Summer Sleeper: Miami Dolphins

Jeff Miller

summersleeper

This is the first entry in our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series where DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

  • Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
  • Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
  • Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going give you the likes of mainstream sleepers like Allen Robinson or C.J. Anderson, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Alfred Morris is going to spring up.  Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

Dion Sims TE, Miami Dolphins

With an ADP of “who?” I would categorize Sims as a Super Deep Sleeper. Maybe that isn’t fair. How about Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Deep Sleeper? Before you get to scoffing, let me lay six words and a number followed by a period on you: Jordan Cameron has had approximately 27 concussions. OK, it’s actually three in the last two years.

In the event Cameron is unfortunate enough to suffer another injury to his gray matter, somebody will need to play tight end. Enter my muse for the day, Dion Sims.

Still only 24, the massive (6’5”, 265 lbs) tight end came out of Michigan State in 2013 with very little production but plenty of talent. Lauded for his soft hands, ability to use his bulk to box out defenders, quick for his size 40 (4.75) and physics defying 35 inch vertical (two inches higher than the 45 pound lighter Amari Cooper), Sims has the potential to be a low-end TE1. Unfortunately, that potential remains untapped.

Playing alongside the athletically superior and far more polished Charles Clay, Sims became the Dolphins blocking tight end. While he has succeeded in the role, I can’t help but wonder what would happen if his opportunities were expanded?

A glance at Sims Pro Football Focus’ grades reveal Sims is at least mid-pack in all of the important receiving categories. Looking purely at output, he scored 1.79 PPR points per target last season. Clay managed 1.63. This is a rather imperfect metric due to the way some tight ends are deployed, but it has some merit, as seven of the top 12 tight ends in fantasy scoring last year fall in to the top-12 of this category as well. Some extrapolation using the above figure reveals Sims point/target pace would have had him as the TE12 if he matched Clay’s 84 targets.

I’m keenly aware that this is all fuzzy math and conjecture. With that said, it is just one of a number of signs pointing to Sims being more than capable of stepping in should Cameron go down. I don’t think nine or 10 points per game is out of reach, and would certainly expect him to slot in as a top-18 option.

Here’s the kicker: Cameron’s deal is structured in such a way that there is a significant chance he will be a free agent in 12 months. The two-year deal has a $4.5 million cap hit this season, while he’d count a whopping $9.5 million against the cap in 2016. Per Rotoworld, “Cameron’s $7.5 million 2016 base salary doesn’t become fully guaranteed until the second day of the new league year.”

Part of me wants to believe Miami let Clay walk then signed Cameron to such a deal because they think Sims could step into the role at some point. Only entering his third season, he is certainly still improving at a position where the learning curve has proven time and time again to be rather steep. I really don’t think any of this is too farfetched, even if it is going to require a lot of “ifs” to turn into “dids.”

When it comes down to it, is Sims worth a roster spot in a 12-team league? Absolutely not. But in deeper leagues or if you want Cameron insurance, I wouldn’t quibble with anybody snagging him off the wire. Tight end premium leagues may be a different story. I just added him just such a situation (14-team, 1.5 PPR for TE’s) for the princely sum of $1 out of my $200 blind bidding budget. I hate to bet on a player having a concussion, but if it happens, I’ll be positioned rather well.

Open your hearts and minds to the idea of Dion Sims being sort of ownable. Or at least don’t yell at me when my crazy super deep nutso sleeper doesn’t pan out.

[/am4show]

jeff miller