Sunday Morning Huddle: Week 13

Mike Valverde

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Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week since that’s not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game. Also, a “Number to Remember” will be provided that will center on a key statistic that will influence the game and your dynasty team.

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Early Games

New York Jets at New York Giants

Number to Remember (NTR) –19

Both teams share home field advantage, and both are fighting a .500 record as the Jets are 6-5 while the Giants are 5-6. This may come down to who can take advantage in the passing game. The Giants are (8th) in that offensive department, and the Jets are (11th) against the pass. This may be deceiving as the Jets have allowed six 300+ yard performances in their last eight contests while the Giants have thrown for less than 220-yards in three of their past five matchups.

There is no doubting that both teams will be going to the air, as Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall is key to giving Ryan Fitzpatrick passing lanes. While, Odell Beckham Jr does the same for Eli Manning. Also, don’t forget about Rueben Randle as he plays a key role and should get some volume of targets while Beckham draws double-coverage.

Looking at the last four games, Randle has drawn 24 targets but obviously it’s the ODB show with his 56. Beckham has played great as he has over 100+ yards receiving in his last games, after only breaking the century mark twice in his first eight. He also has scored five touchdowns in the last four games, while only scoring four times in his fist seven games.

Marshall has 117 targets catching 71 of them while Decker has 85 targets and has caught 51 passes.

Arizona at St. Louis

NTR –11

The Rams have only won two of their last seven, and the Cardinals have won six of seven.

The Cardinals rely much more on the passing games, and they like to spread the ball around to different receivers, but the main target is Larry Fitzgerald, who is targeted on 29.1 percent of the passing plays. On the season, Fitzgerald has 111 total targets with 83 receptions for 992 yards and seven touchdowns. John Brown and Michael Floyd make up another 29 percent combined, and together have 73 receptions for 1,105 yards and nine touchdowns. Carson Palmer has been lights out with 3,337 yards passing and a 27:9 touchdown to interception ratio.

The Rams are going to have to rely on Todd Gurley and pray that the defense can swing things around. Gurley also has slumped, but not because of his talent, but because the Rams have no quarterback or receivers and never mind their poor offensive line.

The Rams offensive unit has caught 194 passes for 2,093 yards and eight touchdowns. Tavon Austin leads the team in receptions with 37 and tight end Jared Cook is second with 30. The Rams, therefore, have to be about the running game and being defensively rugged.

The play has slowed down on the defensive front because, they are just gassed from being on the field all the time. Gurley’s numbers are reflective of this. In his first four complete games, Gurley rushed for 566 yards with three touchdowns. Last week against Cincinnati he had just nine carries for 19 yards.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay

NTR –16 and 22

This game will be a rematch of the November 1st game where the Buccaneers defeated the Falcons 23-20. Atlanta was (6-1) facing the Bucs, and now are in a four-game tailspin.

Matt Ryan has been bad this season. He only has tossed 16 touchdowns in 11 games, while throwing 12 interceptions. He has only five multiple-game touchdowns and has gone over 300+ yards just three times.

Jameis Winston, on the other hand, has played probably better than most people would believe. He has 16 touchdowns but has thrown ten interceptions. Winston has been less effective in passing yards and completion rate. Ryan has been hitting on a 65.9 percent rate while Winston has been good on 58 percent of his passing attempts. He has 2,650 yards in the air while Ryan has 3,212 yards.

Winston also has a nice crew of wide receivers at his disposal. Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson make a good tandem. Julio Jones in comparison has 94 receptions for 1,245 yards and six touchdowns while the Bucs tandem of Evans and Jackson has 78 receptions for 1,230 yards and five touchdowns. The dispersion is key here as Jones gets 32.7 of the action his way while Mike Evans (26.3) and Vincent Jackson (13.7) get 40 percent.

Seattle at Minnesota

NTR –146.4 and 144.2

This game is going to be won on the ground as both Seattle and Minnesota hold some of the top tier talents in that department. Even though Marshawn Lynch is most likely out for the season, Thomas Rawls who is an undrafted rookie has picked up where Lynch has left off.

Both teams rank first and second in the rushing department as the Vikings are the best with 146.4 yards rushing per game. The Seahawks are not far behind with 144.2 yards on the ground. I almost want to ignore the passing game here. Russell Wilson and Teddy Bridgewater are more game type manager quarterbacks, but there is no denying that Wilson gets the job done more frequently.

The Vikings are going to have to break down the wall of the Seahawks defense that allows just 92.9 yards per game and are fourth in the NFL. Neither of these things matters to Adrian Peterson, as he is having one of his typical seasons. He has 1,164 yards on 237 attempts (4.9 yards per carry) and eight touchdowns. He has six 100-yard running games, including a 203-yard effort against the Raiders. In his last five games, he has broken the century mark four times.

Rawls has outproduced Lynch this season. Rawls has 685 yards and three touchdowns whereas Lynch finished with 417 yards and three touchdowns. Where Rawls falters is in the passing game. In his 11 games played he has six receptions. He also has a 200-yard game as he went for 209 yards against the 49ers. He also has scored in his last two games.

San Francisco at Chicago

NTR – 20 and 32

This game could turnout to be the ugliest game on the morning slate, most likely depending on what team the Bears have to show up. Interestingly the Bears have not fared well in Soldier Field while San Francisco has struggled on the road. In their last four games, Chicago has won three, but all were on the road and had lost 11 of 14 at home. San Francisco has not won on the road all season (0-5).

Both offenses have been particularly bad. The Bears are ranked 20th overall and are 16th in running and 20th in passing. San Francisco is 32nd overall in offense and are 20th in rushing and 28th in the passing game. The Bears are however significantly better in both departments. When looking at the running game, Chicago brings Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford, the 49ers has castoff Shaun Draughn.

The new 49ers running back came to the team after Carlos Hyde went down, and has taken over the bell-cow role. He has 146 yards on 43 attempts that are not all that impressive (3.4 yards per carry average), but he also adds to the running game. He has 17 receptions for 113 yards in just three games played.

Forte and Langford are both talented running backs, but both cancel each other out as neither are the bell-cow. Forte will get the start and play most downs, Langford is better in goal line situations for the goal line, and can also catch passes, meaning Langford can be in long series stretches down the field.

Jacksonville at Tennessee

NTR – 23 and 22

There are some young bucks in this matchup of the November 19th game, where Jacksonville came away victorious 19-13. Jacksonville and Tennessee both boast some of the youngest talents that we get to see in the same game. Neither team is very good, so why not focus on some of the key players.

Jacksonville brings in Blake Bortles, T.J. Yeldon, Allen Robinson, Julius Thomas, and Allen Hurns, who will be out due to injury. Bortles who is in his second year and is just 23-years-old has developed quite nicely. He finished his rookie season with 11 touchdowns and 17 interceptions and had turned that into 22 touchdowns and just 13 interceptions this season. The Jaguars also have Yeldon, who has been a fun rookie to watch. He does it all and will be a bell-cow back for many seasons. On the year, Yeldon has 621 yards rushing but just one touchdown. He also adds to the passing game with 31 receptions for 199 yards and a touchdown.

Tennessee brings rookie Marcus Mariota (22 years old) to the front. Many speculators wondered if he could make the transition as a quarterback and if he was not talented just because of the system, he was in at Oregon. Mariota has squashed all negatives and has played a great season. In nine games, he has 2,244 yards passing with a 16 to 8 touchdown to interception ratio. This is even more impressive when you factor in that the Titans leading receiver is a tight end, Delanie Walker.

Houston at Buffalo

NTR – 1909 and 680

Don’t know if too many people would have thought that the Texans and Bills would be battling to stay alive for the playoffs this deep in the season. This game could come down to the quarterback play as both teams have interesting stories in their signal callers and who can do more for their team, LeSean McCoy or DeAndre Hopkins.

The Bills will need to rely on Tyrod Taylor not making mistakes and getting the plays done when needed, but it’s going to be the McCoy show. Taylor will most likely go to be running for his life as JJ Watt will be going after him.

McCoy has slipped a little bit in the past two games after rushing for 100+ yards on the 8th and 12th of November. He has faced stiff defenses in the last month, as the Bills have played the Dolphins, Jets, Patriots, and Chiefs. The Dolphins being the only non-top ten defense against the run. On the season, McCoy has a total of 680 yards rushing with three touchdowns to go along with 27 receptions for 249 yards and two touchdowns.

Taylor has been impressive himself as he has completed 66 percent of his passes for 1,960 yards and 14 touchdowns. Even better, he has only thrown four interceptions. He is a playmaker as he can move around the pocket and find the open receiver. I would like to have more faith in Sammy Watkins, but he is too much of a boom or bust athlete.

Brian Hoyer has also been surprisingly efficient. The Texans fought hard not making him the starting quarterback as they wanted the younger Ryan Mallett to take the reigns. They soon learned that Mallett was a malcontent and moved away from him. Hoyer has 1,909 yards in his eight games played with 15 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He has only one 300-yard game, but he has been able to put points on the board. He has ten touchdowns in the last five games. This is the Texans are going to need to take advantage of the Bills as they are 21st against the pass.

Look for Hoyer to connect with Hopkins a bunch. Hopkins has been on a great ride this season, as he keeps getting better each year. He already has 81 receptions for 1,081 yards and nine touchdowns. Hopkins has broken the century yard mark five times and has double-digit receptions twice. Look for him to bounce back after the clunker he put up against New Orleans (5-36-0)

Baltimore at Miami

NTR – 4

The Dolphins have gone some changes this season. Both the head coach and offensive coordinator have been terminated, and interims have been brought into place. The Dolphins now will rely more on the running game and give Ryan Tannehill more freedom to audible and call plays. The Ravens have lost their starting running back, wide receiver, and quarterback this season. Is it any wonder why both teams have only four wins?

Lamar Miller might be counted on for a heavy load, and watch Jay Ajayi spell him often. Both are talented backs, and Ajayi might even be more talented. Miller has been impressive all season, even with only 119 attempts he has 567 yards (4.8 yards per carry) and five touchdowns. He also has 38 receptions for 341 yards and two touchdowns.

The other component to the offense is Jarvis Landry. He has been special this season, as he has caught 76 receptions for 816 yards with four touchdowns. He blasted the Jets last week for 165 yards on 13 receptions with a touchdown. In November, he has been excellent, as he has 34 receptions for 350 yards and two touchdowns.

The Ravens obviously cannot rely on the arm and “pick-six master” Matt Schaub. Their offense must come through rookie “Buck” Allen. He has 76 attempts on the season with 304 yards but has not scored a touchdown. He has 17 receptions for 135 yards and one touchdown. Allen is not going to blaze a trail when he runs, but he has some power and good hands.

When future Hall-of-Fame wide receiver Steve Smith Sr went down for the year, it opened up a window for Kamar Aiken. He has made the most out of his new role catching 43 passes for 536 yards and four touchdowns. He entered the league in 2011, and has bounced around since then, but he may have found a home in Baltimore.

Cincinnati at Cleveland

NTR- 9 and 2

This game may be over by halftime as both teams bring in opposite records. The Bengals have been rolling with Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, and Tyler Eifert while the running backs give a nice 1-2 punch. The Browns lost Josh McCown for the season, and Johnny Manziel will most likely lead the team after serving a consequence for being himself. The Browns will most likely take the next five games to see if he is any starting quarterback qualities. Cleveland does a bright spot in Duke Johnson, and Gary Barnidge has only been the reliable go-to receiver.

Cincinnati will probably be without Eifert this week, which means more targets to Green and Marvin Jones. Passing, however, will most likely take a back seat this week. Green has 65 receptions for 909 yards and five touchdowns but has slipped lately. Before the St. Louis game, Green had just one touchdown in seven contests with just one double-digit reception game.

Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard will do the mixture of goal line work and passing duties. Hill has seven touchdowns on the season, where Bernard is fourth in receptions on the team with 36.

For Cleveland to win this game, they are going to need to control the clock and not make errors via the quarterback position. This situation is even uglier than the Browns record. McCown went down for the season, and Manziel cannot stay sober or honest. More than likely, it will Austin Davis that gets the start this game. He performed well after McCown was injured and connected on seven of ten passes for a touchdown and 77 yards.

Afternoon Games

Kansas City at Oakland

NTR- 57 and 58

This is a huge game for both teams. Not only does just one game separate them, and this is the first meeting this season.

The Chiefs have one of the better run offenses in football as they average 124.3 yards per game. They have had a turnstile to that position. Jamaal Charles went down for the season, and Chacandrick West also was injured, so in stepped Spencer Ware. Nobody will be Charles, but both West and Ware have done well in replacement. The Raiders have struggled to defend the run, but they are not as bad as their 27th ranking shows. They went on a streak of five-straight games not allowing a total of 100 yards on the ground. What has killed them was allowing a total of 585 yards to the Bengals, Steelers, and Vikings.

We all know how conservative the Chiefs are in the passing department. Alex Smith is going to deliver 250 yards a game with one touchdown and no interceptions. The question is who will get the touchdown. Jeremy Maclin has three this season and has caught 57 passes for 772 yards. Travis Kelce is right behind him with 54 receptions for 689 yards and four touchdowns.

The Raiders have more offensive power than the Chiefs but lack in the running game. Derek Carr has been up and down this season, but it has been mostly ups for the second year quarterback. His touchdown to interception ratio is 24 to 6 which is just spectacular. He has six games where he has thrown over 300 yards and eight games where he has completed multiple touchdowns. In those eight games, there have been three games where he has thrown three touchdowns and two where he tossed four.

Carr’s biggest asset has to be rookie Amari Cooper, who has been splendid himself. Cooper has 58 receptions for 851 yards and four touchdowns. Carr also has another option that has made a great comeback from a downer year last season. Michael Crabtree has 61 receptions for 715 yards and six touchdowns.

Latavius Murray has improved the Raiders running game, but he also stifled it. He has only rushed for two 100-yard games and seeing the goal line is rare for the speedster. On the season, Murray has only four rushing touchdowns and only two in the last six games. He is an added benefit to the passing game. He has caught 27 balls for 156 yards.

Denver at San Diego

NTR –61.3

The Chargers season has been over for a while now while the Broncos seem to keep winning somehow. Last week, they gave the New England Patriots their first loss. This game could easily be billed old lion vs. young lion, and Brock Osweiler is going to need to step it up.

The Broncos are going to try to air out against a poor San Diego passing defense, and run when needing to control the clock. Osweiler has demonstrated that he will not waver. He took the Broncos to victory after they were behind 14 points last week. Osweiler has 666-yards passing with four touchdowns and has completed 61.3 percent of his passes.

Look for both Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas to be involved heavily in this game. Thomas struggled last week against Logan Ryan, as he only caught one pass on 15 targets and had just 16 receptions in the last four games. Sanders was key in the Broncos victory catching six passes for 113 yards. When Sanders has been healthy, it seems he has gotten the better of Thomas all season.

The Chargers are going to be throwing the ball for two reasons. One, they will be behind most of the game and two, they are much better in the passing game than running with it. Philip Rivers and the half-backs have been dealing with probably the worst offensive line in the NFL. Rivers has been masterful this season with 3,511 yards and a 23 to 8 touchdown to interception ratio.

Rivers likes to find Danny Woodhead, who is second in receptions for the Chargers and his new favorite Steve Johnson, who is rising fast. Johnson has 21 receptions in the last three games and one touchdown.

Philadelphia at New England

NTR –49

New England and their number one ranked passing offense will be waiting for the Eagles to land. Philadelphia is the 12th ranked offense, and New England is the 2nd so expect fireworks on the scoreboard. The over/under has this game at 49 points, which is the second most on the docket for week 13.

You more than likely don’t want to be the team to face the Patriots after a loss. The team probably has to go through hell all week and are looking for redemption. It will be a little more difficult for the Tom Brady as he will be without Rob Gronkowski.

Look for Danny Amendola to get an increase in targets as a bucket load will be around since “Gronk” is out this week. Brady will also get Brandon LaFell involved and also look for Scott Chandler. The Patriots rely on the tight end to make everything go round, and Chandler is a good receiving weapon. Against the Broncos, he had five receptions for 58 yards and a touchdown.

With the Eagles look for Sam Bradford to return from injury. He has had been miserable this season, as he has 11 touchdowns with ten interceptions in 335 passing attempts. Fortunately for Bradford, his backup Mark Sanchez was worse. The Eagles passing offense is ranked 15th while their rushing is 12th, but if you ask anyone, it has looked much worse than what the numbers state.

DeMarco Murray has had his ups and downs in this offense, and right now it’s a down note. His 545 yards and four touchdowns are not what anyone expected in this supposed explosive offense. He is second on the team in receptions with 39. Last week against the Detroit Lions he had just 30 yards on 14 carries. His last touchdown was three weeks ago and hasn’t rushed for 100+ yards since he faced the Giants in October.

Carolina at New Orleans

NTR –13 and 3

Another explosive game in the works for the afternoon game. This has the highest over/under for the week at 50 total points. The Saints are 13th in points scored with 261 while Carolina is third with 332.

The Panthers have the 17th best offense, but they win through the defense as they are second overall. The Saints don’t have a defense, so they must win through their offense. They have the third-ranked overall offense, and the 31st ranked defensive unit.

Drew Brees is going to have to find a way to make a dent into the defense of the Carolina Panthers. They are stingy against the run and pass. Panthers are allowing just over 300 yards of total offense. It will even harder for Brees as he will be missing Willie Snead. Therefore, Benjamin Watson and Brandin Cooks will be more involved.

The Panthers have probably the worst wide receiving corps in football right now and doesn’t even matter. Greg Olsen leads the team in receptions, and he has almost twice the amount as second place, Ted Ginn. Olsen also leads in yards and touchdowns. Carolina is not a team to air it out; they are a defensively controlled ground and pound unit.

Jonathan Stewart leads the group with 832-yards rushing and four touchdowns, but we know that the running game is more about Cam Newton than any other runner. Newton has 427-yards rushing and seven touchdowns.

Sunday Night Game

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh

NTR- 47

This game will come down to the battle of the quarterbacks. Both teams bring in their AARP representatives, and both signal callers are going in different directions.

Matt Hasselbeck has been nearly perfect winning his four starts and has passed for 1,023 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions in his four games. Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t been all that terrific he has thrown for just 11 touchdowns and has nine interceptions in seven games played.

The offenses are both solid. Pittsburgh has more points scored (266) to the Colts (249) while the Colts have allowed (260) points and the Steelers have been tougher with just (230) points given up. Indianapolis will continue their short-passing uptempo offense while Pittsburgh will try to contain the passing game and put pressure on Hasselbeck. Depending on what Roethlisberger shows up could make all the difference.

Both teams display a talented wide receiver crew. Antonio Brown is probably the best of both bunches. He has been hampered statistically with bad quarterback production, but he still has an 85/1192/5 slash line. Martavis Bryant has missed much of the season due to a suspension but has produced 27 receptions for 509 yards and five touchdowns in six games played. Heath Miller also adds to the mix with 39 catches for 390 yards and one touchdown.

The Colts have T.Y. Hilton (51-819-5), Donte Moncrief (52-584-5), and Coby Fleener (39-352-2). As you can see both teams are close to being equitable in the passing game. They differ however in the running game. The Steelers lost Le’Veon Bell for the season and have veteran DeAngelo Williams. The Colts will march out Frank Gore and his beat-up self.

Williams has played well in the Steelers blocking scheme. He has 115 attempts for 563 yards and six touchdowns. Gore has 181 attempts for 657 yards and four touchdowns.

Monday Night Game

Dallas at Washington

NTR –11.6

The Cowboys are dead in the water, and the Washington Redskins are in first place in the NFC East. How many of you saw that coming in week one? Both offenses are horrible. The Redskins have 241 total points that are 21st, and they allow the 30th most points to opposing offenses. For the Cowboys, they have only scored 204 points that are 29th, and allow only 261 points for 18th in the league.

Dez Bryant is the only Cowboy right now on offense that has any significance to watching. Unfortunately, he will have to rely on Matt Cassel throwing him the ball. Darren McFadden has some value, but his 3.8 yards per carry average and just two rushing touchdowns is not something dreams are made of when casting your fantasy roster. He does add points in the passing game as he has 31 receptions for 257-yards.

For the Redskins, it’s about Kirk Cousins not making mistakes and keeping pace with his 68.4 completion rate. Jordan Reed leads the team in receptions (55), yards (541) and touchdowns (6). Jamison Crowder looks promising, but he is a slot guy, and won’t put up many touchdowns. He only has one score in the season and has come crashing down in the last three weeks.

*All numbers courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference and CBS Sports

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mike valverde
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