Sunday Morning Huddle: Week One

George Kritikos

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Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game. Also, a “Number to Remember” will be provided that will center on a key statistic that will influence the game and your dynasty team.

Early Games

Indianapolis at Buffalo
Number to Remember (NTR) – 184

With Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks gone from the roster, their 184 targets from 2014 will be reallocated amongst the Colts’ receivers. Week one should help provide clarity to where those targets are distributed, especially against a defense as difficult as Buffalo.

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While Frank Gore is an interesting addition, the dynasty community is more interested in rookie Phillip Dorsett and his playing time relative to sophomore Donte Moncrief. This is where that aforementioned target number comes into play. How much do these two see from Andrew Luck early on?

Another year, another quarterback for the Bills. This time, it is Tyrod Taylor making his first start after four years in the league. He has blazing speed (4.51 forty yard dash) for the position so he should supplement his strong, yet erratic, arm with some nice rushing totals. This is the game where Taylor is likely to use every tool in an effort to keep Buffalo close.

Carolina at Jacksonville
NTR – 39%

Losing Kelvin Benjamin, while an inefficient receiver, also means losing 39% of last year’s passing touchdown total (9 of 23). With only three of those nine touchdowns coming from inside the red zone, the team will need to look for playmakers if they want to replace the lost production.

We know Devin Funchess will see an uptick in targets with the Benjamin injury, but what will that look like? Funchess struggled with consistency in college as drops and body catches plagued the latter part of his time at Michigan. Cam Newton is willing to spread the ball around so Funchess needs to be effective early.

There are enough Allen Robinson hype articles out there, so I will focus on T.J. Yeldon instead. Plenty of positive news has come out regarding Yeldon’s pass catching and blocking abilities, making him a true three down running back. What some see as happy feet, others regard as patience to wait for his blocking. With Star Lotulelei out, Yeldon has a chance to run rampant on this defense.

Kansas City at Houston
NTR – 42.5

Lost in the inept quarterback battle is the chance to watch premier sack artists Justin Houston (22) and J.J. Watt (20.5) go to work. Their combined sack total of 42.5 was better than 25 teams last year. Even for non-IDP owners, this will be a treat.

Everyone likes to cite the zero touchdown passes to wide receivers by Kansas City in 2014. Jeremy Maclin is here to change that narrative. He has managed double digit touchdowns twice before and while that is unlikely to happen with Alex Smith, Maclin did score 50% of his 36 career touchdowns in the redzone. Time to find out what Smith can do with a receiver more suited to his skillset.

After a rough opening part of training camp, rookie Jaelen Strong lived up to his surname in the preseason. Cecil Shorts is likely to start ahead of Strong, but Shorts excels in the slot so the rookie could play on the outside in three receiver sets. With Arian Foster out and the Chiefs rated the third toughest defense for fantasy running backs, Strong will be needed early on.

Seattle at Saint Louis
NTR – 0

To put it nicely, the Rams’ offensive line is unproven. With rookies Jamon Brown and Rob Havenstein, the team has zero career starts anchoring the right side of the line. Michael Bennett and Bruce Irvin are salivating to introduce them to the NFL.

With Jimmy Graham new in town, are the receivers left with table scraps? Not if Tyler Lockett, the third round draft choice, continues where he left off at Kansas State. The team is excited for his future and Lockett is capable of beating teams deep (4.40 forty yard time) or underneath (6.89 three cone) with his speed alone. Russell Wilson will ultimately decide the receiving pecking order.

I like the acquisition of new quarterback Nick Foles but Benny Cunningham is the player I will be watching. With Todd Gurley and Tre Mason sidelined, the pass catching and special teams aficionado is pressed into duty. Benny (without the jets) should be targeted as a check-down option often and could retain the receiving back job for the season.

Cleveland at New York Jets
NTR – 23 and 60

I know, two numbers but they go together. Starting running back Chris Ivory has 23 receptions for his career and the Browns allowed just 60 to running backs in 2014 (third fewest). Guess who isn’t going to give much help in the receiving game week one?

There is little to like in Cleveland and that’s not necessarily directed towards their football team. With Revis Island again in New York, slot man Andrew Hawkins could be called upon to lead the team in receptions. The small receiver is a departure from Josh McCown’s usual targets (read: tall), but Hawkins led the Browns in yards (824) and catches (63) last year. Oh, have you seen the other receivers?

With Geno Smith drinking his meals through a straw, FitzMagic returns once again. Ryan Fitzpatrick was second in the league in deep ball accuracy (52.6%), so rookie Devin Smith is feeling pretty good about his chances. Add in veterans Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker (who was 19th in yards per route run via PFF) to the mix and Fitzpatrick should once again pull a few tricks out of his hat.

Green Bay at Chicago
NTR – 10

In two starts last season against the Bears, Aaron Rodgers managed ten touchdowns, 26% of his total (38). He also completed over 70% of his passes and had 300 yards in each meeting. The Bears may have actually gotten worse in the secondary from 2014 until now…

Guess who scored four of those ten aforementioned touchdowns? If you guessed injured receiver Jordy Nelson, you would be correct. Add in averages of eight catches (on nine targets) and 130 yards to make a pretty big hole to fill in week one. I suspect Davante Adams will see some of that red zone work while a few deep shots go the way of Jeff Janis.

Trivia time: Who is the highest Bears receiver on the depth chart not on this week’s injury report? I am sure you guessed correctly with Josh Bellamy. Nope, not talking about him. Instead, the running game is likely to be front and center with Matt Forte and rookie Jeremy Langford answering the casting call. Langford had some nice runs in the preseason and as a former wide receiver, he could see some extended time running routes for the depleted passing game in what should be a shootout.

Miami at Washington
NTR – 35

Ryan Tannehill has increased his touchdown passes each of the first three season (12 to 24 to 27). Guess who gave up the most touchdown passes in 2014? Washington managed a whopping 35 pass touchdowns allowed and did so while seeing the second fewest passes (520) in the entire NFL.

Given all those touchdowns allowed, I like new acquisition Jordan Cameron to be a serious threat for a trip to the end zone. Injuries are all that have derailed him in years past (with honorable mention to the Browns’ offense), but Cameron did have over 900 yards and seven touchdowns just two years ago. With Davante Parker on the mend, he is the best chance to deliver inside the red zone.

All the hype is around rookie Matt Jones but people forget Alfred Morris has rushed for nearly 4,000 yards in his first three seasons alone. There is little pizzazz to Alf’s game with 22 of his 28 rushing touchdowns occurring in the red zone. Jones will likely take some snaps, particularly in the passing game, but Morris should repeat the 16.6 carries per game he had in 2014…even if his week one matchup presents a hurdle in the form of Ndamukong Suh.

Afternoon Games

New Orleans at Arizona
NTR – 20

The NFL had six teams give up at least 20 touchdowns to wide receivers in 2014, the Saints were one of them. With Keenan Lewis and Jairus Byrd already ailing, the outlook does not look good for the New Orleans Saints to stymie this trend in the first week. Calling all Cardinals!

While I was busy singing (and drafting) a little Nick Toon, Brandon Coleman decided to use that 6’6” frame to win the third receiver job. When you average a touchdown on over 20% of your college catches, you are pretty good in the red zone. Now add in 34” arms and the loss of Jimmy Graham to create Drew Brees’ new favorite option inside the 20 yard line.

There are a lot of Cardinals’ receivers but none have seen their hype train become a cross-country tour more so than sophomore John Brown. Staying at Carson Palmer’s house endeared him to the veteran, assuming he paid his half of the cable bill, but I am not one for anecdotal evidence. The speed is real (4.33 forty yard dash) but so are the tiny hands (8.5 inches) that helped lead to a poor catch rate in 2014 (47%). The jury is out.

Cincinnati at Oakland
NTR – 306.3

The combined yards the Raiders and Bengals gave up on the ground helped make them two of the four best matchups for running backs in 2014. Both teams made moves to upgrade along the front seven but this could quickly turn into a 1940’s football game.

The Bengals did little to their offensive skill positions so let’s switch to the defensive side of the ball. Not one for the combine crowd, rookie Paul Dawson was a tackling machine (one every five snaps!) in 2014 for TCU. While he may be a backup for the moment, Dawson could easily see time behind perennially injured A.J. Hawk or Ray Maualuga.

Latavius Murray! As excited as I am to see Amari Cooper in action, Murray is the bigger unknown. An athletic freak, his closest comparable profile on Mockdraftable was Adrian Peterson. While I don’t expect that kind of production, Murray has all the physical tools and the coaches’ trust to turn in a great season. This matchup could be the beginning.

Detroit at San Diego
NTR – 11.5

With the losses of Eddie Royal (to the Bears) and Antonio Gates (to suspension), the Chargers have an 11.5 target per game void to fill. Danny Woodhead and Keenan Allen return from injuries while Stevie Johnson is expected to have a larger role. With Ladarius Green also out, Phillip Rivers has a lot of decisions to make.

All the talk of passing belies the battle of rookie running backs. For Detroit, that involves former Cornhusker Ameer Abdullah. A few nice runs in the preseason and a workhorse career at Nebraska has the Motor City excited. While Joique Bell will be involved, Abdullah is expected to operate primarily between the twenties and in the passing game.

In the powder blue corner is Melvin Gordon. The first round pick had over 2,000 rushing yards last year at Wisconsin and despite some hiccups at training camp and in the preseason, he remains the best runner on the team and a player capable of turning things around. How he is spelled by Woodhead and Brandon Oliver is the remaining question.

Baltimore at Denver
NTR – 130

While no longer in Chicago, Marc Trestman could easily direct 130 passes to Justin Forsett, the same number Matt Forte saw last season. Unproven players at receiver and tight end may force the former “quarterback whisperer” to get inventive early on.

Starting opposite Steve Smith will be Kamar Aiken. When not stalking and sponsoring Aiken’s Pro Football Reference player page, I studied his 2014 season and saw a highly efficient receiver (9.9 CODE score, 2nd among WRs). He has the size (6’2”) and burst (74th percentile, h/t PlayerProfiler) to contribute while Breshad Perriman learns the offense.

The only major offensive change for the Broncos comes at the tight end position. While Owen Daniels is likely to have the bulk of the work, Virgil Green should get some playing time. Already a great blocker, Green has shown his pass catching acumen in the preseason and at Nevada (72 catches with a 13.0 yard per reception average). How this time share plays out starts here.

Tennessee at Tampa Bay
NTR – 0

Simply put, the number of career starts for the two quarterbacks in this game. Rarely do we see two quarterbacks make their debut against one another, much less the top two picks in the most recent NFL draft.

If you scan through my dynasty leagues, Marcus Mariota comes up quite frequently. The former Oregon Duck was insanely accurate, completing over two thirds of his passes in college while also showing his running ability (2,000+ yards) and a nose for the end zone with 134 total touchdowns. An inexperienced offense could limit him, but Mariota was impressive in preseason and should be a QB2 option in year one with upside to join the QB1 conversation very soon.

Jameis Winston is not the guy I want dating my fictional daughter but he is ready to shine as an NFL quarterback. The interceptions at Florida State were overblown, but he will likely throw a few bad passes as he adjusts to the speed of the pro game. If Mike Evans plays, it will help, but I expect a conservative offense early on, especially with Lovie Smith at the helm.

Sunday Night Game

New York Giants at Dallas
NTR – 1.5 and 4

The former is the combined passing touchdowns per game the Giants and Cowboys surrendered in 2014. The latter is the combined passing touchdowns per game the Giants and Cowboys threw in 2014. Why can’t the numbers be easy?!

Normally I don’t pick elite players but can Odell Beckham Jr come anywhere near his historic 2014? Some were (justifiably) picking the sophomore as the first overall dynasty asset. He only managed over 100 receiving yards and one touchdown per game…as a rookie.

Anyone can run behind the Dallas Cowboys offensive line. That’s the mantra dynasty owners heard all offseason. With Darren McFadden and Joseph Randle (no, not Christine Michael) slotted to see the majority of carries, that will be tested. If the passing game struggles, which it certainly could against the Giants, the Cowboys will have a primetime opportunity to make that mantra a law.

Monday Night Games

Philadelphia at Atlanta
NTR – 55

Not as statistic, 55 represents the Vegas over/under set for this game. It is the highest of the week and is reasonable considering the matchup of two high-powered offenses against two porous defenses.

Much like a summer camp, there are a lot of new kids mixed in with a few who decided to come back again. The cool kid though is newcomer DeMarco Murray. Philadelphia is a reasonable facsimile for the Dallas offensive line and Atlanta gave up 19 rushing touchdowns to running backs last year, worst in the NFL. If Ryan Mathews decides to horn in, it could impact Murray’s numbers, but the Eagles did lead the league in percent of rushing touchdowns in 2014 (with 63%).

I expect this to be the year of the Julio. Already accomplished, having twice averaged over 100 receiving yards per game in a season, Julio Jones now has Kyle Shanahan as his offensive coordinator. Shanahan’s best receiver since Andre Johnson, Julio could approach the 171 targets AJ had under Shanahan in 2008 and 2009. Good luck Byron Maxwell.

Minnesota at San Francisco
NTR – 4

The 49ers lost four players to retirement this offseason, including Chris Borland and Anthony Davis, who were both under 25 years old. Those sudden departures have hurt the team and will show up in this game as San Francisco will struggle with continuity.

30 years old and over 2,000 carries means a running back combusts (at least, that’s the urban legend). Unsavory behavior aside, Adrian Peterson has shown incredible feats throughout his career. The return from an ACL injury to nearly break the single season record stands out. While I will never count him out, I also sold any share I had of him this offseason. His performance will drive the team, even more than Teddy Bridgewater.

Very little to like here, but I have to choose someone. I have been (overly?) critical of Carlos Hyde since he entered the league and had a mixed rookie season. The high yards after contact (over two thirds) shows a determined back, but also correlates to a shorter career and lower yards per carry. Minnesota was the eighth most generous team to fantasy backs in 2014, but can the 49ers keep the game close enough to take advantage?

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