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Weekly Twitter Observations

Luke Wetta Posted On December 12, 2015
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Each week I will be walking through the Twitterverse extracting some of the best commentary from trusted fantasy football minds. Twitter can be overwhelming with the amount of information that streams live, but it also proves to be one of the fastest and easiest ways to communicate. In 140 characters or less you can learn something about a player you may have never thought of fromtrends, stats or analysis.

Quote of the Week

I quite literally LOL’ed when this tweet came across my timeline. The next few minutes were spent thinking about the situation in St. Louis and all the depressing sentiments that surround the Rams. Mainly I pictured all of the Todd Gurley owners wringing their hands and not knowing what to do with the current consensus number one fantasy running back. The most recent two weeks have seen Gurley unusable in fantasy as the team has afforded him a combined 19 touches. The team then proceeded to fire their offensive coordinator and next man up, Rob Boras, exclaimed  Gurley was “too good a player” not to get him ball. But what really can fantasy owners do at this point? The quarterback situation is a total mess and likely the worst in the NFL (Cleveland fans may protest). The offensive line is subpar and after Gurley gashed his first four opponents for no less 128 rushing yards the stacked boxes followed. When teams like the Bengals and Cardinals jump out to early leads as well Gurley is removed from the playbook for some odd reason. He only has registered one catch the past weeks when he caught no fewer than three the previous four. The schedule does get a little easier the next two weeks and the Rams can hopefully stay in the game long enough to provide Gurley with more touches. Unfortunately championship week they play at Seattle and with the Seahawks rounding back into form I would find it hard recommending Gurley anywhere with so much on the line.

The team needs to find an answer at quarterback and their line during the offseason or the short-term future could see more of the same. Age, talent and the running back crop as a whole still make Gurley one of the best backs to own in fantasy, but the difference between one and ten may not be so different.

Martavis Bryant, WR PIT

[inlinead]As a Martavis Bryant owner I knew he had been playing well, but the number four wide receiver in fantasy?! Not that Bryant is an afterthought by any stretch, but playing alongside my fantasy number one wide receiver, Antonio Brown, does make it more difficult to grab the spotlight. This is particularly the case when your running mate is returning punts and performing exotic moves with the goal post. Either way Bryant has been able to continue his breakout performance from last season and parlayed it into a bigger role within the Steelers offense. I also would not immediately assume either the absence of Le’Veon Bell is affording Bryant with more opportunities. DeAngelo Williams has filled in for Bell almost seamlessly and has recorded four or more catches in four of the seven games he has started this season. To date Bryant is only averaging 4.5 receptions per game with a 50% catch rate, which definitely limits his upside in PPR formats.   But it is his ability to make defenders miss off simple screens or simply outrun and out-jump the competition that makes him so dangerous.

Ben Roethlisberger has been injured throughout the year but that still has also done little to slow Bryant’s pace. His biggest game of the season actually came with Landry Jones and Michael Vick at the helm in week 6. Bryant is still developing as a receiver and learning alongside Brown and Ben can only continue to improve his game. He likely will never be the high volume, high catch rate guy but his abilities and speed make for a unique player. While he may be a clear wide receiver one this season, I still would not be ranking him that high in dynasty. I do though place him as a high upside wide receiver two ahead of other players like Keenan Allen, Jordan Matthews and Brandin Cooks.

Doug Baldwin, WR SEA

No team has attempted fewer passes over the last three seasons than the Seattle Seahawks. That is why a player like Doug Baldwin normally gets overlooked in fantasy. The last four weeks have been a revelation though as Chris Raybon shared,

Baldwin has been a player never shy to vocalize his belief in his own talents and the lack of opportunities in Seattle could have been masking them to an extent. He is currently on pace to set career highs in both receptions and yards in his 5th season and has already scored 3 more touchdowns ever in a single year. The good news too is that three of those games were with Jimmy Graham still on the field so it is not that Doug has stepped up to fill a void. Graham was not lighting to world on fire anyway and his presence likely has helped Baldwin draw easier coverages. Russell Wilson is also on pace for career highs in passing this season so a continued uptick in production is feasible.

Overall though from a dynasty standpoint what are owners or buyers to do with Baldwin? When looking around at rankings for wide receivers, Baldwin is checking in around 70th overall on aggregate.   This seems much too low for a top target on a team despite the limited targets. Some of the names ahead of Baldwin currently include Andre Johnson, Percy Harvin, Victor Cruz and Mike Wallace. I would be valuing Baldwin much closer to 50th vs 70th overall and most likely rankings have not caught up to his current production or outlook. Baldwin’s ceiling will always be limited in Seattle and his still is signed through 2016 so his immediate future is tied to that offense.

Matt Ryan, QB ATL

The quarterback position is becoming easier to find value and replace perceived top level talent in fantasy football. That is why a guy like Matt Ryan is no longer a prized possession in lineups on a weekly basis. Ryan has been very consistent in recent years averaging around 4,600 yards and 28 touchdowns per season. In 2015 Ryan may fall just shy of the 4,600 yard mark but the touchdowns are definitely taking a nose dive. Looking across the Twitter landscape everyone is taking notice of Ryan’s struggles and lack of fantasy production.

Coming into the year many believed that new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan would only improve Ryan’s statistics and with a healthy Julio Jones the sky was the limit. Unfortunately Ryan’s play has appeared to digress as his turnovers have increased and he is making costly mistakes dropping his team out of playoff contention. Part of the reason may be the fact that outside of Jones, there are no other reliable wide receivers for Ryan to go to (sorry Roddy White). Surprisingly Ryan is also not targeting Julio when scoring opportunities arise and the receiver recently made his opinions public on the lack of touchdown production. This season is may end up being a lost year for Ryan and as Summerlin pointed out he really has only become a matchup option in fantasy. The team is still rebuilding and more time in the new offensive could see Ryan bounce back in 2016. The problem is that Ryan’s ceiling appears to no longer be good enough to pay for in fantasy. Too many other signal callers are able to replicate or out produce the 30 year old quarterback. The main takeaway for me moving forward is that in leagues only relying on one quarterback to man their weekly lineups, the difference between fifth and fifteenth in rankings may be nothing more than who has the better matchup in a given week.

Thank you to 4for4.com, Football Outsiders, Football Guys and NFL Savant for some of the stats used within this article. All are great resources still available for the average fantasy fan and highly recommended.

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Luke Wetta
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