The Buffalo Quarterback Conundrum
The Buffalo Bills have a new Head Coach, a new offensive coordinator and one of the ugliest quarterback competitions in recent memory. Matt Cassel, EJ Manuel and Tyrod Taylor are vying for the week one starting spot and the negatives for each seem to outweigh the positives by a large margin. Determining which quarterback will actually win the starting job is likely even unknown by head coach Rex Ryan himself. Let’s take a closer look at the challengers and determine if any are relevant in dynasty leagues.
Matt Cassel
The Wanting Vet
Cassel is entering his eleventh season in the NFL and his experience alone would presume to give him the best shot at the starting gig. Being drafted in the seventh round by the Patriots in 2005, he sat behind Tom Brady for three seasons. Cassel got his opportunity to lead the Patriots in his fourth season after Brady was knocked out of the year during the first quarter of week one. He had a solid season and ended up getting traded to the Chiefs where in his second season with the team made it to the Pro Bowl. In 2012, the wheels fell off for Cassel has he accounted for 14 turnovers in five games and was benched in favor of Brady Quinn. Before being involved in the current quarterback mess, he also hung around with the Vikings for two seasons, ultimately proving unable to beat out Christian Ponder in year one and then breaking his foot and hitting the IR last year.
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
Cassel’s career completion percentage is below 60% and he has nearly as many turnovers as touchdowns. His most recent years have shown inconsistency and the inability to beat out other mediocre talents. After OTAs in June it was even thought Cassel would be cut after Rex Ryan was playing his second team defense against his starters to help the offensive’s confidence. He is still with the team of course and most recently pushed slightly ahead in the starting quarterback race. The experience Matt Cassel has on his competitors alone likely gives him the nod. More often than not he is likely making the right decisions but his skills are limiting him from finishing plays. If the coaching staff wants the safest option behind center to start the season, Cassel will be starting week one. But does he give them the best chance at winning?
EJ Manuel
The First Round Head Case
The Bills drafted EJ Manuel with the 16th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. Coming out of college, he had the look of a great quarterback. Tall, strong and good mobility were all deemed as positives for him. The only negatives were around his consistency and accuracy – things NFL coaches often times believe they can fix in a player. Though drafted in the first round, EJ was expected to learn behind Kevin Kolb. Kolb unfortunately suffered a severe concussion in the preseason thrusting Manuel into the fire. Manuel’s first season was also under first time Head Coach Doug Marrone, which likely contributed to his lack of development as a player. Manuel’s rookie season was rocky and he missed games during the year due to injury. In all, he had more turnovers than touchdowns, but still was given the starting job entering year two. Unfortunately, EJ continued to struggle in his sophomore campaign and was replaced after only four weeks and a 2-2 record by Kyle Orton. Orton finished out the season as the starter and Manuel’s progression as an NFL quarterback was once again halted.
Rex Ryan’s arrival in Buffalo was never going to help Manuel advance as a passer as Ryan is a defense centered, run-heavy coach. Manuel’s accuracy continues to be the focal point of his struggles and is a “tad behind” the other signal callers to date. Common descriptions of Manuel today are of a player uneasy with his surroundings and trying harder not to make mistakes than to actually succeed. When looking at EJ’s chances this season he does not have the experience of Cassel and does not possess the mobility upside of Tyrod Taylor, which likely leaves him in a no-win situation.
Tyrod Taylor
The Unknown Upside Play
Taylor was drafted in the sixth round of the 2011 draft by the Baltimore Ravens. While the Ravens brought him in to be part of their quarterback depth, most in the NFL assumed he would have made the switch to receiver or running back. Taylor was praised for his athleticism, but his decision making and erratic passing ability were huge knocks. He has sat behind Joe Flacco the last four seasons and had limited opportunities to even achieve playing time. Not surprisingly, Taylor’s lone touchdown score in a regular season contest came off a run rather than a pass.
Buffalo is likely the only spot in the NFL where Taylor would have a legitimate shot at the starting quarterback position. Taylor’s main weakness is accuracy and consistency, but those words have already been associated with Cassel and Manuel. Where Taylor has a leg up on his competition is his athletic running ability. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman was most recently in San Francisco where he managed another highly mobile quarterback in Colin Kaepernick. The thought that Taylor may be the easiest for Roman to incorporate into his offense is not that far a stretch. With his mobility and arm strength, he could also be the most creative quarterback being able to buy time with his legs and then simply chucking the ball down the field to a waiting Sammy Watkins. While Tyrod has barely what would be considered NFL experience, he has intangibles that likely make him more desirable than Manuel.
The Final Countdown
If you read this section’s title and immediately started singing the 1980’s hit by the band Europe, kudos to you. But seriously, what does this all mean for fantasy purposes? There are only five weeks until the start of the season and the clock is ticking on Ryan making a decision. My best guess is Cassel will start the season as the quarterback under center. I also feel like it is highly unlikely he remains in the driver seat for all 16 games. The Bills start off with the Colts, Patriots, at the Dolphins and Giants for their first four games and could easily be 1 – 3 or 0 – 4 at that point. If Cassel does struggle, I assume Manuel and/or Taylor get shots in relief efforts before one of them takes the reigns.
Unless something really unforeseen happens this preseason, owning any of the quarterbacks in fantasy is pretty much a wasted roster spot. In regards to the rest of the offense, Ryan has gone on record that the 2015 Bills will be a running team. I am not sure this is necessarily a good thing for LeSean McCoy owners though as the Bills had one of the worst run blocking units last season. The team did bring in new faces like Richie Incognito and drafted other potential replacements, but the upgrades and unfamiliarity along the line won’t equal new found success. Defenses will also not be scared by whoever is calling plays for the Bills meaning stacked boxes for McCoy. While I have no doubt he will log more than 300 touches this season, yards and scoring opportunities will be much harder to come by. All receiving options on the team will also struggle due to the quarterbacks’ inaccuracy issues. I actually see Watkins torturing fantasy owners like former Bills receiver Lee Evans who would sprinkle monster, multiple touchdown performances amongst weeks of minimal catches and yards. In the end, betting on any return on investment from the Bills skill position players in fantasy this season will turn up with you seeing snake eyes.
[/am4show]
Luke practically owns the Twitter machine at @FFGator
- Weekly Twitter Observations - April 2, 2016
- Weekly Twitter Observations - March 26, 2016
- Weekly Twitter Observations - March 11, 2016
