Dynasty Stock Market: Synthesizing Dynasty Rankings

Ryan McDowell

mariota
As you might know, I teach third grade. I have found teachers have a completely different language than others, just as other businessmen and women have a vernacular specific to their craft. Teachers use words others don’t need to and we often attempt to teach these words to your children. One of those words is synthesizing. This is not a word I regularly use outside of my classroom, but it really is a great word. It refers to understanding how and why your thinking is changing. As fantasy football players, we change our minds all the time, but I think its necessary to understand and address exactly why we are changing, especially when it comes to player valuation.

With Week One in the books, I thought it was time to take another look at my positional dynasty rankings. After the games ended Sunday and Monday, I read and heard the same piece of advice over and over…be careful not to overreact to just one week of football. While I agree with this to a degree, what we saw Sunday was not just “one week of football.” It was a culmination of weeks and months of practice, training camp, draft picks, free agent signing, trades, pre-season games and more. So, while I agree we should not overreact, I do think we should act based on the evidence of Week One.

That’s not to say what we saw last week will always carry over for the entire season, but I do think it’s fair to say Week One is more important than other weeks, when it comes to learning new information and adjusting our thinking about players and situations. So, that’s just what I’ve done.

I went through a deep dive of my quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end rankings, looking for players that needed to be adjusted based on Week One, the pre-season and my projections for the remainder of the 2015 season. Let’s take a look at some risers and fallers in my positional rankings.

Rising

Marcus Mariota, QB TEN
Up from QB9 to QB7

The performance of rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota certainly got a lot of attention over the past few days. After all, he was one-half of the rookie quarterback showdown featuring the top two picks from the most recent NFL Draft. Unlike his counterpart Jameis Winston, Mariota did not disappoint, throwing four touchdowns in the first half before calling off the troops and cruising to an easy win.

The move up two spots may not seem like a major adjustment for Mariota, but the impact on his team, making players who looked lost a year ago suddenly look like impact players (we’re looking at you Kendall Wright and Bishop Sankey) cannot be overlooked. Of course, the bad news is Mariota won’t face the Bucs each week, but he was efficient and protected the ball, things that will be very important in tighter games. At just 21 years old, there are few quarterbacks I’d rather have than Mariota. That being said, he is not a trade target of mine this week. First, I hate buying high and the rookie hype has extended into the regular season as young players are performing well. Obviously, Mariota will have some clunkers along the way and that will provide a better opportunity for trying to acquire him in your dynasty league.

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Chris Ivory, RB NYJ
Up from RB49 to RB40

The move of Jets’ back Chris Ivory into my top 40 running backs is as much about me underrating him in recent years as it is about his impressive Week One game. Ivory was just under 100 yards and scored a pair of touchdowns. I projected the Jet’s running back situation to be a mess of a committee, but with Stevan Ridley still on the shelf for another five weeks and the team making Zac Stacy a healthy scratch, they are declaring their allegiance to Ivory and I’m jumping on board. With the Jets leaning on their defense and expectations of the passing game struggling, Ivory should be a solid weekly play.

lockettTyler Lockett, WR SEA
Up from WR72 to WR31 

Another player I strongly underrated this preseason is Seahawks’ rookie receiver and return man Tyler Lockett. Lockett was a playmaker at Kansas State and I was unsure that would project to the NFL. After just a couple of preseason games, I was changing my thinking about his future. The third round draft capitol spent by the wide receiver needy Seahawks played a role in that assessment as well. Lockett was used extensively as a wide receiver in Week One and it’s not a stretch to tab him as the most talented receiver on the team already. For those in leagues that reward return yardage and/or touchdowns, he’s even more valuable.

Travis Kelce, TE KC
Up from TE3 to TE2

This is not a huge move up for the Chiefs’ Travis Kelce, but it’s who he leaps that makes this significant. Kelce exploded in Week One, catching a team high six balls for over 100 yards and two scores. Kelce continued where he left off last season, when he enjoyed a breakout season that had him consider by most as the third tight end option behind Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham. The latter, of course, is who I’ve now moved down to the three spot. Graham was dealt to the Seahawks this off-season and while they are a consistent Super Bowl contender, their passing offense is not at the level we’ve become accustomed to when Graham was in New Orleans. The Seahawks will spread the ball around and run the ball more than the Saints did during Graham’s tenure there. I’m still happy to own Graham in dynasty leagues and he will have big games, but Kelce is now my preference behind Gronkowski.

Falling

Peyton Manning, QB DEN
Down from QB17 to QB20

This is not the same Peyton Manning who led so many teams to fantasy titles over the years and that’s not a hyperbolic statement based on one poor game. Looking back, Manning’s past five regular season games have been the worst stretch of his career by a wide margin. In those five games, Manning has just three total passing touchdowns to go along with seven interceptions. Considering Manning has no long-term value at all, thanks to the threat of his impending retirement and he is almost a player who deserves to hit the waiver wire. After all, there are many other options to consider on a weekly basis. Regardless, Manning certainly deserves to fall and would be a hard sell to any other owner in your league.

Andre Ellington, RB ARI
Down from RB39 to RB43

I’ve been low on Ellington virtually his entire NFL career. While he was a cheap option I targeted during his rookie year, once expectations rose, I was not a believer at his new lofty value. Ellington has rarely managed to stay healthy dating back to his college years and we saw him suffer another injury in Week One. The folks over at Sports Injury Predictor pegged Ellington as the most likely running back to suffer a serious injury this season. Add in the explosive play of rookie David Johnson and even if Ellington is healthy, I expect him to lose touches.

Dez Bryant, WR DAL
Down from WR1 to WR4

Cowboys’ star receiver Dez Bryant suffered a broken bone in his foot in the Cowboys’ opening game on Sunday night. There’s already been some confusion on exactly how long we can expect Bryant to be on the sidelines, but eight weeks now seems to be the minimum rest and recovery time he will require. For fantasy leagues, that means he’ll miss around two-thirds of the fantasy regular season at a minimum. I previously valued Bryant as my top receiver and top overall player, but with the injury to consider, he’s fallen just a few spots.

This drop may be a bit surprising and confusing, as I’d actually recommend buying Bryant in most dynasty scenarios, especially if he comes at any discount. Moving him below Odell Beckham, Mike Evans and Julio Jones simply means I would, in most situations, deal him for any of that trio in a one for one deal.

Josh Hill, TE NO
Down from TE14 to TE19

I’ve already mentioned the Graham trade to Seattle, which left a huge void for the Saints. Many, myself included, expected big tight end Josh Hill to claim a nice portion of that production. While he only had 14 receptions playing behind Graham in 2014, five of those went for touchdowns. In Sunday’s loss to Arizona, Hill was a complete non-factor and didn’t record a completion, even though Drew Brees threw nearly 50 passes in the Saints comeback attempt. Hill will have much better games and should become part of the passing game, but this is a reminder that it’s poor practice to project numbers for one player based on what another accomplished.

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ryan mcdowell