Projecting the Projections

Nathan Powell

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There are a lot of smart and hard working draftniks in the #DraftTwitter community. I am not one of those guys who scout every position or can project who will go where in the NFL draft 12 months before the draft. There are two things that make these way too early mocks beneficial to the dynasty community.

  • More and more dynasty owners are valuing draft capital at a premium in their rookie dynasty rankings, so having an educated guess on those opinions is good to get you a step ahead of the game.
  • Devy leagues are becoming more and more popular, while many players in devy leagues use their own film watching/metrics to help their drafting, knowing where most people have them being selected in the NFL draft could be very beneficial .

Also, a couple of disclaimers:

  • While a lot of these projections will be right or somewhere close to it, injuries, suspensions and of course players staying in school can throw a wrench into things.
  • While most of these mocks will have players/teams connected, I’m much more interested in where in the draft they are being selected, rather than if where they are going would be a good situation.

Christian Hackenberg QB, Penn State

Ryan Ratty: 1.01
Josh Norris: 1.07
Matt Miller: 1.05
Dan Kadar: 1.08

Connor Cook QB, Michigan State

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Ryan Ratty: 1.05
Josh Norris: 1.12
Matt Miller: 1.16
Dan Kadar 1.09

Rashard Higgins WR, Colorado State

Ryan Ratty:1.10
Josh Norris: 1.25
Matt Miller: N.A.
Dan Kadar: 1.24

Jared Goff QB, California

Ryan Ratty: 1.12
Josh Norris: 1.15
Matt Miller: 1.19
Dan Kadar: N.A.

Marquez North WR, Tennessee

Ryan Ratty:1.14
Josh Norris: 1.21
Matt Miller: N.A.
Dan Kadar: N.A.

Ezekiel Elliott RB, Ohio State

Ryan Ratty:1.16
Josh Norris:1.26
Matt Miller: 1.04
Dan Kadar:1.11

Cardale Jones QB, Ohio State

Ryan Ratty: 1.17
Josh Norris: 1.09
Matt Miller: 1.12
Dan Kadar:1.06

Cody Kessler QB, USC

Ryan Ratty: 1.18
Josh Norris 1.02
Matt Miller: N.A.
Dan Kadar: N.A.

Tyler Boyd WR, Pittsburgh

Ryan Ratty:1.20
Josh Norris: N.A.
Matt Miller:1.32
Dan Kadar:1.29

Gunner Kiel QB, Cincinnati

Ryan Ratty: 1.26
Josh Norris: N.A.
Matt Miller: N.A.
Dan Kadar: N.A.

Laquon Treadwell WR, Ole Miss

Ryan Ratty: 1.29
Josh Norris: 1.13
Matt Miller: 1.10
Dan Kadar: N.A.

De’Runnya Wilson WR, Mississippi State

Ryan Ratty: N.A.
Josh Norris: 1.20
Matt Miller: N.A.
Dan Kadar: N.A.

Derrick Henry RB, Alabama

Ryan Ratty: N.A.
Josh Norris: 1.22
Matt Miller: 1.27
Dan Kadar: 1.14

Corey Clement RB, Wisconsin

Ryan Ratty: N.A.
Josh Norris: 1.30
Matt Miller: N.A.
Dan Kadar: N.A.

Josh Doctson WR, TCU

Ryan Ratty: N.A.
Josh Norris: 1.31
Matt Miller: N.A.
Dan Kadar: N.A.

D’haquille Williams WR , Auburn 

Ryan Ratty: N.A.
Josh Norris: N.A.
Matt Miller: 1.26
Dan Kadar: 1.16

Devontae Booker RB, Utah

Ryan Ratty: N.A.
Josh Norris: N.A.
Matt Miller: 1.29
Dan Kadar: N.A.

Corey Robinson WR, Notre Dame

Ryan Ratty: N.A.
Josh Norris: N.A.
Matt Miller: 1.31
Dan Kadar: N.A.

Consensus First Rounders

Christian Hackenberg

After one of the most impressive freshman seasons in recent memory, Hackenberg had a yearlong sophomore slump playing in an offense with a subpar offensive line and devoid of weapons. All four mockers have Hackenberg going in the top eight overall picks. For that to be the case, Hackenberg will need to have a big rebound in his junior campaign. As a top eight pick, Hackenberg would likely go in the early-mid second round of rookie drafts of one quarterback leagues and will likely be a top four overall pick in superflex/2QB drafts like Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota were this year.

Connor Cook

In a bit of a surprise, Cook stayed at Michigan State for his senior year, despite the fact that many would have had him as the QB3 in 2015 NFL draft. Cook will enter the NFL at the age of 23, which is at least a small bump down for me. Cook is an intriguing prospect and his senior year and third year as a starter will show his true colors. I think Cook will likely a late second/early third round rookie draft pick in one quarterback leagues, and a late first in superflex/2QB drafts.

Ezekiel Elliott

Elliott was impressive for the Buckeyes in their National Championship run in 2015. Elliott is projected as the one of the top two backs off the board for all four mockers. If this holds true, Elliott will be a lock top five pick in dynasty rookie drafts in 2016.

Cardale Jones

Jones had one of the most amazing stretches of games to start a career in NCAA history. Jones started three games for the Buckeyes last season, starting with a win in Big Ten Championship Game and winning a pair of playoff games to claim the NCAA title over Oregon. This impressive run has NFL draftniks foaming at the mouth, but there’s still a chance that Jones doesn’t even win the starting job for week over over JT Barrett. Jones is a fun prospect to watch, but I’m going to wait to see a few more games before locking him in as a first round pick. With the first round pedigree, I’d expect Jones to challenge Hackenberg for QB1 in 2016 rookie drafts.

Other Notes and Observations 

In the devy community, many have Laquon Treadwell ranked as their WR1 in Devy leagues, and even 1.01 overall, despite tearing his ACL that cut his sophomore season short. Where Treadwell goes in the NFL draft will show us how worried, if at all, teams are about his ability to stay healthy. If he goes top 16 in the NFL draft as a pair of the mockers projected, it will be hard to pass him up at 1.01 in rookie drafts next year.

Rashard Higgins put up video game numbers in the 2014 season, catching 96 passes for 1750 yards and 17 touchdowns. For scouts who put a premium on production, a high draft selection will give validity to Higgins’ numbers, even if they were put up against subpar competition at Colorado State.

Derrick Henry has been a truckload of a human being since stepping on the Alabama campus. Henry is mocked in the first round by three of the four mockers. Alabama rarely makes one of its backs a workhorse, but Henry has that ability and will likely serve that role at the next level.

Tyler Boyd is another player valued more highly by the devy community than these mock drafters. Boyd is projected to be drafted in the latter third of the NFL draft’s first round, while many in the devy community have Boyd as a top two receiver in the 2016 draft.

De’Runnya Wilson is a player with off field concerns after being arrested earlier this off-season. I put a lot of stock into draft capital NFL teams are willing to spend on players with these types of concerns, as well as those with a history of injuries. If a player is drafted highly, like Dorial Green-Beckham was in 2015, it alleviates some of the concern, because it shows a team is confident that the player will overcome their risks.

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nathan powell
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