little foggy, but he is seeing the field in three receiver sets while Stills is not.
The Good: The most encouraging thing about Matthews has to be his usage and chemistry with quarterback Ryan Tannehill. We saw it all preseason and it has continued through the first two weeks. So far, Matthews is second on the team in targets with 13 (Landry has 22). The next closest receiver is Jennings with just eight. The gap in production is even more extreme. Matthews has been the primary outside receiver so far this year with Landry working over the middle a large chunk of the time. This is a little surprising since the big knock against Matthews coming out of college was his overall lack of speed and agility.
The Bad: This is year four in the league for Matthews and up until this point he has been little more than an afterthought for the Dolphins. In fact, after posting 41 receptions for 448 yards in 2013 he was pushed further down the depth chart in 2014. There was clearly something they didn’t like. So how did he end up with his role this year?
Could Matthews have finally figured out how to be a receiver in the NFL? Sure, he could have. It is also possible it was just the result of him being in Miami longer. Jennings, Parker and Stills are all new to the Dolphins and Tannehill doesn’t have established chemistry with them. Not only that, but Stills and Parker both missed large portions of the off-season and training camp with injuries, making Matthews a starter by default. If that is the case, it is going to become increasingly difficult for him to hold onto his role as others get healthy and start to earn the trust of their young quarterback.
The Ugly Truth: Matthews has been playing well so far this year and is acting as one of the top outside receivers. He’s better than the 32-year old version of Jennings and should continue to be the number two target in the passing game. I expect this to continue for the next few weeks as Parker and Stills try to make up for all of the time they have missed. However, both Stills and Parker are more talented than Matthews and it really isn’t close. I think it is only a matter of time before the starting three receivers for the Dolphins includes Landry, Stills and Parker, leaving Matthews on the outside looking in. If you need someone for a few weeks to help cover injuries or early bye weeks, Matthews might be a decent choice. I wouldn’t count on anything long term though.
Final Verdict: He’s been acting as the second receiver for the first two weeks, but it won’t last all season. It is only a matter of time before the more talented newcomers, like Stills and Parker, take over his role. The unknown is how long it will be. It could be one week or ten weeks, but just realize it is temporary. If you need someone for the short term, Matthews could help. But keep long term expectations in check.
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
