Tuesday Transactions: Week One

Eric Hardter

bryant

Dynasty football is undoubtedly a marathon, not a sprint. With that said, in-season roster management is still every bit as critical as in a standard re-draft format and arguably even more so given the potential long-term ramifications. As such, this weekly piece is here to provide you with a dozen moves it might just behoove you to make.

Continuing, these transactions will be broken down into four categories: players you should buy low, sell high, buy high and sell low. The first two are self explanatory and follow the typical stock market analogy, which is that you should pounce when the market fluctuates in your favor – if you can get the most bang for your buck or scoop up the metaphorical penny stocks who have room to grow, it could be in your best interest to do so. Conversely, the latter two categories represent a contradictory stance and some might even consider them “desperation” moves – however, it’s my belief that buying high beats buying higher, and selling low is preferable to selling even lower.

Before I dispense my advice though, I want to provide one final disclaimer – these opinions are my own, and if you’re higher or lower on any of the players mentioned below you should absolutely stick to your guns. In that vein, given the small sample size thus far in the season I also believe it’s too soon to irrevocably change an opinion you spent an entire off-season cultivating. As such, for now these recommended moves will vary little, if at all, from my summertime beliefs.

Let’s get started with Year Two of Tuesday Transactions!

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Buy Low

  1. Sammy Watkins, WR BUF – No, that’s not exactly what we wanted to see. After reportedly blowing up in camp and proving to be “uncoverable,” Watkins took a backseat to fellow wideout Percy Harvin en route to a forgettable opener. Sticky coverage from top cornerback Vontae Davis didn’t help, nor did the game flow (the surprising rout resulted in only 19 passing attempts for the Bills), but it’s impossible to polish this turd of a performance. Given that it wouldn’t be shocking to see a seed of doubt creeping into Watkins owners and if you still believe, it might be time to pounce.
  2. Dez Bryant, WR DAL – This one is simple. Yes, we’re talking dynasty football here, but if the Bryant owner fancies himself a contender he might be looking for help in his staring lineup in order to compete. You might only get a slight discount, but when we’re talking about the erstwhile top dynasty asset (according to our ADP) every little bit helps. If you have the depth, or aren’t planning on competing right now, I’d look to flip an asset like Alshon Jeffery or Randall Cobb for Dez.
  3. Ameer Abdullah, RB DET – Much like with Bryant above, it’s all relative. Abdullah managed to sequester 11 touches yesterday, turning them into a whopping 94 yards and a touchdown. While his usage trumped that of his positional cohorts, it still only represented 48% of the team’s aggregate running back workload. Given the dynamic he showed, I expect that number to keep climbing. You’re going to want to get in on this before that happens.

Sell High

  1. Terrance Williams, WR DAL – Yes, the usage will likely be there, but make no mistake about it – T-Will isn’t a WR1. I’d personally rather sell now before he gets the chance to prove that once again, looking to Cole Beasley (and even running back Lance Dunbar) as a cheaper arbitrage play.
  2. Ladarius Green, TE SD – Though I know I’m risking the wrath of the Ladarius truthers once again, I refuse to let a one-game sample size undo three years of evidence. Yes, Green played well, but quarterback Philip Rivers was able to do whatever he wanted against Detroit’s once-vaunted defense (35/42 for 404 yards and a pair of touchdowns), leading to fantasy-relevant days for Keenan Allen, Stevie Johnson and Green. I still firmly believe it’s going to be Antonio Gates’ show when he returns, and don’t envision too many more blow-ups like this for the fantasy darling.
  3. Chris Johnson, RB ARI – This suggestion has nothing to do with CJ?K’s play yesterday, as his 3.7 YPC were a full 2.1 fewer than what starter Andre Ellington achieved. Instead, it has more to do with the fact there are precious few starting running backs with likely guaranteed usage, which is what Johnson is looking at for the next 1-3 games before Ellington returns. Coach Bruce Arians clearly doesn’t believe rookie David Johnson is ready and the Cardinals get the soft Chicago defense next week. All told this effectively represents the perfect storm of getting out while the getting is good.

Buy High

  1. Jarvis Landry, WR MIA – For anyone who paid attention during the preseason, it wasn’t surprising in the least to see Landry receive a whopping 12 targets, which was five more than any other Miami pass catcher and good for 35.2% of the team’s usage. Yes, his aDOT was still lacking, but his eight receptions are PPR gold, and he even got a few red zone targets to boot. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if games like this one are closer to Landry’s floor than his ceiling.
  2. Chris Ivory, RB NYJ – No, the Browns aren’t a good football team, but dropping 91 yards (4.6 YPC) and two touchdowns against anyone isn’t an easy thing to do. More importantly, he monopolized usage, accruing 20 carries before he was rested in favor of Bilal Powell, who received six of his 12 carries on the final two drives of the game. The touchdowns won’t always be there, but the fact remains this isn’t the 2014 Jets offense – there are legitimate playmakers on the outside, and coordinator Chan Gailey has brought this until into the 21st century. We’ve always wanted to see what Ivory could do in such a scenario and it appears we’re finally getting our wish.
  3. Tyler Eifert, TE CIN – I had high hopes for Eifert coming into the season, but his week one eruption (9-104-2) dwarfed even my wildest expectations. I don’t expect this pace to continue and expect his target share to fall below superstar AJ Green, but at worst, Eifert will be the clear second option in the Cincy passing game. Given the barren hellscape that is the tight end position, seeking out that type of upside could and should provide you with a weekly advantage relative to your peers.

Sell Low

  1. Rueben Randle, WR NYG – If you read my recently published AIR Affair, Randle’s week one performance was hardly shocking. He couldn’t get it done in the best of times last year, so if the Giants struggle like they did against Dallas he has little to no shot at fantasy viability. Despite this, Roob’s Teflon coating still exists, albeit as a rapidly thinning film. I’d sell before “low” becomes “non-existent,” which will likely be upon Victor Cruz’ return.

PS – Letting James Jones go at final cuts in favor of Preston Parker – oops!

  1. LeSean McCoy, RB BUF – After touting him as a smart “buy” all Summer, I’m willing to take my medicine on this one and contradict the column’s introduction. I know McCoy was fighting an injury, but he just looked bad and didn’t seem like a natural fit in a power running scheme. The Bills sank too much into acquiring and extending him to relegate him to the bench, but it’s entirely possible McCoy is squarely in his decline phase (remember, he’s an “old” 27). Though there should be plenty of carries to go around in the Bills’ run-first offense, impressive rookie Karlos Williams is going to receive his fair share – I’d be selling McCoy before that happens.
  2. Sammy Watkins, WR BUF – Symmetry! Though I personally align with what I wrote in his “buy low” blurb, I can certainly understand and appreciate the other side of the coin. Watkins’ value isn’t going to tank after one bad game, meaning you can still likely trade him for as much today as you could Saturday – so if you believe the clash versus Indy was a harbinger of things to come, I won’t argue against flipping him for a similarly priced asset like Amari Cooper or Jordan Matthews, or even adding a pick and “trading up” for a pass catcher in the consensus top tier.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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eric hardter