Dynasty Stock Market: Wide Receiver Value

Ryan McDowell Posted On December 17, 2015

beckham After diving deep into the current dynasty value of quarterbacks and running backs the past two weeks, it’s now the wide receivers’ turn. The position has morphed into the cool kids of dynasty just like a nerd in a 1980’s teen rom-com. Yes, talented wideouts, even unproven, potentially talented wideouts are now the most coveted asset in dynasty leagues. I recall when I started playing dynasty, my picking pattern for every startup draft mirrored one another. I began with four consecutive running backs before grabbing my quarterback, and then finally my first wide receiver in the sixth round. I was not alone either. Hoarding any and all running backs and essentially ignoring wide receivers was the norm. Many things have changed this over the years, including the popularity of PPR scoring, the increase in committee running attacks in the NFL and the shrinking shelf life of running backs in general.

Enough of the history, let’s look at the present (and future) of the wide receiver position and how I’m currently valuing these players.

Tier One:

Unlike the running back and quarterback positions, my top tier of wideouts is a deep one, which is yet another reason the position is currently king when it comes to building a dynasty team. To create the most competitive team for the long haul, I want as many tier one wide receivers as possible and will gladly sacrifice talent at other positions to achieve that goal.

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WR1 Odell Beckham, NYG

WR2 DeAndre Hopkins, HOU

WR3 Julio Jones, ATL

WR4 Antonio Brown, PIT

WR5 Amari Cooper, OAK

WR6 Allen Robinson, JAX

WR7 Dez Bryant, DAL

WR8 Alshon Jeffery, CHI

WR9 AJ Green, CIN

WR10 Mike Evans, TB

WR11 Randall Cobb, GB

WR12 Demaryius Thomas, DEN

Some of these players are headed in different directions when it comes to their dynasty value, but all could be difference makers for your team. When I place players in the same tier, I am acknowledging that, for me, there is little difference between how I value those players. That is one reason I don’t always view rankings as a trade chart. Just because I rank Bryant above Jeffery doesn’t mean I would always be willing to make a one for one swap. In fact, I see little reason to trade any one of these players for another in the same tier. The exception might be my last two players in the tier, Cobb and Thomas, who are dangerously close to slipping to my second tier. Each of those players have disappointed this year, due in large part to a touchdown reception regression.

Some players, specifically Allen Robinson and Amari Cooper, might seem to be very high on my list, but I am big believers in the talent of both. Each have already helped to improve traditionally poor offenses. It is hard to ignore what Robinson has done this season, already scoring as the WR6 in PPR leagues. I won’t be surprised if we see a similar breakout from Cooper next season.

Even if you disagree with the order, it is hard to see any other player in the top four. Beckham, Hopkins, Jones and Brown have all been dominant through much of the season, living up to and even increasing their lofty dynasty value.

Tier Two:

WR13 Brandin Cooks, NO

WR14 Keenan Allen, SD

WR15 Sammy Watkins, BUF

WR16 Martavis Bryant, PIT

My second tier is obviously much smaller, comprised of four young wide receivers in their second or third year. Each of these have displayed elite level skills, but also have at least one reason to knock them, for now, from tier one consideration. Cooks began the year slowly and is currently in the midst of a touchdown binge, catching six in the past six games, after just four in his first 17 games.

Allen was off to an unreal start and looked to be on the way to matching his rookie season. Instead, he suffered a season ending injury. This, combined with his disappointing 2014 play pushes him out of my top group.

Things did not look good for Watkins last off-season. The team made what seemed to be offense unfriendly decisions regarding both the coaching staff and the quarterback. Watkins started the season slowly and dealt with some injury issues, but is back on track now and looking like a top option for dynasty owners.

Finally, Bryant has some off-field baggage following his four game suspension. While this has to be a concern, Bryant’s play on the field has almost made dynasty owners forget all about this.

All of these players could easily move into the top tier with continued high level play, but we have to be aware of their downside as well.

Tier Three:

I’ll go ahead and get this out of the way. I don’t feel confident about any of these players. The older players in this tier are very good, but have to be discounted due to that age. The younger players are unproven and lack the upside of the previously ranked wide receivers. This group of players are all closely valued on my board, even though it is a deep tier. Also, while I’m sure some of these players could and will move up into my second tier in the coming months, I currently see a rather large gap from WR16 (Bryant) to WR17 (Jordan Matthews.)

WR17 Jordan Matthews, PHI

WR18 TY Hilton, IND

WR19 Calvin Johnson, DET

WR20 Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN

WR21 Jarvis Landry, MIA

WR22 DeVante Parker, MIA

WR23 Donte Moncrief, IND

WR24 Brandon Marshall, NYJ

WR25 Jordy Nelson, GB

WR26 Eric Decker, NYJ

WR27 Davante Adams, GB

WR28 Allen Hurns, JAX

WR29 Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ

WR30 John Brown, ARZ

WR31 Jeremy Maclin, KC

WR32 Kelvin Benjamin, CAR

WR33 Josh Gordon, CLE

WR34 Julian Edelman, NE

There is a large number of sophomore wideouts in this group, seven to be exact. Most of those have not lived up to preseason expectation, counting the injured Benjamin in that group. Two of the more underrated second year players, Brown and Hurns, have moved way up my rankings over the past couple of months.

The “older” receivers can often be had at a discount, especially during the off-season, and they are proving to be league winners this season. We rarely see players over 26 gaining dynasty value, but that is the case for Marshall, Decker, Maclin and Edelman. Even though they’re playing some of the best football of their respective careers, I expect these players to still be relatively easy to acquire once the off-season is fully underway.

The younger players meanwhile, should be very costly, even if they have yet to do much on the field. I expect Green-Beckham to be a fast riser, especially if he can finish his rookie season on a hot streak. The same can be said for Parker in Miami.

Tier Four:

This is the last tier of players of real consequence and these will be the easiest players to target and acquire over the next nine months until meaningful football is back. The veterans could provide equivalent production to their more expensive counterparts and the younger players could breakout and quickly be valued in similar fashion to the under 26 year olds ranked in earlier tiers.

WR35 Breshad Perriman, BAL

WR36 Tyler Lockett, SEA

WR37 Stefon Diggs, MIN

WR38 Michael Floyd, ARZ

WR39 Nelson Agholor, PHI

WR40 Kevin White, CHI

WR41 Michael Crabtree, OAK

WR42 Kendall Wright, TEN

WR43 DeSean Jackson, WAS

WR44 Golden Tate, DET

WR45 Emmanuel Sanders, DEN

WR46 Phillip Dorsett, IND

WR47 Devin Funchess, CAR

WR48 Jaelen Strong, HOU

WR49 Tavon Austin, STL

WR50 Doug Baldwin, SEA

WR51 Travis Benjamin, CLE

WR52 Willie Snead, NO

WR53 Rueben Randle, NYG

WR54 Marvin Jones, CIN

WR55 Rishard Matthews, MIA

WR56 Devin Smith, NYJ

WR57 Torrey Smith, SF

WR58 Mike Wallace, MIN

WR59 Stevie Johnson, SD

WR60 Vincent Jackson, TB

WR61 Jamison Crowder, WAS

As always, my rankings, along with the full set of DLF Dynasty rankings can be found here.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.