I don’t know about you, but last week’s Thanksgiving meal left me feeling… unsatisfied. Our turkey was dry, the stuffing flavorless, the green bean casserole was decent, but the pumpkin pie was just awful. If you’re not picking up what I’m putting down, I’m referring to the theme of our stacks last week.
Matt Ryan rode the struggle bus, while only targeting Julio Jones only seven times. The tandem missed value by over 32 points, making for the nastiest turkey I’ve ever had. It clearly wasn’t a free range, non-GMO bird.
The stuffing, Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald, was flavorless and soggy. Somehow, the 49ers defense held Palmer to his lowest scoring output of the year, and the only one where he has not thrown a touchdown pass. Fitzgerald tied his season high with ten receptions, but only mustered 66 yards.
As I predicted, Travis Benjamin had a bounce back week, scoring 19 points, including his first touchdown reception since week four. Unfortunately, Josh McCown had very little production and didn’t even throw the 42 yard score to Benjamin. That was Austin Davis, who came in to relieve McCown after he suffered a broken collarbone, landing him on injured reserve this week. McCown and Benjamin ended up missing value by 3.92 points, but the quarterback production was far below value.
Brian Hoyer and DeAndre Hopkins weren’t the delicious desert we were hoping for. Hoyer was efficient, going 21 for 27, without scoring many fantasy points. Hopkins tied his season low for receptions, had the lowest amount of targets and yardage output he’s had all year. He really threw all of those consistency statistics I listed right in my face.
To recap, Palmer was our best option at quarterback, finishing behind 17 others, and only one of our receivers had a top 12 day. The rest were relegated to WR3 territory or worse. It was a difficult week, to say the least. However, as I said several weeks ago, bad weeks will happen. The process was sound, so we chalk this one up to the game being difficult to predict. After all, we are only picking eight players here from a field of several hundred. Let’s make this a better week.
Remember, these stacks are intended for guaranteed prize pools with more than 50 entries.
Eli Manning, QB NYG
Odell Beckham Jr, WR NYG
The Giants play an away game against the Jets this week. So, they have an away game at their own stadium. This should end up feeling like a neutral sight game. I imagine game flow will greatly effect which team really feels like the home team. This could lead to an advantage for the Giants and Manning ($7,600). [inlinead]
Manning has been fantastic in the fourth quarter this year, throwing eight touchdown passes and only one interception. Beckham ($9,400) has over 100 receiving yards in four games straight and a touchdown in three out of four. He moves all over the field, where he will be able to create mismatches against a banged up Jets secondary. I try not to chase last week’s points, but this doesn’t appear to be a week to see any regression.
Andy Dalton, QB CIN
AJ Green, WR CIN
I’m afraid to go back through the 11 out 12 weeks where I’ve written this article, but I would venture to guess there’s been a Bengals stack in close to half of them. There’s good reason. Dalton ($8,000) has been a QB1 seven weeks this year, is seventh in points per game among quarterbacks and sixth in total scoring. He’s having a career year.
Enter the dreadful Browns defense, a bottom ten team against wide receivers and bottom eight against quarterbacks. Four weeks ago, Dalton and Tyler Eifert beat them for three scores in a game where Green ($8,400) was held in check. Eifert is not expected to play this week after suffering a stinger last week against the Rams. Green will be left as the unquestioned primary target in and out of the redzone. His tall, lanky body should have a good game against the diminutive Browns secondary.
Stack of the Weak
Matt Hasselbeck, QB IND
TY Hilton, WR IND
Hasselbeck ($6,500) and Hilton ($7,300) have a few key things going in their favor this week. They are seven point underdogs in Pittsburgh, where they will need to rely on the passing attack in a game with a high projected point total. The Steelers defense is the second worst against opposing wide receivers and seventh worst to quarterbacks. The Colts need to win this game in order to stay atop the AFC South. And Hilton is coming off of his second best game of the season.
There is much to show a good potential output in this game. Hasselbeck has 25 other quarterbacks priced higher than him, and he has 20 point potential. Hilton has been boom or bust, but that should keep his ownership fairly low in a game where he is away and not playing for the favorite. This is a bit of a contrarian stack, but one with great upside.
Matt Schaub, QB BAL
Kamar Aiken, WR BAL
When I started putting this week’s stacks together, I initially liked Schaub ($6,200) and Aiken ($6,100). The Dolphins have played poorly against quarterbacks and average against receivers. The Dolphins are favorites, so the Ravens should be throwing the ball to help them come-from-behind. In general, the Dolphins have been a disappointing team. It just seems to make sense that Schaub and Aiken put up some numbers.
I do think they will, but more Aiken meeting value than Schaub. Aiken could have a 6/100/1 game and meet value. I think Schaub will probably have a pretty pedestrian day with the strong Ravens running game bowling over the Dolphins poor run defense. There we have the biggest reason I don’t like this stack: the running game. This is probably a game where the ground game controls the Dolphins defense. As a Dolphins fan, I would probably make them a home underdog. If I’m going to roster anyone on the Ravens roster, I would probably focus on Javorius Allen ($6,800).