Dynasty Trading Post: Rookie Fever Edition

Eric Burtzlaff

tradingpost

With the NFL draft over, Rookie fever is in full effect and the dynasty trade market is moving all of over the place. If you’ve read Jeff Miller’s Rookie Draft pick study, you likely already know this. If you haven’t read it, please go check it out right away. This is the time of year where statistically your rookie players and draft picks are worth the most. This edition will focus on assessing those values and highlighting a few of the more interesting rookie trades I’ve seen cross my timeline. I will give my very quick take on most of the trades and focus on a few trades that I think deserve a bit more discussion.

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I prefer the Kevin White and Jaelen Strong side of this deal especially if you are in a re-build situation. White could develop into a top 5 wide receiver over the next 5 years and has immense upside. While you are trading away a “sure-thing” in Amari Cooper’s route running, I want to gamble a bit on a guy I think has all the tools to be a top 5 receiver. Also, Strong isn’t just a throw-in. He reminds me of an Anquan Boldin type WR2 NFL player, who I think landed in an excellent situation with the Texans.

This trade boils down to Amari Cooper + Allen Robinson for Odell Beckham, Jr. Give me the OBJ side of this one pretty handily.

2QB leagues and more specifically superflex are my personal favorite formats of Dynasty. I love the increase in value of the QB and brings it back as a valuable fantasy commodity. I view Carter as a throw-in in this trade so let’s just ignore that portion. Gordon and Parker are pretty much the 1.04 and 1.05 in every draft and will likely be the 1.06 and 1.07 in a 2QB league. I’d anticipate Winston to go 1.01 and Mariota to go 1.03. With that being said, I’ve seen Mariota go before Winston in a few superflex drafts (and rookie drafts). It’s become sort of a pick’em from what I’ve seen. I personally don’t own any shares of Mariota and likely won’t due to how much I dislike his landing spot. I view landing in Tennessee as a “breakout or bust” landing spot, so I’ll be investing my QB picks in superflex draft elsewhere. There is RG3/Russell Wilson upside in Mariota, however. He will have a built-in floor and I’d expect Tennessee to be playing from behind almost all-season. Unfortunately, the hit rate of the mobile QB has been historically pretty low. I’ll be playing the odds and sticking with Winston. Alright, now to the trade, here’s how I break this one down: 1.06 + 1.07 + Free Agent (Carter) for 1.12 (Ingram) + 1.09 + 1.03 Even with my bias towards Mariota, I easily prefer the Mariota side of the deal.

This is a pure handcuff deal, which I generally hate. I understand why you do it, but I see so many uncompetitive teams who waste a roster spot on a handcuff for a couple of years. I’ll focus this deal on telling you to be realistic with where your team is going this year, and build your roster around that. If your team isn’t winning this year, it will only help you if your starter gets injured and you end the year in a worse spot. Give me the Vereen side just on the basis of wasting 2 roster spots on the Raven’s running situation. Not to mention, I really like the new found fantasy-reliability that Shane will find in his new situation.

This one is a blockbuster in moving Odell Beckham Jr for Brandin Cooks, Breshad Perriman, and Devin Funchess. Much like many of the players currently being traded, people seem to love or hate them. Funchess and Perriman are the two of the more polarizing players of this rookie class. With Perriman, the Torrey Smith comparisons seem to be scaring away a large percentage of the dynasty community. While Funchess’ comps to Kelvin Benjamin are doing exactly the same thing. Clearly, the person on the giving side of OBJ sees the best possible in all 3 of Cooks, Perriman, and Funchess. I really like the OBJ side of this deal. A lot would have to pan out correctly for this deal to be profitable for the Cooks side.

Two future 1sts for Perriman seems like a lot for him. I do know there are a lot of owners VERY high on him. If you have him in a league and aren’t that high on him, I’d shop to see if you can get a similar deal.

Another OBJ trade! Give me the OBJ side but this one is pretty close for me.  

A pretty crazy trade and seems like just passing assets around, but give me the 2 studs side of the deal with Demaryius and Charles.

Todd Gurley reminds me of Sammy Watkins last season just at a different position. Both were/are considered to be the type of talent that come out of college every 10 years. Watkins didn’t fully pan out last season with the Bills and their revolving door of QBs. In the same vein, there are a ton of questions about Gurley’s health and people are opting for the safer NFL-ready Amari Cooper at the 1.01. It’s fitting to see them traded straightup this off-season. I think both Cooks and Watkins straightup for Gurley are perfectly reasonable and actually wouldn’t likely be possible if that was just the “1.01”. As your picks turn into real names, they tend to gain value and this is an excellent example of that.

As I mentioned in the beginning of the article, I view now as the time to sell rookie assets and picks for far more than they are worth. Rookie hype is out there, and your job will be to find the guys willing to vastly overpay for rookies. Also, remember that the blurb hype-train is going to be coming for pretty much every rookie in the off-season. Walking the line is very important this time of year. Targeting your guys is important in the drafts as much as targeting the players in your league who will pay a small fortune for a shot at your 1.08 pick.

Walk the line and trust your instincts.

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