Rookie Report Card: Javorius Allen
Each week throughout the season, I’ll cover one or two rookies in the Rookie Report Card and try to always include the biggest performers from that particular week. On top of reviewing my expectations for each player coming into the league and covering how he’s performed at the NFL level to this point, I’ll actually give him a grade in three categories. Those categories are performance to date, 2015 potential and long term upside.
The series continues with a look at Javorius Allen.
Javorius Allen, RB BAL
Week 13 Stats: 17 carries, 63 rushing yards, 12 receptions, 107 receiving yards, one touchdown reception
Allen was an interesting prospect coming out of USC. Although there were parts of his game that suggested he could be a fulltime tailback at the next level, there were also some question marks surrounding him. Let’s start with the positives.
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The first thing that pops off the screen when I watched Allen over the summer was his quickness at the line of scrimmage. With a strong first step, he has the acceleration to blast through running lanes and the agility to shake linebackers and safeties at the second level. Showing an impressive jump cut on multiple occasions, he’s able slide into hole and quickly blast through it.
His burst doesn’t only help him between the tackles, it also assists him to get the edge on perimeter runs. Surprisingly quick to the outside considering his size (6’-0”, 221 pounds), he doesn’t waste any time when running outside the tackles and shows the ability to quickly change direction when he finds his running lane.
Also displaying good hands while at USC, Allen proved that he could be an asset in the passing game. Those skills as a pass catcher along with his ability to handle a 20-plus carry workload as well as his responsibilities as a pass protector led many to believe he may have what it takes to be a fulltime runner on Sundays.
However, I wasn’t convinced Allen could be that guy.
Although he has impressive quickness in small spaces for a guy his size, he also lacks power for a tailback built as well as he is. Choosing to run around tacklers rather than through them, he doesn’t run behind his pads well and takes far too many big hits due to his upright running style. Overall, he doesn’t run with much power, and loses speed when taking on defenders which hurts his ability to get yards after contact.
On top of the lack of power he showed regularly while in college, he also had trouble at times with vision. Far better when holes develop in front of him, he struggles seeing back side running lanes which forces him to stutter rather than hitting the hole and even run into his offensive lineman at times.
As I mentioned above, there were things to like about Allen’s game coming out of USC, such as his acceleration and change of direction skills. When he posted only average numbers in the 3-cone drill (6.96 seconds) and 20-yard shuttle (4.28 seconds) at the combine, many started to question this strengths and it kept him from being named in the same breath as the second tier tailbacks in the 2015 draft. Needless to say, it wasn’t surprising he was selected among the third wave of runners taken in the draft – when he was drafted late in the fourth round by the Ravens.
After struggling throughout training camp, he averaged just 2.5 yards per carry on 35 totes during the preseason and was public scrutinized by head coach John Harbaugh for problems with fumbling. He looked sluggish and lacked burst. Nonetheless, he started the season as the primary backup to Justin Forsett and is now in the lead role after Forsett was lost for the season due to a broken arm a few weeks ago.
Since he took over as the primary tailback in week 11 against the Rams, Allen tallied 185 rushing yards on 51 carries (3.6 YPC) and hasn’t found the end zone as a runner. Despite his struggles in that department however, he’s come through for fantasy owners, catching 21 passes for 174 yards and a pair of touchdowns over that span.
His biggest game to date came on Sunday when he lit up the Dolphins for 170 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown on 29 touches (including 12 catches.) The biggest play came early in the second half on second-and-six from the 41 yard line. Miami brought a blitz and there was a bust in coverage as nobody followed the tailback into the right flat. Quarterback Matt Schaub floated the ball over the oncoming rushers and Allen hauled it in before racing down the right sideline for the long score.
The rookie showed good speed on the play and made a nice stop-and-go move to evade safety Michael Thomas but to be frank, the play was a busted coverage and more of a bad play by the Dolphins’ defense than it was a good one by Allen and the Ravens.
With the exception of that catch and run, it was an extremely mediocre day. With “Captain Check Down” Schaub under center and constantly dumping the ball off, he continued to catch underneath passes. Outside of his sprint down the sideline, he averaged just 5.09 yards per catch on his 11 grabs. Add that to the modest 3.7 yards per carry that he averaged on his 17 carries and Allen’s game simply wasn’t that impressive.
If it seems like I’m trying to pour cold water on a good fantasy performance, I’m not. Instead, I’m saying just that. Allen had a good fantasy performance, racking up a whopping 34 fantasy points in PPR leagues. At the same time however, he played a very lackluster football game.
Overall, he has been nothing more than a replacement level tailback during his rookie season. He’s been a reliable pass catcher and shown that he can handle a large workload, but has been indecisive as a runner and has struggled to make defenders miss.
Although he’s playing with very little around him, he has looked like an average talent. While he’s turned that talent into good fantasy production over the last few weeks, that’s only happening due to the sheer volume he’s been getting since Forsett got hurt.
Because he’s playing the role of a lead tailback, he should be valued as an RB2/flex play in the short term but there’s little chance that upside extends into next season. Even if the 30-year old Forsett isn’t back, the Ravens should be looking for a better option in the off-season and second year tailback Lorenzo Taliaferro will return from a foot injury to compete for playing time.
From everything I’ve seen from Allen, we’ve already witnessed his upside. Fantasy owners should take advantage of his workload in the coming weeks because it’s unlikely he ever sees it again.
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