Searching for Consistent Greatness: Tight Ends, Part One

James Simpson Posted On May 29, 2015

gronk

It is fair to say I’m not ‘about that tight end life.’ Much like quarterbacks in any standard league, I feel like it is beneficial to bypass the position and instead focus on stocking up in places where I can win big – running back and receiver. There are, however, two exceptions that are impossible to ignore: Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham. Check out the top tight end scorers since they burst onto the scene in 2011:

te1

Before Graham and Gronk, no tight end had topped 300 PPR fantasy points. If your dynasty goal is to build the ultimate team to win championships, one of these two is a requirement. They are studs where it’s hard to find them. I knew they were dominant on a yearly basis, but this study allowed me to look into their weekly finished and see just how amazing they are in comparison to every other tight end. Before I dove into the weekly scoring, I thought it right to list some views on the position:

Tight ends (as a whole) score fewer points than other positions, so I value them accordingly (the fourth most important)
Outside of Gronkowski and Graham, it is hard to predict who will excel from year-to-year
My preferred strategy is to pair one or two ‘breakout potential’ second/third year players with a savvy veteran like Antonio Gates or Heath Miller
I avoid rookie tight ends (or at least never rely on them in a starting lineup)

I wasn’t sure how much of this was actually valid, and how much simply came from my own experiences; but that was part of what this study helped me discover. How far ahead of everyone else are the top two? Who has played well in a small sample size? Which players are worth waiting for? I wanted answers to all of these questions.

The Method

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I categorize a top 12 weekly player as a ‘1’ and player who placed between 13 and 24 as a ‘2’. While placing in the 24 is fine, difference makers get in the top 12 often when they play. I began by working out how many points, on average, it takes to be a ‘1’ or a ‘2’ at tight end by going back through every fantasy gameweek from 2012-14.

TE1: 10.8
TE2: 6.2

Clearly, these numbers are extremely low in comparison to the positions we have covered so far. In fact, a score of 6.2 from a running back would barely scrape them into the top 50 in any given week and for a wide receiver it wouldn’t come close. A top 24 tight end score may make a slight difference, but unless your starter gets in that top 12, does it really matter if you have the TE13 or the TE24? The next stage of the research involved taking the tight ends in the ADP data and calculating how many times they placed in each of the categories over the last three years in games they played. I then filtered them by highest and lowest percentages in each category, and outlined them below.

Notes:

Data was taken from FFToday.com (http://fftoday.com/stats/playerstats.php)
PPR scoring
Playoff games were not included

Key:

GP – Number of games played
TE1/2 – Number of games with 6.2+ points
TE1 – Number of games with 10.8+ points
TE2 – Number of games with between 6.2 and 10.8 points
% – Percentage of games placing in each category

The numbers to focus on when looking at each list are highlighted (green = good, red = bad).

te2

Well, this is a surprise. Travis Kelce at the top? After missing his rookie year, he burst on to the scene with a 67-862-5 line. He provided a very consistent floor in 2014, but will need more involvement in 2015 to reach expectations (he had fewer than five catches in 12 of his 16 games).
Some of these trusty veterans are not too far away from the big guns. Need an easy 6-10 points? Don’t be afraid to rely on the older players like Heath Miller, Jason Witten and Antonio Gates.
Jermaine Gresham and Larry Donnell stand out on the list, but we must remember this is for scoring only 6.2 points or more: the TE1 and superstar weeks will be more valuable.

te4

On the off chance your league allows you to start four tight ends, Ladarius Green wouldn’t have been worthy of your ‘TE4’ spot last year. For all of our hope and expectation, he finished as the TE52
What do you do with Vernon Davis? 2013 was great, but after a TE1 performance in the first game of 2014 and a TE2 in the second, he didn’t top six points in any game for the rest of the year. At his price, I might gamble on a veteran resurgence.
Coby Fleener had a TE7 yearly finish in 2014, but he scored 72.7 of his 176.4 points in just three games (41%) and only had five top 12 games on the year. Deception!

te5

This is where the top two start to separate themselves. More than three quarters of the time, Gronkowski and Graham score over 10.8 points
There is almost a 50% difference between Gronkowski at the top and Donnell at the bottom.
With the drafting of Maxx Williams, Dennis Pitta took a hit, but how effective will Williams be in his rookie year? The big ‘if’ with Pitta is his health, but if you have a spare spot right at the end of the roster he could excel when back on the field.
Kyle Rudolph was touchdown-dependent early on in his career until injuries slowed him down and has only ever gone over 69 yards in a game one time. But now he has a superstar quarterback and I like his chances to improve on his numbers.

te6

Gavin Escobar actually scored almost half (21.5) of his 43.5 points last year in one game.
It is interesting to see Jordan Cameron on this list. Like many tight ends, he was a slow starter and did nothing in 2012 despite taking part in games. However, in his strong 2013, he was a TE1 in nine games out of 15 played (60%).
Tyler Eifert is still being drafted as a top ten tight end, ahead of some more established players. This year he must prove his worth.
Eifert and Zach Ertz haven’t exactly lived up to their early-round 2013 draft selections, and have some making up to do. How long do we stick with them?

te7

Kelce was in great company on the top 24 list, but if he doesn’t step up his game next year he will drift into a group of serviceable tight ends, but not ones you want to spend a high startup pick on.
Dwayne Allen has never gone over 16.4 points. Will he have the upside while he plays in tandem with Fleener?
Jordan Reed was held out of the end zone in 2014, and has yet to put together a full season of staying healthy. However, I believe that Robert Griffin III will bounce back and Reed could be a beneficiary of that.

te8

I love the contrast on this list. Gronkowski and Graham don’t have TE2 weeks because they never get held to fewer than 10.8 points. Virgil Green doesn’t have TE2 weeks because he never scores over 6.2
Four of Niles Paul’s six relevant fantasy games were the first four of 2014. He scored 49.3 of his 95.7 points in the year in the first three games of the year.

Check back tomorrow as we go through the rookies, chart out the “superstar weeks” and do a TE/WR comparison.

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James Simpson

Writer and Editor at Dynasty League Football

The great Russell Wilson once said: "the separation is in the preparation". James shares the same sentiment when it comes to dynasty success. Do the research, watch a ton of football and be relentless about building what you view to be the most talented team. Question everything, be open-minded and learn lessons every day.

As well as editing for DLF, James writes for Sky Sports and can be found on Twitter at @JS_Football