The Dynasty Doctor: Week 16 Injury Report

Scott Peak Posted On December 28, 2015

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Editor’s Note: Injuries are a huge part of winning and losing each year in fantasy leagues. Staying abreast of injury situations is key, as knowing what to expect from your players health-wise in the short term can help you make educated decisions in managing your team. Lucky for us, we have a Doctor in the house. Dr. Scott Peak is an ABPN board certified neurologist and neuro-oncologist. He is also a dynasty football addict and a Senior Writer for Dynasty League Football. He’s excited to lend his expertise in medicine with hopes he may help the DLF Team and its followers better understand medical conditions and injuries that may impact NFL players and dynasty football owners.

If you have a question for The Dynasty Doctor, just click here. Please remember The Dynasty Doctor is geared towards questions regarding medical science, injuries to players and their collective impact in fantasy football. Stay tuned each week as we’ll post his thoughts each and every Tuesday.

Matt Forte, RB CHI

Forte left the game with a back injury. It doesn’t sound serious. He felt his removal was more of a precaution, so that is good news. He has only missed five games his entire career that spans seven years. Forte will be 31 years old at the start of 2016. Still, Frank Gore has shown that Pro Bowl running backs can remain productive, and even he had a nice game this week despite being 32 years old (15 rushes for 85 yards, two touchdowns, two receptions for ten yards). Forte has been solid his entire career, and it might be time to re-think whether age matters as much for running backs with a Pro Bowl pedigree. He will be an unrestricted free agent in 2016, and contenders could consider acquiring him at a significant discount from age-biased dynasty owners. Since his 2008 rookie season, Forte has had only one season outside the top 15 running backs (PPR scoring). I’m a buyer, but for the right price (RB2 value or less).

Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA

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Tannehill injured his left leg and had it wrapped up after the game. It doesn’t sound serious, although he got beat up pretty good. He was apparently urinating blood last week. According to Pro Football Focus, the Miami offensive line is 31st in run blocking and 28th in pass blocking. Tannehill has been sacked 44 times, and that is the most in the NFL. As of week 16, Tannehill is the QB19 for 2015. He has struggled through a poor offensive line and a coaching carousel. Still, he has impressive talent at skill positions like DeVante Parker, Jarvis Landry (WR9 PPR) and Lamar Miller. If the Dolphins can get their organization out of chaos, Tannehill could be a bounce-back candidate in 2016. I’m a buyer at QB2 prices.

Ted Ginn Jr, WR CAR

Ginn left the game with what has been described as a calf and/or knee injury. Ginn was able to return to the game, so it doesn’t appear to be an issue. The Panthers may need to play their starters next week, as the Cardinals still have a chance at home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The NFL uses wild-card rules as tiebreakers for division leaders. Based on my evaluation, it looks like the Cardinals and Panthers are all tied with the top three variables (head-to-head, best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference, best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum four), but the Cardinals (per ESPN) have a slightly better strength of victory (0.446 for Cardinals vs 0.440 for Panthers). The Panthers have the better record at 14-1 versus 13-2 for the Cardinals, so if the Panthers win next week, they will get home field advantage in the playoffs. But, if the Panthers lose and the Cardinals win, it could get very interesting. It seems logical to me for the Panthers to play their starters week 17, and they get the Buccaneers at home while the Cardinals get the Seahawks at home. We’ll see if Ginn can play week 17, but based on his return to play this week, it seems like a reasonable expectation. I’m not a buyer though. Ginn is the WR26 in PPR this year, has had eight games with two catches or fewer this year and the Panthers will get Kelvin Benjamin back next year. 2015 may go down as Ginn’s best season as an NFL player, and I would consider selling him high if possible. If I could get a 2016 2nd for Ginn, I’d move him easily for that value.

Alshon Jeffery, WR CHI

Jeffery has had a rough year for dynasty players, and he was inactive in the most important game of the year. Jeffery finishes the 2015 fantasy season with nine games played, just four touchdowns, 807 yards on 54 receptions and is the WR38 this year. Ouch. That’s not much of a return on investment for such a highly valued player (WR10 and ADP12 as of November). To be fair, he still managed four 100+ yard games, and had a healthy number of receptions when he played. Excluding a week 15 stinker, he had 53 receptions in eight games, or 6.6 per game in that span, and that would put him in the top ten this year. He has had a wide-variety of injuries this year, but I’ll consider that an anomaly of soft-tissue ailments that may have predisposed him to additional injuries. I’m still a buyer in dynasty, and he might be slightly more affordable now.

Drew Brees, QB NO

Brees sustained a torn plantar fascia week 15 but was able to play in week 16. Brees had a solid game against a beatable Jaguars defense (412 yards passing, three touchdowns and no interceptions). Plantar fasciitis can be quite painful but should not destabilize the foot. The pain can, however, be disabling when severe, and it can be a nagging injury. six-12 weeks is the typical recovery period but it can drag on for awhile. I think Brees has a good chance of being healthy for the 2016 season, but there is still a chance it could drag into next season if it doesn’t heal as expected. Brees was able to play this week so that’s a good sign. Per Spotrac, Brees has an enormous cap hit of $30 million in 2016, and per Over The Cap, the Saints are already $4.1 million over a cap estimate of $150 million for 2016. At age 37 next year, Brees seems very likely to take a pay cut and/or get a restructured contract. Going back to 2007, Brees has never finished worse than a QB1. I’m a buyer if he’s available at a discount for contenders. I don’t expect Brees to leave New Orleans, although given New Orleans could save $20 million by cutting him, it’s not impossible for him to change teams. Elite quarterbacks aren’t very common and if Brees is available as a free agent, NFL teams will be knocking down his door for a chance to sign him. It should be an interesting off-season in New Orleans.

T.J. Yeldon, RB JAC

Yeldon was inactive this week recovering from an MCL sprain. I don’t expect this injury to adversely impact his dynasty value, but it could lower his price tag a bit in dynasty formats. Yeldon had 740 rushing yards on 182 carries (4.1 YPC), three touchdowns and 279 yards receiving with 29 receptions in 2015. Yeldon finished as the RB21 in PPR, and unless the Jaguars add a running back in the off-season, he is a rare bell-cow player at a position with little depth. I like Yeldon a lot and I think he will be undervalued going into the 2016 season. He’s a prime target for acquisition this off-season in dynasty formats. Yeldon is a strong buy for me.

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