Weekly Twitter Observations
Each week I walk through the Twitterverse extracting some of the best commentary from trusted fantasy football minds. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of from trends, stats or analysis.
Camp Narratives
Reminder of past training camp narratives – in 2013 Geno Smith hadn’t thrown any INTs. In 2014 Kelvin Benjamin hadn’t dropped any passes.
— Fantasy Douche (@FantasyDouche) August 3, 2015
In the future, player ADPs will be entirely linked to training camp Vine videos.
— C.D. Carter (@CDCarter13) July 29, 2015
— Chet (@Chet_G) August 3, 2015
Just a reminder that a lot of the stories and reports coming out of training camp can be wildly overplayed and used to hype or detract from players. We sometimes overreact to news of a fantastic catch or a coach talking up a certain backup. Through Twitter every drop, fumble or interception is documented by reporters and fantasy owners quickly may discount a fantasy player after one practice or scrimmage. Don’t let historical performances and analysis be covered up by one comment stating Player X is going to rush for 3,000 yards this season. (Side note Chet’s hard line stances against any missteps in training camp always make me laugh).
There has been a lot of press and commentary on the Steelers second year receiver Martavis Bryant to date. People normally appear very high or cautiously pessimistic of the dynamic playmaker as seen from the below tweets.
Martavis Bryant is going to be a star this year for the #Steelers. He looks amazing. Absolutely has made big strides this offseason. #NFL
— Charles Robinson (@CharlesRobinson) July 27, 2015
I’m not saying Martavis will be a bust. But, I think you have to be concerned about a guy who has only been a deep threat, even in college.
— Kevin Cole (@Cole_Kev) July 28, 2015
Player who stood out today: second-year WR Martavis Bryant. Steelers have big plans for him, if he can keep it going in the right direction.
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) July 26, 2015
Byrant did not start until the seventh game of the season in 2014 and never played more than 60% of the offensive snaps throughout the regular season. Despite that he scored a touchdown nearly every third catch and provided the Pittsburgh offense with an additional weapon to torch opponents. This season, Martavis will continue to benefit from Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell drawing opposing defenses main attention providing him with plenty of opportunities for single coverage. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has already said the goal for the team is to score 30 points a game, so the upside appears to be available for Byrant. But what about Kevin’s comment regarding Martavis being nothing more than a deep threat? Fellow receiver Markus Wheaton has also been drawing a lot of praise and even his quarterback thinks Markus is going to be the Steelers’ “breakout player of the year.” I actually see no reason to disagree with the outlook and Bryant could definitely have weeks where one or two catches without a score is all he will be able to muster.
From a dynasty perspective, I was a little surprised to see where he falls across different rankings. Most commonly he is being ranked as a low end WR3 in 12 team leagues and even the DLF staff has him at number 36 overall. The Wheaton news will only work to deflate some of the hype for Bryant and his value may actually fall amongst fantasy owners. If you compare Martavis’ rank in dynasty to that of re-draft leagues, there is a wide margin in play as Byrant is coming off the board as a low end WR2. The potency of the offense and his age are not reasons to discount Bryant in dynasty so why the great divide? Bryant was logging more snaps than Wheaton towards the end of last season and I still would be surprised if that were to change moving forward. I fully expect Bryant to fall in the eight to nine touchdown territory this season and push between 900 to 1,000 yards. Other receivers like Torrey Smith, Michael Floyd, Davante Adams or Dorial Green-Beckham all rank lower for me in dynasty and I would definitely be looking to flip Bryant for any of them if possible.
Recent bias will likely cause most fantasy owners to expect all rookie wide receivers to perform like they did in 2014. While it does appear more and more receivers are coming in pro-ready, the transition is not an easy one. In the case of rookie receiver Nelson Agholor though, we may be looking at another instant contributor. So far the word out of training camp has been positive as seen from the below tweets
From the great @JimmyKempski: “Expect Nelson Agholor to produce immediately. Looks like the real deal.”: http://t.co/UIcSxuXkcz
— Nick Mensio (@NickMensio) July 31, 2015
Eagles Beat: ‘Very impressive’ WR Nelson Agholor ‘already better’ than competition http://t.co/yT5ghqtvHB #NFL #fantasyfootball
— 4for4.com Fantasy (@4for4football) August 5, 2015
The competition Nelson is going up against consists of fellow wideouts Riley Cooper and Josh Huff. Cooper was Pro Football Focus’ worst rated receiver last season and Huff is behind Algholor from a metric standpoint. It is still very early in the season and Nelson is still running with the second team, but it sounds like he is in a good position to start week one. In Chip Kelly’s offense, fantasy production will also be a little easier to come by. Jordan Matthews logged nearly 900 yards as a rookie in 2014 and that actually sounds like a solid projection for Agholor.
Sometimes usage and opportunity are all you need to have success in fantasy – that is why news from Cardinals camp this week on running back Andre Ellington made fantasy owners perk up.
Arians: Ellington to get 20 touches per game http://t.co/hpupZa3BQf
— Rotoworld Football (@Rotoworld_FB) August 2, 2015
The “workhorse” running back is something fantasy owners covet and possessing one provides security in a position that is the hardest to predict. Of course the news of Ellington’s role brought out skeptics as Evan Silva noted,
Can’t get behind Ellington in 3rd/4th. Think he’s big threat to be ineffective/break down at continued heavy usage. And weak TD outlook.
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) August 4, 2015
JJ Zachariason also published an article why he is not optimistic on Andre in 2015. Ellington was on a pace of 20 touches per game last year, though he only made it through 12 games before the team shut him down. He battled through a foot injury from week one on and even Andre admitted that “I wasn’t able to be myself.”
From a statistics perspective, it was a tale of two years for Ellington as Sigmund Bloom mentioned,
Andre Ellington averaged 5.5 yards per carry on 118 carries in 2013. Rest of team averaged 2.9 on 304 carries. Gotta be some kinda record
— Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) August 4, 2015
In his second season, that average dropped to 3.3 yards per carry and you can attribute a lot of that due to his injuries. Despite what was looked at as a horrible sophomore campaign, Ellington still finished as the 20th best running back in standards leagues playing just three quarters of a season. The potential is clearly there for Ellington to be an elite performer and currently falling around the 21st running back in dynasty I feel the risk of injury is already baked in. Personally I am not straying away from him at his current price due to his injury plagued 2014 season.
Fantasy Team Name of the Week
Millions of people play fantasy football and all approach this game we enjoy with different levels of intensity. Above all though you should be playing to have fun and that is why the perfect team name is so important. Share your favorite team names in the comment section below or hit me up on Twitter. Also, feel free to use the image provided here as well.
Martin Scoreseasy
Special call out to Pro Football Focus’ Premium Stats for providing a great tool to pull some of the data and information in this article.
Luke practically owns the Twitter machine at @FFGator
- Weekly Twitter Observations - April 2, 2016
- Weekly Twitter Observations - March 26, 2016
- Weekly Twitter Observations - March 11, 2016
