Early Summer Rookie Mock Draft (Round Three)

Jacob Feldman

conley

Summer has officially arrived and the NFL has entered into the closest thing it actually has to an offseason. We have now entered the six week “break” between OTAs and the start of training camp when teams and players aren’t allowed to have any formal contact. Don’t worry, this doesn’t mean we are taking a break from what we do. Instead, we are back with another rookie mock draft. If you have already completed your rookie mock drafts, then use it to help you evaluate your trade offers. If your draft is still approaching over the next few months, then I hope it will help you prepare for your summer draft.

If you’re unfamiliar with how our mock drafts work, here is the quick rundown. Our rules for the mock draft are as follows:

  • Standard PPR scoring with normal lineup requirements
  • Draft order is randomly generated and no trades are allowed
  • Draft the best player available without any consideration for team need or previous players drafted

Once the mock is complete, each drafter was asked to provide some comments about the player they drafted. In order to provide a second perspective on each selection, I will also provide some comments on each of the choices. From time to time we will disagree on a player, and that’s perfectly okay. There is no group think here at DLF and sometimes we get widely different opinions on players. I’ll be the first to admit that we, and especially me, will get a few of these players wrong. It happens to all of us.

In case you missed them, here are the previous rounds: First and Second

As is customary with the third round, it is time for everyone’s favorite fliers. In my opinion, the third round is where you go for upside. They don’t need to be elite players, but you want players who have the talent where they could be starters on your fantasy squad. Like most of our mocks, the third round is dominated by wide receivers and running backs. We continue to have just two quarterbacks drafted and just one tight end in our three round mocks. Let’s take a look at how it all shook out.

3.01 – Chris Conley, WR KC

Zach’s thoughts: After selecting two high upside players with my first and second round selections, I chose to take the player with the most open path to playing time with my final pick. Again, there were multiple options I liked when I was on the clock, but Conley seemed safest at this point. Many third round picks don’t end up as weekly fantasy starters, but Conley could pay off for the next couple years as a bye week fill in. I don’t necessarily expect huge things from him, especially with Jeremy Maclin, Jamaal Charles and Travis Kelce demanding a good share of Kansas City’s limited targets, but he was the player I felt had the highest probability of fantasy relevance of anyone remaining.

My thoughts: I really like this pick even if I disagree a little bit with the rationale behind it. Yes, Conley is likely to be starting very early in the season if not week one. However, I don’t think the fourth target for Alex Smith is going to be very fantasy relevant this season. This is especially true given Smith’s weak arm and inability to push the ball down the field. Why I like the Conley pick is for the long term. The upside Conley possesses is huge, especially once the Chiefs bring in a young talent at the quarterback position. I think in a few years there will be a new quarterback for the Chiefs and Conley will be his top target at the receiver position.

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3.02 – Mike Davis, RB SF

Ken’s thoughts: This is the part of the draft where I love to roll the dice on RB’s. You are more likely to hit on a later round RB who can jump in value due to the churn rate at the position in the NFL. Talent and opportunity are both important, and Davis has both in SF. Carlos Hyde is ahead of him and will probably be the starter, but after that he has only to pass an aging Reggie Bush and injured Kendall Hunter to find himself in the RB2 spot on a decidedly run-oriented team.

My thoughts: There are an awful lot of conditional statements when it comes to Davis. If he returns to his 2013 form. If the 49ers stay as run forced as before. If he can pass Hunter and Bush on the depth chart. If Hyde struggles or gets hurt. There’s just way too many things which need to go perfect for Davis to make an impact. I understand why people might be tempted, but the 49ers have drafted a running back almost every year for the last decade. I think Davis is just depth and that’s about it.

3.03 – Matt Jones, RB WAS

Jarrett’s thoughts: Jones is a guy that has 3 down potential, which is pretty good for a 3rd round pick in my opinion. He has underrated inside running ability, is an able pass blocker and is a good pass catcher. He has good size at 6’2″, 231 lbs. He has had injury issues and an established started in front of him, but I believe he will earn snaps as the third down back in the short term and could push Alfred Morris in the long term.

My thoughts: I think Jones is one of the most undervalued rookies right now, unless of course you have the FFGhost in your league. If you do, Jones is likely off the board in the early to middle second round! It wouldn’t surprise if that becomes more of the norm by the time training camp gets underway. There is already talk of Jones eating into Morris’s workload on more than just third downs. I think Jones will be a player who starts a quick rise as the hype train builds. I think it is going to be more of a committee than people expect in DC, and Jones just might take over at some point.

3.04 – Justin Hardy, WR ATL

Eric O’s thoughts: This pick was influenced by his destination. With Roddy White aging and Harry Douglas now a Tennessee Titan, there is a large void at WR3 for the Matt Ryan led Atlanta Falcons. Hardy is only 6′ and 192 pounds but has the aggressiveness and tenacity of Matthew Dellavedova, the pint sized point guard of the Cleveland Cavaliers. Once Hardy gets into an NFL weight room and puts a little bit of man muscle on, he should find a role in this offense in a year or two as a sure handed slot receiver.

My thoughts: I really like Hardy as a player because it is rare to find anyone who works as hard as he does to become the best they can be. He’s a classic overachiever, which is great in some ways but worries me in others. While there is some room for improvement still, I think the amount of growth he can do is fairly limited. This means his ceiling is a little lower than most. He should make an impact right away this year as a WR3/WR4 in fantasy leagues, but I think that’s where he will stay. When it comes time for White to move on, I think the Falcons find someone else to fill his shoes and Hardy will stay in the slot.

3.05 – Josh Robinson, RB IND

Jeff B’s thoughts: Robinson was one of my favorite running backs during the college football season, and I thought he would be a Day 2 pick during the NFL draft. He didn’t test well at the NFL Combine, but he was never going to wow anybody with his athleticism. He’s a pure downhill runner that was drafted into an ideal situation where he can learn from Frank Gore, one of the best pure downhill runners the NFL has seen in the last decade. Beyond that, he’ll be taking handoffs from Andrew Luck for years to come. In the mid 3rd, I’ll take that kind of upside any day.

My thoughts: The situation is fairly good for Robinson, but I just don’t see an NFL talent when I look at him. He’s very much a straight ahead rusher with very little speed or wiggle to his game. I think he is just a guy who gets what is blocked for and can move the pile if needed. To me this makes him a short yardage specialist and very little else in the NFL. He might be playing on Luck’s team, but I don’t think he’ll be taking very many handoffs from him on Sundays. He doesn’t bring enough of a skill set to the table to be a primary back.

3.06 – Sammie Coates, WR PIT

Breeze’s thoughts: I suck at darts but when I play I’m aiming at the bullseye. The same applies here. In the middle of the 3rd I’m gonna shoot for the stars and Coates is the definition of that. A few years ago Coates would not have lasted this long but the bad taste of “raw athletic freak” receiverss is still in everyone’s mouth. Coates struggles in the most vital parts of being an NFL WR, running good routes and catching the ball. Maybe he is the next Cordarrelle Patterson, Stephen Hill or Justin Hunter. Or maybe something clicks or NFL quality coaches develop him. Point is I love the upside and the downside of picking him at 3.06 is almost zero.

My thoughts: This is the kind of swing for the fences pick I love in the third round. From a physical, athletic standpoint, Coates is one of the best receivers in this draft class. He has the size, speed, and athletic ability to be a top flight receiver in the NFL. What he doesn’t have is any of the skills to play the position of a receiver. He can’t run very many routes, he fights with the ball instead of catching it, and he struggles when it comes to tracking the ball in the air. If the Steelers can fix those issues, he could turn into a top receiver. Most likely he’ll be out of the NFL in a few years, but the upside is definitely there and worth a shot at a middle third round price tag.

3.07 – Kenny Bell, WR TB

Jeff M’s thoughts: Destined to be a team’s WR2 (at best), Bell landed in about as perfect of a situation as he could. With an aging Vincent Jackson, who carries a $12 million cap hit in the final year of his deal next season, in front of him, Bell has a fairly clear path to an opportunity to start. If he can prove his mettle as a situational deep threat this year, it isn’t too farfetched to envision him taking the top off defenses for Mike Evans and company in 2016.

My thoughts: It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest of Bell is lined up across from Evans with Jameis Winston throwing him the ball in 2016. Bell doesn’t have the talent to be the top target for a team, but he does have the ability to be a great complement to someone like Evans. Jackson is getting expensive and starting to lose a few steps due to age. It wouldn’t surprise me if Jackson slides inside a bit this year with Bell taking over on the outside in three wide receiver sets. I think Bell is in line for a major increase in value over the next year.

3.08 – Jeremy Langford, RB CHI

My thoughts: I was really hoping Coates or Bell were going to slide to me, but I’m pretty happy with Langford as a consolation prize. Matt Forte is still an elite fantasy running back, but he isn’t getting any younger. Forte is entering the last year of his contract and who knows what will happen in the future for the Bears. There is a chance Langford could be the heir to the throne. Some are probably wondering about Ka’Deem Carey, but I’ve never been very impressed with him and the Bears don’t seem to be either.

Langford isn’t exceptional at any one part of his game. However, Langford is very good at just about everything. He has enough speed, agility, size, power and everything else you want in a running back to be successful. In addition to all of that, he has the ability to play in the passing game, both as a receiver and as a blocker. He could be the backup this year and the chance to start in future years. He’s well worth a pick in the third.

3.09 – Cameron Artis-Payne, RB CAR

Eric B’s thoughts: My strategy at this point in my rookie drafts if to try to find a guy who could potentially be productive a couple games a year. In a very shallow backfield, I would expect Artis-Payne to be a starter in one or two games this year. If I get that from him this year and next, I’m thrilled with the pick. Anything else is gravy.

My thoughts: At this point in the draft there isn’t a whole lot left. It is down to throwing darts and hoping for some injuries or a whole lot of lucky breaks for a player to turn out. When it comes to hoping for an injury, picking the guy who could end up behind Jonathan Stewart is a pretty safe gamble. I’m not sure Artis-Payne would get the first crack at snaps if Stewart did go down, but there is a chance. I don’t think Artis-Payne would be anything more than a back end RB2 as a starter, but it is still something.

3.10 – Rashad Greene, WR JAC

Doug’s thoughts: He has good hands, runs good routes and played in a pro-style offense in college. He goes to a young team on the rise with an excellent head coach. He will get an opportunity for playing time. Yes, there are a lot of talented wideouts in Jacksonville, but I think Greene has a chance to push his way up the heap. I think he can generate a lot of targets and become a PPR beast, in the same vein as a Wes Welker type.

My thoughts: Greene is a very underrated talent in this year’s draft class. He has the hands and talent to be a very good NFL receiver, but his athleticism might limit his ceiling just a little bit. His situation might limit his ceiling even more though. With Allen Robinson locked in as the top receiver and Julius Thomas in the fold as well now, it is going to be difficult for Greene to be a meaningful fantasy target on a bad offense even if he can surpass all of the other young receivers currently on the roster. Ultimately I think Greene is going to be a better NFL player than a fantasy player.

3.11 – DeAndre Smelter, WR SF

Rob’s thoughts: One of my favorite stashes in this year’s draft class, DeAndre Smelter is the ideal swing for the fences pick late in rookie drafts. The former baseball player was productive when given opportunity at Georgia Tech, and despite limited experience he was able to physically dominate ACC opponents when he was on top of his game. He’s admittedly a project, and more sizzle than steak at this juncture, but late in rookie drafts I’d rather gamble on ceiling than settle on the mundane talents that tend to inundate rounds three and four.

My thoughts: I agree whole heartedly with Rob on this one. Smelter is a great long term stash in the late third round. He is ideal in leagues where you have a taxi squad. After tearing his ACL last year, there is a chance he could spend the season on the PUP list and then IR. If Smelter can come back to 100% from his injury, whether it is 2015 or 2016, he could add some much needed talent to a mostly aging or underwhelming 49ers receiving group. There are a lot of holes in Smelter’s game as well, but that is why he’s still available in the late third round.

3.12 – Tre McBride, WR TEN

Eric D’s thoughts: At 3.12 it might not be fair to be upset about being “sniped,” but I was all set to take DeAndre Smelter when Rob Leath plucked him out of my hands. While McBride wasn’t my first choice here, I really liked him pre-draft and think he can produce at the NFL level. Despite almost going undrafted, McBride is more ready to contribute than many of the WRs drafted ahead of him. He exhibited exceptional body control and strong hands in college, but will have a lot of competition for playing time in Tennessee. He will likely have to play on special teams in order to stick to an NFL roster.

My thoughts: McBride is a very interesting pick. He is a small school prospect with great hands, but he doesn’t play with as much speed and agility as he showed at the combine. There are a lot of questions about how well he will transition to the NFL. As if there weren’t enough question marks already, the Titans have an offense in flux with lots of young receivers waiting to show what they can do. I think the chances are slim McBride emerges as a fantasy asset, but there is a chance.

That is it for the Early Summer mock draft. I’ll be back with one more in depth look once training camp gets underway. This break in the NFL calendar is a great time to give your team a solid evaluation and figure out if you’re a true contender or rebuilding. Then you need to make some moves to help you in whatever direction you are going.

Good luck!

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jacob feldman