Off-Season Reflections: The Rookies

James Simpson

reflections

Before they are welcomed into the league, we all have our own ideas of where rookies will go and how highly they should be ranked in a dynasty setting. However, both draft position and NFL team are huge determining factors in not only how we view a player, but how successful they ultimately are. For veterans, it usually takes a lot of change (to their team or surrounding cast) for us to re-think how we value them, but rookies experience massive opinion changes from the moment their names are called. There are always anomalies (for example, Marcus Mariota’s ADP rank of 116 in August was exactly the same as in March), but this group of players easily sees the biggest movement in ADP in the off-season.

Below, I examine the biggest rookie movers since March. Some things to consider are:

  • Have we moved them due to draft position, or team (or both)?
  • How much do we value our own pre-draft evaluations in relation to the NFL’s views of a player?
  • Can talent supersede a bad situation?
  • What are our short and long term expectations for the player?

Note: Anyone undrafted was given a rank of 241 (as used by Ryan McDowell in his data collection).

Amari Cooper, WR OAK
March ADP: 27, August ADP: 18 (+9)

It’s been too long since Oakland had a receiver who we could rely on in fantasy football – that is about to change. I envision an improvement in the production and performance of second-year man Derek Carr (as long as his hand injury doesn’t keep him out for too long) and Cooper will only aid his development. This year’s number four overall pick is silky, smooth and polished; and could arguably have been the highest rated receiver even if he was lumped in with last year’s unique class. Considering he could be in the discussion for top overall dynasty pick next year, there is no surprise we have lofty expectations right now. Let’s just hope nobody else rips off his helmet and smashes his head back into it.

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TJ Yeldon, RB JAX
March: 76, August: 40 (+36)

Remember when Toby Gerhart moved up 144 ADP spots because he was touted to be the guy in Gus Bradley’s Jacksonville offense? That didn’t turn out too well, so the team targeted Yeldon. What’s interesting to me is how much steam he has gained since his second round selection (he is now being drafted above Lamar Miller, Matt Forte and Carlos Hyde). I didn’t necessarily ‘see it’ when evaluating Yeldon (Jeff Miller did), but he is versatile and will be the immediate starter. He was fine yesterday with 51 yards on 12 carries.

Nelson Agholor, WR PHI
March: 125, August: 42 (+83)

Agholor was a huge riser from the moment the college football season ended, even before he was chosen as the latest weapon in Chip Kelly’s manic offense. I discussed this in May’s Draft review, with a hint of excitement about the speed element he will provide. I envision a Jordan Matthews-like first year, with big games mixed in with underwhelming weeks. The sky is the limit for him long-term, but the team has proven they have enough weapons to spread the ball around and Agholor may take some time to threaten the vets. We’ll see how that plays out starting tonight.

abdullahAmeer Abdullah, RB DET
March: 95, August: 48 (+47)

If we had ADP data from week one of the pre-season to now, Abdullah would be shooting up draft boards. It was one run, guys! Funnily enough, it was reminiscent of a run I highlighted back in May when I ‘argued for Ameer.’ I am a huge Abdullah supporter, but Joique Bell is still the backfield leader and it will be more important for the rookie to earn Matthew Stafford’s trust than impress with highlight-reel plays. However, he’s coming for the number one job and you will want to own him when he gets it. It sure helps when you score on your first ever carry in a real NFL game, though.

Breshad Perriman, WR BAL
March: 126, August: 50 (+76)

Assuming Perriman can get healthy soon without any setbacks, he could have a Kelvin Benjamin-type rookie campaign in Baltimore. When a team lacks receiving options, but brings in an offensive coordinator who loves throwing the ball to guide a quarterback with a cannon-arm (Marc Trestman), there will be opportunities. Perriman was a late riser throughout the draft process, but his size, speed and athleticism can’t be denied – our Brian Bulmer profiled the former UCF man in June. The risk here is that his superior athleticism may not translate directly to great football, but his upside is enormous.

Tevin Coleman, RB ATL
March: 87, August: 64 (+23)

Coleman was laying low for most of the summer, but the moment he was recently announced as the starter for Atlanta this week, the chatter increased. Devonta Freeman is a fantastic change-of-pace, sparkplug-type player, but Coleman is the real deal. I like explosive, productive and powerful runners who perform at the highest level against the best opponents and Coleman is a firm favorite. There is a great opportunity here, in an offense that will always provide scoring opportunities and he is one of the many rookie runners that you will want to get a hold of sooner, rather than later. As an added bonus, he is a lefty (I dig left-handed running backs). We’ll get our first glimpse of Coleman tonight in the early game.

Phillip Dorsett, WR IND
March: 159, August: 81 (+78)

A projected mid-rounder turned actual first-rounder warrants a rise. Being selected by Andrew Luck’s Colts warrants a massive one. However, drafters selecting him in the top 100 last month (August) may have been accounting for TY Hilton’s looming contract issue (similarly to the early summer excitement about Davante Adams with Randall Cobb’s contract). Now, with Hilton’s new deal, I wouldn’t be surprised if owners backed off a tad. Is that the right thing to do? You could argue Dorsett is still a prime dynasty target, even though his first game was a hot mess. He’ll get more opportunities with TY Hilton on the shelf.

Jay Ajayi, RB MIA
March: 56, August: 96 (-40)

Here is our first major faller and expect him to drop even further with the news that he won’t be able to return to the field until week ten after cracking a rib and being placed on the IR/designated-for-return list. Ajayi is, in my opinion, a prime buy-low in the next month or so. Lamar Miller could be on the move at the end of the season and even while he is still around, I think Ajayi will show enough spark towards the end of this season to be given opportunities.

David Johnson, RB ARI
March: 123, August: 99 (+24)

I am enough of a degenerate to remember our Scott Fish ‘bigging up’ Johnson towards the end of last year and grouping him with Ajayi and Javorius Allen as “bigger running backs who have great hands in the passing game – players who are capable of taking a three down role in the NFL.” I tend to agree with that for Ajayi and to some extent Allen, but I believe this rise of more situational than to do with Johnson’s long-term capabilities. While he will certainly see a lot of action both as a runner and through the air, I am wary of projecting him as a back that ever truly rules the roost.

Jaelen Strong, WR HOU
March: 63, August: 101 (-38)

Strong is a typical ‘raw,’ big and rangy receiver who lacks crafty route-running skills or special hands. He is also exactly the type of player I tend to miss on. When evaluating a college player like Strong, I want to see athleticism and physical power translated to the field. I expect bigger receivers to be really savvy ‘football-players’ as well – but this can be too much to ask, and isn’t a requirement for success. Kelvin Benjamin, for example, was a physical specimen who won with his strength, not simply by ‘getting open.’ I thought the inability to run clean routes would hinder him, but evidently it didn’t. Players win in different ways and Strong could have an immediate impact due with his size and length. He might be a sneaky sleeper right now.

Javorius Allen, RB BAL
March: 182, August: 121 (+61)

Earlier this summer, the Fake Football’s Rich Hribar argued the real beneficiaries of a Marc Trestman offense are the running backs, not necessarily the quarterbacks. I agree, and as mentioned previously, Allen excels in the passing game so seems to be a perfect fit. However, with Justin Forsett’s ascension from 127 to 77 in the data (a 50 spot jump), something doesn’t add up. The two groups of drafters driving up each these player’s ADPs must believe that ‘their guy’ will win the job, as I don’t think Baltimore can house two strong fantasy running backs. If you’re in the Allen camp, he is a buy-low if his production comes anywhere near to Forsett last year. Forsett fans must decide if the rookie will eventually take over (worth buying) or simply be a complement (not worth his current price).

Matt Jones, RB WAS
March: 213, August: 122 (+91)

Jones is one of the most hyped rookies as we approach the start of the season, as a strong preseason performance and excitement from his coaches has meant a continued rise. Although I believe Alfred Morris is a strong starter, this recent line from Jay Gruden is tough to dissect: “Alfred’s still the bell cow. We want to keep him fresh for 16 games. If he gets 12-20 carries, Matt Jones gets eight to 10, I don’t know how that’s going to work or play out.” Gruden’s idea of bell cow seemed to mean 12 carries to Jones’ 10 and that didn’t instil too much confidence in fantasy owners. However, the first game of the year saw Morris with 25 carries and Jones have just six. I sense the team will actively try to get Jones involved at Morris’ expense as the season rolls along. Keep tabs, and be quick to pounce if it does happen.

Chris Conley, WR KC
March: 160, August: 125 (+35)

Our Jacob Feldman profiled this athletic freak back in May and I am really intrigued by the third-rounder. He isn’t on a top offense, but has a fairly clear path to the starting receiver role opposite Jeremy Maclin. While Travis Kelce and Jamaal Charles may hog the short-to-intermediate targets, don’t be surprised to see Conley and Maclin with high yard-per-reception totals as the team looks to stretch the field a-la the Andy Reid offense of old. Conley seems to be flying under the radar right now, even falling to 3.10 in our final pre-season rookie mock. I like the value here.

Tyler Lockett, WR SEA
March: 179, August: 126 (+53)

You won’t be able to get Lockett for this price now. He scored on a kickoff return, a punt return and a long reception in the pre-season, and couldn’t have made a better first impression. To make things even more interesting, he returned a punt for a score in his first ever NFL game yesterday. He will be a fantastic addition as the Seahawks begin a transition to becoming an offensive force and his rookie drafters got a steal. He will be used all over the field and definitely deserves this rise.

More risers: Cameron Artis Payne, RB CAR (March: Undrafted, August ADP: 137), Kenny Bell, WR TB (March: Undrafted, August: 169), DeAndre Smelter, WR SF (March: Undrafted, August: 170), Tre McBride, WR TEN (March: Undrafted, August: 184).

More fallers: Sammie Coates, WR PIT, (March: 110, August: 138), Stefon Diggs, WR MIN (March: 131, August: 171), Duron Carter, WR IND (March: 114, August: 196), Rashad Greene, WR JAX (March: 187, August: 228)

Thoughts

Most of the names above were risers, not fallers. How do we explain that? Is it rookie fever? Is it simply the talent level of the class? This year, we saw some receivers drafted in the first round who we weren’t totally sure of before the draft (Perriman, Agholor and Dorsett), and running backs in a strong class end up in great situations (Yeldon, Abdullah and Coleman), so I am not surprised about the rises. However, the lack of big fallers surprised me a little. Perhaps those who liked a player pre-draft will still take them in a similar spot post draft, regardless of where and when they are drafted (except in extreme cases). Is that the right thing to do? Or do we listen to the league?

Last year, we mostly got these rookie movers right. Brandin Cooks, Jordan Matthews and Davante Adams were among the risers, and Ka’Deem Carey, Marqise Lee and Jace Amaro among fallers. As a community, we are very good at slotting these players in with the veterans, but now we have to make the decision of which players we acquire before it’s simply too late. If you liked Mike Evans last year, you would have been wise to grab him then (at an ADP of 27), because now he’s all the way up at sixth overall. If you like Cooper, get him now, even with that steep price – because it may only keep going up. Rookies and sophomores are arguably the most valuable assets in dynasty football, even without years of production, so make some sound investments to help your team grow.

Look out for the next piece, where we focus on veteran running backs (the Joseph Randles of the world).

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james simpson